Question:
Yesterday, 23/10/2009, the Secretary General of NATO, Rasmussen, stated that the NATO alliance welcomes the alternative missile defense plans according to Obama’s plan. Additionally, the Czech Republic confirmed its readiness to be part of this defense system, two days after Poland’s acceptance. How can this be?! Didn't Obama announce on 17/9/2009 his decision to abandon the installation of missile bases in Poland and radar platforms in the Czech Republic? Or was Obama’s announcement of abandonment not genuine, but rather a trick to temporarily soothe Russia’s security concerns? If so, has Obama’s America begun to take into account the growing power of Russia, thus becoming concerned with placating it? Consequently, has America’s military superiority been shaken, and has its control over the international situation weakened?
Answer:
Obama has abandoned the form of the missile defense system designed by Bush, but he has replaced it with another missile defense system that is stronger in some aspects than Bush’s system. However, he placed it in a mold that is less provocative than the one Bush established. To clarify the picture and answer the various parts of the question, the following points must be taken into consideration:
Since 1950, American politicians and experts have worked by various means to protect America from the threat of Soviet Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). However, these efforts were confined to the National Missile Defense (NMD) system, which later evolved into the missile shield system against potential threats of a Soviet nuclear attack. In 1961, work on the program stopped due to technical issues and was replaced by a group of defense projects. However, work on those projects did not continue for long because they failed to prove their ability to intercept and deter Soviet ballistic missiles, and they were very costly, in addition to suffering from major technological problems. Nevertheless, these programs and counter-programs regarding missile competition and protection succeeded in pushing both countries, America and the Soviet Union, to sign the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 1972. According to the agreement, both countries could build a missile defense system against the threat of ballistic missiles, but the treaty restricted both to geographic limits and the number of missiles allowed to be deployed by either for self-defense. For example, the Soviets deployed a missile system called A-35 (Galosh missile system). That system was for the protection of Moscow only. America deployed a defensive and preventive system around the United States to protect and defend it from any missile launched from any base belonging to the Soviet ICBM system.
The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), launched by Ronald Reagan on 23/3/1983, is considered a violation of the ABM treaty signed by America and the Soviet Union. It also drew the Soviet Union into a race with America, which led to economic pressure on the Soviet Union, contributing alongside other factors to its collapse. The SDI, or what is known as "Star Wars", was the most ambitious project the Americans had ever undertaken to build a missile shield system. The Star Wars program included the deployment of missiles, radars, and interceptors on land, in the air, at sea, and in space, including several space-based laser battle stations, nuclear-pumped x-ray laser satellites, and highly advanced command and control systems. The SDI program was also different from previous programs; it was not just a National Missile Defense (NMD) system to protect the United States alone, but was also intended to protect America’s allies in Europe from the threat of Soviet ballistic missiles. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Star Wars program receded, and work on it naturally stopped, but the NMD system remained active. During Bill Clinton’s term, this system was developed and then implemented in stages. It became a focus of the American administration during the era of Bush Jr. and became the central point of tension in American-Russian relations. On 13/12/2001, Bush announced his withdrawal from the ABM treaty. This event is considered the first in America's modern history where it withdrew from a major international arms treaty. This resulted in the establishment of the American Missile Defense Agency, whose task was to develop an ambitious plan to restore the NMD system.
On 16/12/2002, Bush issued "National Security Presidential Directive 23" (NSPD-23), which was a summary plan to initiate systems for defense against launched ballistic missiles. The following day, America officially requested Britain and Denmark to use facilities in both countries as part of the restoration of the NMD system. Bush gave the NMD system another name, the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD). In practice, the NMD system contained space, sea, and air-based projects. In February 2007, America officially began discussions with Poland and the Czech Republic regarding the start of building missile shield bases to facilitate the work of the GMD system. America justified the initiation of the GMD system by claiming there were "rogue states" like North Korea, and Iran in particular, working on developing long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads that threaten American interests in Europe and Israel! Meanwhile, the truth was to besiege Russia and keep it within the threat circle of the American missile shield. Russia realized the truth of this matter and considered the GMD system a lethal threat to its security. In November 2008, the Russian Ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, said that American missiles in Poland could strike Moscow within four minutes. To embarrass America and show the falsehood of its claim that it was for Iran, Russia offered to let America deploy its radars alongside Russian radars at its "Gabala" base in Azerbaijan, as it is closer to Iran than the Czech Republic and Poland—if the goal was indeed Iran! America did not agree because the goal was to install bases in Eastern Europe to threaten Russia... and it did not want to share a base with Russia where it would be under its gaze as long as the target was Russia itself!
Thus, Russia realized that the missile shield was directed against it and not against those rogue states! Therefore, Putin threatened in April 2007 with a new Cold War if America insisted on deploying the missile shield in Central Europe. Furthermore, in response to American threats, Putin threatened to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed with America in 1987, and then threatened to deploy missiles in the Kaliningrad province on the Baltic Sea, near Poland. One Russian general went further, threatening to bomb Poland if it insisted on being part of the American missile shield. On August 15, 2008, Russian General Anatoly Nogovitsyn said: "By hosting the missile shield, Poland makes itself a target, this is 100% certain; it has become a target for attack, and destroying this target occupies the highest priority."
Before Obama’s official announcement of abandoning the American missile shield plan in Poland and the Czech Republic, Obama had stated in early September 2009 that he would get rid of missile defense plans in Eastern Europe in favor of a missile defense system mounted on American warships. Therefore, Obama’s announcement on 17/9/2009 of abandoning the American missile shield was expected, and it came after he requested an evaluation of Bush’s GMD program.
As for whether Obama’s abandonment of Bush’s GMD project is genuine or a trick to temporarily reassure and soothe Russia’s security concerns, it can be understood by reviewing the following:
a. What was mentioned in Obama’s new speech about the project, where he said: "I have approved many recommendations from the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to strengthen American protection against any potential attack from ballistic missiles. This approach will generate faster capabilities, build a more efficient system, and provide a greater form of defense against missile threats than the 2007 European missile defense program." Obama added, "We have made significant progress in developing our missile defenses, especially in land and sea-based missile batteries and their supporting equipment. Our new approach will enable us to deploy modern and advanced technology faster than the previous system... The new system in Europe will be stronger, smarter, and faster in protecting American forces and their allies than the previous system. It will deploy more efficient and effective capabilities, and it confirms and builds confidence in our commitment to protect America from ballistic missile threats, and secures and enhances the protection of our allies in NATO."
b. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates refuted the many criticisms leveled against Obama’s decision by saying, "Those who say we have abandoned missile defense in Europe either haven't heard the news correctly or don't understand the reality of the situation." Gates also confirmed that the new system "provides better missile defense capabilities than the previous program that started about three years ago," adding, "We now have the opportunity to deploy sensors and interceptors in Northern and Southern Europe that will be able—in the near term—to intercept missiles coming from Iran and elsewhere."
c. From the speeches of Obama and his Secretary of Defense, it is clear that they are not talking about abandoning the GMD system, but on the contrary, they are talking about a more complex program. Gates revealed his plan for the new generation of the NMD system, saying, "The next step in approximately 2015 will involve field-based and flexible SM-3s ground bases." Likewise, a statement by General James Cartwright, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appeared on the "Euronet" page commenting on the proposed missile deployment: "Radars will likely be deployed in the Caucasus region because they will be closer to catching early warnings."
Accordingly, it is evident that abandoning the GMD system in Poland and the Czech Republic will be temporary to satisfy Russia. Gates was cunning in not mentioning the opening of Pentagon talks with both Poland and the Czech Republic regarding hosting the ground-based model of the SM-3 system and other equipment for the system. Likewise, the talks regarding leaks that Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan could enter the American missile deployment system have caused great concern for Russia. This means that the deployment of ground-based missile bases might extend to its "backyard," in addition to the even greater concern caused by Obama’s and his Secretary of Defense's new rhetoric. Therefore, despite Russia’s welcome of Obama’s decision on 17/9/2009, and President Dmitry Medvedev’s statement on 25/9/2009 that he would withdraw his decision regarding the deployment of Kaliningrad missiles, its other reactions indicated a lack of reassurance regarding Obama’s decision. Thus, the official spokesperson for the Russian Information Agency responded to the previous speeches of Obama and his Secretary of Defense by commenting: "As we expected, when Barack Obama spoke on 24/9/2009, he did not talk about abandoning or postponing anything, but rather adopted a new missile defense program based on technologically advanced and developed foundations, better able to confront current missile threats. Obama said that the program is more efficient than the previous program that included Poland and the Czech Republic."
As for whether America’s military superiority and its control over the international situation have been shaken, and whether it is taking into account Russia’s growing military power, it is clear that America no longer enjoys hegemony over the world as it did before its invasion of Iraq, as Iraq and Afghanistan have drained its strength and resources. This is in addition to the global economic crisis that has exacerbated the weakness of America's position in the world. However, despite all of this, America still remains the most superior in the military field and the most dominant in the international situation; it is still capable of imposing the world’s agenda and controlling the international situation. However, America faces many challenges and competitions from other major powers. As a result of its aforementioned crises, the challenges from its rivals have significantly increased.
As for Russia, it has managed to exploit America’s crises and benefit from high oil prices to convert part of its economic wealth into military resources and political power. A Russian role has been noted to some extent in Central America, the Caucasus, Europe, and Central Asia, to the point where the term "the rising Russian bear" has begun to circulate to describe the current Russian situation... But in any case, Russia is very far from regaining its past golden days; it still suffers from structural weakness in political and economic aspects, which prevents it from strongly contending in the international situation in the near term.