Question: What is the reality of what happened and is happening in Aden? How could fighting occur between the Zubaidi Council and Hadi’s government, given that Zubaidi was the Governor of Aden appointed by Hadi? Furthermore, after his dismissal, he remained in Aden without any action taken against him by Hadi’s government; instead, he was consolidating his forces under the very eyes of the government. What is expected now after the Transitional Council has seized control of Aden? With thanks and respect.
Answer: To clarify the answer, the following points must be reviewed:
First: Since the start of Operation Decisive Storm, Britain realized that Saudi Arabia’s intervention under this name, using aerial operations, was not intended to actually eliminate the Houthis. Had that been the goal, ground forces would have been deployed. Instead, it was intended to make the Houthis appear as defenders of Yemen against warplanes, making them look victimized and, at the same time, heroes. This would allow them to gain popular acceptance and public support, and subsequently, grant them a significant share in the governance of Yemen. Thus, after being a tribe in the Saada region, they would become rivals to the government across all of Yemen! Because Britain knew this, it attached the UAE to Saudi Arabia in the "Storm Alliance" to allow the UAE to confront the Houthis effectively, not just symbolically. Britain began pushing the UAE to achieve two objectives:
The First Goal: Finding an alternative to Hadi. Since Hadi is virtually a prisoner in Saudi Arabia, having no power or strength, Britain wanted to find an alternative to him in Aden who would be subject to its influence and not a prisoner of Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the UAE took successive steps to create this alternative. There was the Southern Movement (Al-Hirak al-Janubi), which officially announced itself in southern Yemen in 2007, headed by the opposition activist Hassan Baum, who is linked to America and supported by Iran. Britain feared his movements, and this fear peaked after the killing of Saleh, as British influence in the North diminished after the Houthis succeeded in extending their control there. Consequently, Britain began to seriously consider establishing a force in the South to serve as a pressure card enabling it to have a presence in the governance of Yemen, or at least in the South if the former failed. Thus, it began to seriously focus on establishing influence in the South, especially since it did not rely entirely on Hadi because Saudi Arabia dominated him. Britain addressed this matter via the UAE to penetrate the original Southern Movement or marginalize it by creating a new movement to lead the scene. Then, through the UAE and its followers, it focused on creating a southern movement parallel to Baum’s wing that would outbid him on the Southern issue. They found their goal in Aidarus al-Zubaidi, a well-known leader in the Southern Movement. Due to his proximity to the British faction, President Hadi appointed him as Governor of Aden on 7/12/2015, months after the launch of the Saudi Decisive Storm (March 2015). This was a strong indicator of the British agents' trust in him. An aura of success was built around al-Zubaidi in Aden; he was presented as a successful governor who restored electricity, expelled armed gangs, and fought the Houthis. Consequently, eyes turned toward him in the South as a prominent political figure competing with the historical leadership of Hassan Baum. Militarily, al-Zubaidi relies on Hani bin Breik, the founder of the "Southern Belt" forces, who is widely described as the UAE’s man in the South (he founded what is known as the "Security Belt" forces (Al-Hizam al-Amni), a militia openly backed by the UAE in southern Yemen... Sasa Post 2/11/2017). Thus, Zubaidi and Bin Breik became significant in the South. However, because they were part of Hadi’s government and their loyalty to the British was exposed, they lacked popularity in calling for the Southern Movement. The first step was to remove them from Hadi’s government in a way that portrayed them, especially Zubaidi, as being in strong conflict with Hadi’s camp, thereby causing Southerners to rally around him to form the new movement. And that is exactly what happened. On April 27, 2017, the Yemeni President issued a decree dismissing Aidarus al-Zubaidi, the Governor of Aden, and Minister of State Hani bin Breik, referring the latter for investigation. Thousands of Yemenis demonstrated in Aden to denounce Hadi’s decisions. Then, Zubaidi announced his presidency of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Aden on May 11, 2017, with Hani bin Breik as Vice President alongside 26 members. Thus, Britain, through the UAE, formed an alternative to Hadi’s government—the Transitional Council—to be used when its time came. It remained in Aden with significant force, protected by the UAE military.
The Second Goal: Liberating Hodeidah from Houthi control:
a- The UAE had entered Yemen by land and air because air combat alone does not settle a battle on the ground without land intervention. Therefore, it pushed its forces and allies toward Hodeidah and almost seized it from the Houthis, were it not for America standing in its way under the pretext of humanitarian aid. As for why Hodeidah was significant, Britain knows that what sustains the Houthis is Iranian support. After the closure of Sana'a airport and the control of southern ports, the port of Hodeidah became almost the only artery for Iran to deliver its support to the Houthis. Therefore, the UAE headed toward Hodeidah to control it. The Houthis faced a great danger represented by the imminent takeover of Hodeidah and its port by UAE-backed forces. Consequently, the battles for Hodeidah and the possibility of the UAE and its militias controlling the port became the biggest threat to Houthi rule in Yemen. Therefore, the Houthis mobilized all their forces to prevent it, and America mobilized its officials to cry over the humanitarian situation in Yemen, claiming the Hodeidah port is the lifeline to prevent famine. The UAE and its local allies were waiting for international opportunities to launch more attacks and complete the control of Hodeidah. Thus, stopping the UAE offensive on Hodeidah became a major concern for America because Hodeidah leaving Houthi hands would put them in a predicament!
b- Then came the brutal assassination of the Saudi journalist Khashoggi in Istanbul, which created a charged international atmosphere toward Saudi Arabia and Trump, who defended Saudi Arabia. America saw an opportunity to divert international attention to an issue that would somewhat cover the Khashoggi case and relieve the pressure on Saudi Arabia and the Trump administration—this was Yemen. Subsequently, the US Senate voted to end American military support for the war in Yemen (In a historic move, senators voted 56 to 41 to end military support for the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen... Reuters 14/12/2018). Accordingly, and to remove international embarrassment from Saudi Arabia and cover the journalist's case, America called for a ceasefire in Yemen within thirty days. (Defense Secretary James Mattis demanded that the parties to the Yemeni conflict cease fire within thirty days and enter into serious negotiations to end the war... he stressed that "the warring parties in Yemen must move forward toward peace efforts," adding, "We need to do this within the next thirty days, and I believe that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are ready to proceed"... Khaleej Online 31/10/2018).
c- This was followed by the Sweden Agreement to solve the Yemen issue. Britain realized that the agreement was managed by America for the benefit of the Houthis, as the negotiators were the Houthis and Hadi, who was overpowered by Saudi Arabia. Reports suggested that the government delegation was against signing the agreement because it did not stipulate the exit of Houthis from Hodeidah, but under pressure from Saudi Arabia, Hadi agreed! (Sources told Al-Jazeera that the government delegation submitted a paper to Hadi "residing in Riyadh" recommending not to sign the agreement as it did not explicitly state the exit of the Houthis from the city of Hodeidah and its port, but the Yemeni President directed to sign it after intense pressure from Saudi Arabia during the past hours... Al-Jazeera Net 13/12/2018). Naturally, America publicly welcomed the agreement (US Secretary of State Pompeo welcomed the agreement, considering that "peace is now possible in Yemen"... BBC 14/12/2018). America was interested in implementing the agreement without the Houthis withdrawing from Hodeidah, believing this was possible because the negotiating parties were under its thumb: the Houthis and Hadi, who is dominated by Saudi Arabia.
Second: Here, Britain found that the alternative to Hadi had come for its actual turn to act. If America succeeded in entrenching the Houthis in the North, the British alternative to Hadi was established in the South. This prevents America and Saudi Arabia from finding a solution with the Houthis through a British agent dominated by an America-linked Saudi Arabia. Instead, they would find before them a strong British-aligned movement in the South working for British interests without Saudi dominance. Thus, Britain would be part of any solution to the Yemen issue. Thus, the alternative—Zubaidi’s Council—was moved to start the Aden events:
The recent events in Aden were remarkably rapid! Tension began between the STC and the legitimate government forces in Aden, followed by clashes between the "Security Belt" and government forces... all starting on 7/8/2019. By Saturday evening, 10/8/2019—only four days later—(the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen announced on Saturday evening the control of the Maasheeq Presidential Palace in Aden after four days of clashes... France 24 on 10/8/2019). Similarly, other camps and departments in Aden fell!
It helped settle these events quickly "within four days" that Hadi's government, its apparatus, the President, and his Deputy are loyal to Britain, so they facilitated the Council’s task assigned by Britain! Thus, the Council was able to settle the matter quickly, and some indicators point to this:
a- (An official in the Security Belt forces said, "We received the Maasheeq Palace from the presidential forces without clashes" France 24 on 10/8/2019).
b- Yemeni Interior Minister Ahmed al-Maysari: The silence of the Yemeni presidency on what happened in Aden was suspicious and was not successful. (Al-Jazeera 11/8/2019).
c- (...And the commander of the Special Forces in the Yemeni government, Major General Fadl Ba'ash, announced on Saturday "10/8/2019" his defection and joining the forces of the Transitional Council. A video clip broadcast by platforms affiliated with the Transitional Council showed "Fadl Ba'ash" announcing his defection from the legitimate government forces and the joining of him and his soldiers to the forces of the Southern Transitional Council led by President Major General Aidarus al-Zubaidi"... Middle East Online on 10/8/2019).
d- This is in addition to the major role of the UAE, which was deceiving like its master. The UAE is the main supporter of Zubaidi! Yet, after every action it takes against Saudi plans, it immediately declares that it is a member of the Saudi-led coalition and that they work together for the stability of Yemen!
Third: It seems that Saudi Arabia did not expect this speed of resolution, especially during the Hajj period. The Transitional Council seized Aden on Saturday evening, 10/8/2019. At that point, Saudi Arabia began to rectify the situation:
a- (...The Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen, late yesterday, called on all military components and formations in Aden, including the Southern Transitional Council forces and the Security Belt forces that took control of the situation there, to immediately return to their positions and withdraw from the sites they seized during the past days, and not to harm public and private property. The Coalition also called for an immediate ceasefire in the temporary Yemeni capital, "Aden," starting from one o'clock after midnight last night, stressing that its forces "will use military force against anyone who violates this." Minutes after the deadline ended, the Southern Transitional Council announced its approval of the ceasefire and appreciated Riyadh’s call for dialogue... Asharq Al-Awsat on 11/8/2019). Nevertheless, (the Vice President of the Council, Hani Ali bin Breik, said on Twitter that the Council remains committed to the coalition, but emphasizes "not negotiating under the weight of threat." An official source in the Arab Coalition described the Transitional Council's statement regarding the ceasefire as good but insufficient, stressing the necessity of its withdrawal from the sites it seized through armed action. The source said the meeting between the Yemeni parties in Saudi Arabia will be "as soon as the Transitional Council withdraws and its forces return to their positions"... Independent Arabia on 11/8/2019).
b- To give credibility to the Coalition's announcement, it targeted one of the sites (targeting one of the areas that poses a threat by the separatists against the legitimate Yemeni government in the temporary capital, Aden. The Coalition said it was the first operation it carried out in this regard and will be followed by another in case of non-compliance with the statement to cease fire in Aden, which threatens to use force against violators... Al-Arabiya 11/8/2019).
c- An official source in the Arab Coalition reported that (the Southern Transitional Council forces began withdrawing from some areas they controlled in Aden after the Coalition forces targeted one of the Council's sites. This targeting comes after warnings issued by the Coalition leadership in a statement on Saturday evening "10/8/2019" through which it demanded an immediate ceasefire in Aden... RT 11/8/2019).
Fourth: As for what is expected, it is one of two things:
First, that Saudi Arabia, having invited both parties for dialogue, will try its best to dominate Zubaidi and his Council as it did with Hadi and his government. However, this is not easy to achieve because Britain is behind the formation of this Council precisely because Hadi fell under Saudi dominance; therefore, it will not allow it to fall into the same trap Hadi fell into again. It is more likely that Saudi Arabia will use the carrot and stick method with Zubaidi and his Council, enticing him by involving him in Hadi’s government with wide powers, while Hadi remains president with fewer powers as a face-saving measure, and threatening Zubaidi with military attacks if he refuses. It is not excluded that King Salman’s meeting with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi on 12/8/2019 was for this purpose—to return things to how they were, as Saudi Arabia realizes that the UAE is behind the establishment of the Transitional Council headed by Zubaidi.
Second, if the Transitional Council refuses and Saudi Arabia's efforts fail, then Britain will intervene directly and conduct talks with America, pledging to push the Transitional Council to negotiate with the Houthis to find a solution in which the Houthis have a significant share in governance. It may not be a coincidence that Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi political bureau, posted on his Facebook page on 11/8/2019—immediately after the Transitional Council seized Aden and coinciding with Saudi Arabia's call for dialogue: (We call on all political components, especially the main components represented by Ansar Allah, the Congress Party, the Islah Party, and the Transitional Council, to sit at the dialogue table to end the war and agree on forming a new transitional authority that represents everyone and then agree on a reconciliation project...). Thus, the circumstances for such a solution seem prepared: America wants to end the Yemeni issue, as appeared from its statements before the Sweden negotiations; Saudi Arabia wants to get out of the Yemeni quagmire; and Britain, now having someone who truly follows its orders without being subject to Saudi Arabia, also agrees to negotiations and will not obstruct their path as was the case before when Hadi was overpowered. If America and Britain agree on a joint solution, the followers—the Houthis, the Transitional Council, and Saudi Arabia—will implement it. However, the obstacle in the way of any joint solution among the capitalists is the exploitative and utilitarian outlook that runs in their blood. The priority for America and Britain before a joint solution is for each to impose the solution that achieves its own interests, which is what makes their discussions prolonged... while the Houthis, Saudis, Hadi, and the Council wait!
Fifth: What is painful is that the people of Yemen are capable of solving their own issue if they were sincere to Allah (swt) and truthful with the Messenger of Allah (saas). How can they leave our enemies to take charge of solving our issues?! The colonialist disbelievers discuss and study solutions by shedding the blood of Muslims, then they sit around that blood to choose the appropriate solution for their interests... while the rulers and their aides in the Muslim lands wander blindly in their misguidance, as if what is happening is in Waq al-Waq and not in the lands of the Muslims! Their handing over of our issues to the colonialist disbelievers to solve them and relying on them in that is a major crime, the perpetrator of which will bear disgrace in this world and painful punishment in the Hereafter.
سَيُصِيبُ الَّذِينَ أَجْرَمُوا صَغَارٌ عِنْدَ اللَّهِ وَعَذَابٌ شَدِيدٌ بِمَا كَانُوا يَمْكُرُونَ
"Humiliation from Allah and a severe punishment will smite those who committed crimes because of what they used to plot." (QS Al-An'am [6]: 124)
12th of Dhu al-Hijjah 1440 AH 13/8/2019 CE