Question:
In the final statement issued by the European Union at its summit in the capital, Brussels, on June 23 and 24, 2022, under the title "Eastern Mediterranean" regarding Turkey's relationship with Greece and specifically the dispute over the Aegean Sea islands: ("The European Union expresses deep concern about Turkey's recent statements and actions. Turkey must show respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all EU member states..." Voice of America, 2022/6/24). In response, Turkey stated in a press release published by its Ministry of Foreign Affairs: ("The adoption of a biased, visionless, and unrealistic stance regarding our country in the decisions adopted during the summit of EU heads of state and government is regrettable. It is unacceptable for the EU to attempt to legitimize extremist and illegal theses contrary to international law regarding the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean..." Anadolu Agency, 2022/6/24). Does this mean that tension has returned to the relations between Turkey and Greece again? Could this lead to a war between them even though both are in NATO? Furthermore, what is the position of America, which leads this alliance? Can it remove this tension and calm things down, or will this tension continue to escalate?
Answer:
To clarify the answer, we review the following matters:
There are about 1,800 small and large islands and rock formations in the Aegean Sea, about 100 of which are inhabited, and only 24 islands have an area of more than 100 km². These islands began to come under the sovereignty of Islam and the authority of Muslims along with the Greek lands when Muhammad al-Fatih, may Allah have mercy on him, began the conquests there starting from 1456 CE after he carried out the great conquest of Istanbul, the capital of the Eastern Romans, in 1453 CE. However, when weakness began to appear in the Ottoman State as an Islamic state, the Kafir (disbelieving) countries exploited the situation and began to conspire against the Islamic State. They incited the Greeks to revolt against it; indeed, Britain, France, and Russia intervened directly in a naval war against it to separate Greece from it until that was achieved in 1830 CE. Yet, sovereignty over many islands remained with the Ottoman State until Italy occupied the Menteshe Islands in 1912 during the war in Libya, which are referred to as the Dodecanese islands—originally 14 islands, plus ten small islands and rock clusters. These islands gained importance due to their proximity to the Turkish borders after the division in the Treaty of Lausanne; some are about 3 km away from Turkey, while they are about 500 km away from the nearest Greek coast. These islands were granted to Italy in the Treaty of Lausanne, which was signed by the Ankara government headed by Mustafa Kemal through his representative Ismet Inonu. They ceded vast Ottoman territories and settled for what is known as present-day Turkey, which was defined by the Allies led by Britain. Italy gained recognition from Britain for its right to the islands in exchange for entering World War I on its side against Germany and the Ottoman State. In 1947, a peace agreement was signed in Paris between the Allied powers and Italy after the latter's defeat in World War II. The agreement stipulated the handover of the Menteshe (Dodecanese) islands to Greece on the condition that they be demilitarized. Turkey demands negotiations to determine the fate of many disputed islands and small islands whose ownership was not officially transferred to any country under previous agreements, while Greece claims its right to all the Aegean islands except for some islands returned to Turkey under the Treaty of Lausanne only. Greece also demands an increase in its territorial waters from 6 miles to 12 miles. Turkey remains subject to the Paris Agreement and agrees with it, even though it was not a party to it and did not sign it! Its Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said in an interview with Hurriyet newspaper on 2022/5/26: "Greece must adhere to the 1947 peace treaty, which allows only a small military unit of Greek soldiers to be present in the Dodecanese islands," and the minister warned of escalating the situation if Greece does not adhere to the terms of the peace treaty. The other dimension of the crisis relates to the rights resulting from that sovereignty, represented in maritime zones of influence, economic zones, and the right to prospect for energy resources such as oil and gas near these islands. Added to this is the issue of establishing American bases on them, alongside European—especially French—ambitions in this region.
France entered the fray and showed its support for Greece against Turkey quite blatantly. It announced its bias towards Greece against Turkey in the summer 2020 crisis, sending Rafale aircraft and warships in response to the deployment of Turkish military vessels and exploration activities in the Eastern Mediterranean. It signed a mutual cooperation agreement with Greece in September 2021, which stipulated "mutual assistance by all appropriate means if both countries jointly find that an armed attack is taking place against the territory of one of them." Subsequently, France, to strengthen that agreement, signed a joint military cooperation agreement between the two countries in January 2022, stating that the "strategic partnership unites the two countries on the military level," according to a statement by the French Armed Forces General Staff. This agreement also allows for "strengthening and structuring military defense relations in the long term, and embodying French-Greek bilateral military cooperation at the strategic and operational levels, and that bilateral military cooperation will be expanded" (Agence France-Presse, 2022/1/22). Two days before signing this agreement, Greece announced the receipt of 6 Rafale fighters from France out of 18 Rafale fighter jets that Greece had announced it would purchase from France last year, along with 3 frigates at a cost of 5.5 billion euros. AFP quoted experts as saying: "This defense agreement is unprecedented and unusual because it links two NATO member states and targets Turkey, another member of the alliance." France influenced the European Union with this position, making its stance supportive of Greece toward Turkey.
America did not remain silent about this French move; it acted to invalidate its effect and deal a blow first to Greece. It happened that Greece, Cyprus, and the Jewish entity announced on 2018/12/20 their readiness to establish a natural gas pipeline project to transport gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe without Turkey or the northern Turkish part of Cyprus having a contribution to it. This pipeline was supposed to secure about 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas for Europe. However, America announced the cessation of its support for the project. It informed the Jewish entity and Greece on 2022/1/10 that it "will not support the project politically and financially," which was considered a "victory for Turkey, which was isolated from the project" (Asharq Al-Awsat, 2022/1/10). The Greek military magazine, in a report published on 2022/1/10, referred to this by saying: ("Athens' project to increase geopolitical influence to become an energy hub and the historical alliance with (Israel) that led to the marginalization of Turkey and the achievement of other goals has completely collapsed... The same applies to the Maniatis Law, which defines the outer limits of the Greek continental shelf; both goals collapsed. Turkey smashed the Maniatis Law, which it calls the 'Blue Homeland', and strengthened its superiority over Greek positions with the Turkish-Libyan agreement, and now Washington's position has come to give it the opportunity.") It mentioned that "the (Greek) Prime Minister Mitsotakis does not want to conduct a dialogue with Turkey... just as he did not negotiate with America..." It added that "America worked through Germany to prevent the imposition of sanctions on Turkey due to the exploration crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean last year.") If we examine the matter closely, we see that America wanted to deal a blow to Greece for its cooperation with France and to invalidate the French move in the region. America wanted to link the project to Turkey, its close ally that revolves in its orbit, to confront France.
Greece realized that it had "angered" America with its agreement with France and its proximity to it. To fix this matter, it agreed to sign an agreement with America that the Greek Parliament had been postponing from 2021/10/14 until 2022/5/13 when it was signed... During the vote, Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis defended the agreement, saying: ["The defense cooperation agreement with the United States serves the national interests of the country. It is a vote of confidence for Greece, and it is important because, firstly, it includes a clear commitment that the American presence in Greece will be renewed every 5 years (instead of one year as it was before), and each party has the right to terminate it if it deems it necessary. Secondly, this bilateral cooperation with the United States is important because it expands not only in time but also in place. At the Souda naval base (on the island of Crete), the entire infrastructure is being modernized and the overall role of the base is being strengthened. Souda is the only pier where an American aircraft carrier can dock in the Eastern Mediterranean, in addition to the shooting range in Litochoro and two military camps in Volos and Alexandroupolis. Thirdly, the new agreement is important because it clearly expresses the common will for mutual defense of sovereignty and territorial integrity from any threat, even an armed attack"... Youm7 via news agencies, 2022/5/13].
Thus, America subjected Greece to its will, strengthened its influence there, and paralyzed its cooperation with France!
- After that, Greece's statements softened. The Greek Prime Minister said: ("It is important to keep communication channels open with Turkey, despite the sharp statements that led to an escalation of tension between the two neighbors"... Al-Khaleej Al-Jadeed, 2022/6/17). However, this situation has put the European Union in a dilemma! Therefore, to save face, it settled for its general, softened announcement toward Turkey while showing support for Greece on the basis that it is a member of the Union: (The final statement issued at its summit in Brussels on June 23 and 24, 2022, under the title "Eastern Mediterranean" stated: "The European Union expresses deep concern about Turkey's recent statements and actions. Turkey must show respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all EU member states.")
Following this, the Greek Prime Minister said: "We stand completely behind what was stated in the final statement of the European Union, which has held Turkey accountable regarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of EU member states and demanded it to reduce tension in accordance with international law. I hope Turkey listens to these calls this time. Because that is the only way to reduce the tension that was fully escalated by our neighbor in the past two months in the Eastern Mediterranean" (Voice of America, 2022/6/24).
Thus, America was able to ease the tension between Turkey and Greece. Turkey revolves in its orbit, and Greece has become held by the defense agreement with America. The influence of the European Union, especially France, on Greece has decreased. Accordingly, it is unlikely that the crisis of the islands in the Aegean Sea, including the Dodecanese islands, will have any solution in the foreseeable future; it will remain stagnant as it has for decades. In fact, the Turkish regime has implicitly recognized the granting of the twelve islands to Greece in the Paris Agreement of 1947; this regime has no plan to return them, nor the other islands whose ownership to Greece was not officially decided in agreements. It is not expected from the secular Turkish regime to take any serious action to recover these islands in the Aegean Sea controlled by Greece. Erdogan does nothing but engage in verbal warfare and then retreats, as happened in 2020 when he withdrew exploration ships from the Eastern Mediterranean and dropped the issue. Therefore, it is not expected that a war will break out between Turkey and Greece to recover these islands, for the strings of the issue are in the hands of America; Turkey revolves in its orbit, and in Greece, after that agreement, American influence is on the rise...
Finally, the Aegean islands, and indeed Greece, were part of the Islamic (Ottoman) State. After the conquest of Constantinople in 1453 CE, in confirmation of the Hadith of the Messenger of Allah ﷺ:
لَتُفْتَحَنَّ الْقُسْطَنْطِينِيَّةُ فَلَنِعْمَ الْأَمِيرُ أَمِيرُهَا وَلَنِعْمَ الْجَيْشُ ذَلِكَ الْجَيْشُ
"Verily, you shall conquer Constantinople. What a wonderful leader will her leader be, and what a wonderful army will that army be." (Narrated by Ahmad in his Musnad).
Three years later, in 1456 CE, the conquests headed toward Greece and those islands, and the Adhan (Allah is Great, Allah is Great) was raised there. They will surely return, by Allah’s permission, on a day when the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah—a day when the believers will be led by their Khalifah, who rules them by what Allah has revealed and fights with them in the path of Allah, returning the Abode of Islam, its root and its branch. For the Khalifah is the shield of the Ummah and its protection from its enemies; the Messenger of Allah ﷺ spoke the truth:
إِنَّمَا الْإِمَامُ جُنَّةٌ يُقَاتَلُ مِنْ وَرَائِهِ وَيُتَّقَى بِهِ
"Only the Imam is a shield, behind whom you fight and by whom you are protected." (Muslim)
5th of Dhu al-Hijjah 1443 AH 4/7/2022 CE