Question:
An Ethiopian official announced today that they have decided to withdraw their forces from Somalia by the end of this year. This statement comes after piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden and off the Somali coast have increased significantly in recent months. In recent days, they have increased even more, culminating in the hijacking of a Saudi ship carrying two million barrels of oil. At the same time, media outlets reported on 16/11/2008 a statement by Abdullah Yusuf, the interim president of Somalia, saying that the Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen controls most of the country and is on the verge of reaching the capital, Mogadishu. Ethiopia is disgruntled with its presence in Somalia, and its losses there are heavy. News agencies published a statement by the Ethiopian Foreign Minister following a meeting of the IGAD foreign ministers held in Addis Ababa on 18/11/2008, saying: "I would like to reaffirm very clearly that Ethiopian forces are not prepared to continue bearing heavy responsibilities indefinitely. It is important to convey the right message to the Somali leaders at this critical time..."
Does this indicate the collapse of America's agents who are fighting on its behalf by proxy in Somalia and their inability to hold out any longer? Furthermore, what is the role of the so-called Djibouti Agreement, signed on 26/10/2008, in this matter? Finally, can groups alone, no matter their strength, carry out such technically and militarily organized operations, or are major powers behind them?
Answer:
Yes, the increase in piracy has become striking recently. By examining this issue, the following is observed:
Most of the hijacked ships are either European or owned by other countries, but none of them are American. The Americans monitor everything that happens without intervening. News agencies reported on 17/11/2008 a statement by the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mullen, saying that any military action would be complicated due to the presence of hostages, noting that the pirates are all well-trained. The commander of the Fifth Fleet, Jane Campbell, told the BBC on 18/11/2008: "We cannot be everywhere... However, we encourage all precautionary measures." In another statement reported by Al-Arabiya on 19/11/2008, she said that they have no intention of intervening in the situation, as these acts are not military but criminal. The BBC website reported on 20/11/2008 a statement by White House spokesman Geoff Morrell, in which he said that even if all the world's navies were deployed there, it would not solve this problem.
The presence of foreign warships in the Gulf of Aden and off the Somali coast has become intensive. There are ships of the US Fifth Fleet, NATO ships (which decided last month on 9/10/2008 to send a naval force to this region), and warships belonging to the European Union, which decided on the tenth of this month to deploy a naval and air force called EU Navfor Atalanta. Its mission is to protect the sea lanes in the southern Red Sea from pirates, and its commander is a British Admiral, with headquarters in Northwood, UK. Following this decision, seven European warships were sent off the Somali coast. Previously, a multinational force of about 12 to 15 warships had been formed, known as the maritime counter-terrorism coalition (Task Force 150). Despite all of this, piracy operations are increasing!
We see the Europeans "feverish" about what is happening, especially the French. You see them establishing one force after another. They were also behind the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1816 on 2/6/2008, which authorizes the entry of warships into Somali territorial waters to combat pirates and armed robbery against ships for a period of six months, renewable; this was a French initiative. France had proposed on 16/9/2008, through its Foreign Minister Kouchner, as reported by the AFP, to launch a naval and air military operation next December to combat piracy in the southern Red Sea region—the Gulf of Aden and off the Somali coast. The AFP also reported a statement by the commander of French naval forces in the Indian Ocean, Gérard Valin, in which he confirmed that the pirates in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea have become a real paramilitary force, well-equipped and professional. Germany also demanded military action there. On 20/11/2008, the Security Council unanimously issued a resolution, which Europe was also behind (drafted by Britain), involving sanctions on anyone who contributes to spreading chaos and violence on the Somali mainland and its coasts, including pirates.
On 18/11/2008, Al-Jazeera reported that Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, of the Djibouti wing of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia, expressed surprise at the increase in piracy in the presence of the fleets of the major powers in the region, saying it is a "puzzle that defies understanding!". On the same date, in the "Meeting of the Day" program on Al-Jazeera, Omar Iman Abu Bakr, head of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (Asmara wing), said that piracy is an "American industry." He stated: "We know that American warships are present in large numbers on the Somali coast, and these people carry out this piracy while these giant American ships are present, within their sight and hearing. In fact, news confirms that American forces are training these pirates who take these ships loaded with goods to Somalia and elsewhere while the American warships watch!"
From all this, we conclude the following:
The First Matter: America has failed to achieve a "victory" in the land war in Somalia—that is, on Somali soil—whether with its forces directly, as it did in 1993 when it could not stay on Somali soil for more than eighteen months and then turned back in humiliation and weakness, or with the forces of its proxy agents, as Ethiopia has done, which has now begun packing up its soldiers' tents to depart! Similarly, it is unlikely to win it in the near future at least.
After this American failure, it sought to achieve a political victory through the games of political negotiations, by creating a joint government composed of an artificial alliance between the government of Abdullah Yusuf and wings of the Islamic Courts. Although it succeeded in creating an agreement between the government of Abdullah Yusuf and the Djibouti wing of the Islamic Courts (signed on 26/10/2008), it is not expected that this agreement will reach its goal due to the resistance of the Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen to this ill-famed agreement and their takeover of many areas in Somalia, to the point that they almost reached the capital, according to the statement of Abdullah Yusuf himself. It is known that this movement separated from the Islamic Courts (Asmara and Djibouti wings) after they signed the Asmara Agreement in September 2007, accusing them of forming an alliance with secularists and abandoning Jihad in the way of Allah...
Thus, America has failed to achieve a military victory on the Somali mainland or a complete political victory as it desired.
After this failure on land, it seems to have turned to controlling the region through the sea. It has turned the coasts of Somalia and Aden into a center for hijacking international ships—specifically European ones—to preoccupy Europe's security with these kidnappings. Consequently, this creates a "headache" for Europe at sea, which relieves America of the "conflict on land." Then, it penetrates through the sea to the coasts of the Horn of Africa, and subsequently into its interior through "Snatching Chaos" (al-fawda al-khattafah), modeled after its policy in the Middle East known as "Creative Chaos" (al-fawda al-khallaqah). Thus, behind this maritime chaos, it achieves its goals of controlling both sides of Bab-el-Mandeb in the Gulf of Aden from the side of Yemen and the side of Djibouti, facilitating its future re-entry into Somalia. In this way, it becomes the controller of the Red Sea, its outlets, and its sides, after having preoccupied Europe with the policy of kidnapping and distancing its ships and warships from that region. It is known that this is a sensitive and strategically and economically important region, as one-third of exported oil passes through it, as well as one-tenth of international maritime trade of various goods; this region is a passage for thousands of commercial ships...
The Second Matter: The American position is indifferent to the acts of piracy, while Europe is the one concerned and the one most affected by them. The Americans consider them ordinary criminal acts, not terrorism, and not deserving of a military operation against them, which they claim would be futile and ineffective. They even add that if all the countries of the world gathered, they would not be able to limit them!
This position has been reflected in America's agents in the region. Egypt, in the Cairo meeting on 20/11/2008 which included five Arab countries bordering the Red Sea, was able to influence the final statement, which referred to respecting the sovereignty of Somali lands and waters when facing piracy. This means the opposite of the French projects that call for a military operation in the region, bypassing the borders of states and their waters...
This is America's position toward piracy. As for the Europeans, they consider it paramilitary and a real "industry of crime," as Sarkozy described it, and that a large-scale military operation must be launched next month against it, in their view.
The Third Matter: America has not closed its eyes to Djibouti. It has tried and is trying to have a permanent foothold there. However, France considers Djibouti its main center in the region, as it has its largest foreign military base there with 2,700 French soldiers, from which it launches air and sea operations to protect its influence in the region up to Central Africa. France realizes America's ambition for Djibouti, and therefore allowed America to use an old base there called Camp Lemonnier, and for America to place a small force of no more than a thousand soldiers, hoping to limit America's ambition and conflict over Djibouti. However, America was thinking differently. It considered the eight hundred soldiers currently in that base as a starting point, not the end of the road. It is currently working to expand this base to accommodate two thousand American military personnel under the pretext of combating terrorism. This pretext was the gateway for France to allow the expansion. The French Defense Minister said, as reported in the Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper on 28/10/2008, that the goal of the United States is to establish a rear base to fight terrorism. She added that the American presence is not permanent but is linked to fighting terrorism, then emphasized that the French presence is permanent. This statement hints at a fear of France's presence disappearing and the extension of the American presence in Djibouti. While it was a hint in the Minister's statement, it was stated explicitly by a high-ranking French military official on the same day and in the same newspaper, whom the Minister met during her visit to the French base in Djibouti. This high-ranking military official said: "The goal of the United States' deployment in Djibouti is to ensure a permanent American presence in the Horn of Africa and the flashpoints in Yemen, Somalia, and even Sudan..."
Furthermore, America's plans also include establishing a permanent base in Aden, as Britain had previously, and from there it would set out to extend its influence throughout Yemen, just as Britain did before. Therefore, Yemen is fearful of recent developments. Al-Jazeera reported on 18/11/2008 a statement by Yemen's Foreign Minister Abu Bakr al-Qirbi, in which he expressed his fears of the density of Western fleets deployed in the Gulf of Aden under the pretext of combating piracy, considering this a threat to Arab national security and that the deployment of these fleets may lead to the internationalization of the Red Sea.
This American ambition for Djibouti and Aden as well is one of America's motives for "terrorizing" international (European) ships to preoccupy them securely there and then distance them from that region or reduce their presence.
Thus, the matter of piracy is linked to two points: the situation inside Somalia, and control over the Gulf of Aden and the Somali coast. It is noticeable that America is "watching" the piracy operations and that its eyes are looking toward the Horn of Africa starting from its waters, while Europe is interested in extinguishing the flame of piracy, even militarily, to preserve its interests.
All of this gives a strong face of truth to the accusation that America has a hand—and not a short one—behind the piracy operations taking place there in the region.
Finally, it is heartbreaking that the Red Sea and the Somali coast should be a playground for the disbelieving colonial countries, at a time when Islamic lands surround these places. However, the ruling regimes in the Muslim lands around the Red Sea and the Somali coasts are more like puppets tossed around by those countries and used as tools in their conflict for hegemony over the waters, skies, and lands of the Muslims.
These rulers are truly Ruwaybidhah (insignificant/worthless men), and the Messenger of Allah (saw) spoke the truth:
يَأْتِي عَلَى النَّاسِ سَنَوَاتٌ خَدَّاعَاتٌ... وَيَنْطِقُ فِي النَّاسِ الرُّوَيْبِضَةُ، قَالُوا: وَمَا الرُّوَيْبِضَةُ يَا رَسُولَ اللهِ؟ قَالَ: الرَّجُلُ التَّافِهُ يَتَكَلَّمُ فِي أَمْرِ الْعَامَّةِ
"There will come to the people years of deceit... and the Ruwaybidhah will speak among the people. They said: 'And what is the Ruwaybidhah, O Messenger of Allah?' He said: 'The insignificant/worthless man who speaks about public affairs.'" (Narrated by Ahmad)