Question:
The Nigerian Electoral Commission announced on 8/2/2015 the postponement of the presidential and legislative elections, which were scheduled to be held on February 14, delaying them until March 28 under the pretext of internal security concerns... Is this the case? Or is this postponement for international reasons? If so, which countries influenced this delay? And what is expected regarding these elections?
Furthermore, I have an observation: the party's publications are almost devoid of discussion regarding the issues of Nigeria, even though it is the largest Islamic country in terms of population in Africa, overlooks the ocean, and is an oil-producing country. Why is it not given attention? I apologize if my right is only to ask a question and not to make an observation... and may Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
First: I will start with the observation and say:
May Allah increase you in etiquette; you ask for an excuse for something that is your right, and this is a sign of good character...
As for the interest in Nigeria, it exists by the permission of Allah—rest assured. We are aware of what you mentioned and other matters as well, and we are proceeding in them well. Allah (swt) is the Grantor of success...
Regarding the publications, we take certain considerations and priorities into account... Nevertheless, we have published regarding Nigeria more than once. For example:
On 13/3/2009, we issued an Answer to a Question regarding: "Is there historical information about the entry of Islam into Nigeria and how it was ruled after that? Furthermore, what is the political situation in Nigeria?"
On 20/1/2012, we issued "Information for the Shabab - The Boko Haram group and the fierce campaign against Islam in Nigeria and the international relationship to that."
On 21/8/2012, we issued an Answer to a Question: "Some situations, events, conditions, and conflicts in Nigeria and Kenya have recently caught the attention of observers... Does this mean that the United States, the United Kingdom, or other powers have adopted a new policy to encourage ongoing civil wars throughout Africa—currently in Nigeria, and in Kenya after the 2007 general elections—or are these events internal?"
It was a detailed answer in which we mentioned Jonathan and his election to the presidency in 2011. The answer stated: "...Obasanjo is America's primary agent in the country, tasked with the responsibility of ensuring continued American hegemony in Nigeria and marginalizing British influence. It was Obasanjo who chose Jonathan to hold the position of Vice President for Yar'Adua in the 2007 presidential elections. According to the profile of Goodluck Jonathan reported by the BBC: 'Mr. Jonathan took over as governor and two years later was hand-picked by Olusegun Obasanjo to be the Nigerian vice-presidential candidate for the 2007 presidential elections' (Goodluck Jonathan Profile: Nigeria, BBC News Online, 18 April 2011). Later, Obasanjo organized Jonathan's ascent to the presidency. According to the Vanguard newspaper, Obasanjo was instrumental in Jonathan reaching the presidency. The newspaper stated: 'When Yar'Adua became ill and his recovery was hopeless about two years into his four-year term, Obasanjo first visited the ailing President at the Saudi hospital and returned to lead the campaign for the inauguration of Goodluck Jonathan, the Vice President, to be sworn in as Acting President for Yar'Adua because the office had not been handed over to him before the President traveled abroad' (Clifford: Obasanjo's Resignation: What Next for the PDP, Jonathan? Vanguard Online, 4 April 2012).
Thus, America succeeded in securing a broad term for Jonathan in his re-election to the presidency in 2011, where Jonathan used social media tools to reach the Nigerian masses and secured 77.7% of the votes. These results were advanced compared to the votes during Umaru Yar'Adua's term..." End quote.
So, we have indeed published about Nigeria... even if those publications were fewer than what has been issued regarding some other regions. However, as I mentioned to you earlier, we "take certain considerations and priorities into account..."
In any case, may Allah reward you for your concern and interest. May Allah grant you success and aid you.
Second: The answer to your question regarding the postponement of the elections:
To clarify the answer, I mention the following to you:
America recently announced plans to strengthen its influence in Nigeria. Among these was what the New York Times published on 7/6/2014 regarding the "U.S. decision to launch a 24-hour directly funded television channel in northern Nigeria aimed at countering the Boko Haram insurgency and other militant Islamic groups." The newspaper quoted an American official stating that "this project was the result of discussions with Nigeria dating back to late 2012 on ways to cooperate against Boko Haram, and that the channel's content would be produced by Nigerians in Nigeria." The paper added that "the State Department's Bureau of Counterterrorism will fund the channel, which is expected to cost about six million dollars."
Britain was the colonizer of Nigeria until 1960 and held absolute influence there. It still retains influence, although it is currently weaker than before. America has come to compete for this influence; they are the two powers that possess influence there and compete over it. Britain moved France with it, as France fears for its influence adjacent to Nigeria. Thus, "Chadian forces deployed on the Cameroon-Nigeria border entered the Nigerian city of Gamboru before noon on Tuesday (3/2/2015) after fierce battles with Islamists from the Boko Haram group" (AFP 3/2/2015). It mentioned that this city had been seized by the group a month earlier. Chadian forces had entered Cameroon in the middle of last month, January. Reuters reported on 3/2/2015 that "French aircraft are conducting reconnaissance missions to help countries bordering Nigeria in confronting Boko Haram militants..." Britain does not like open confrontation with America, according to recently followed British policy; it shows that it stands with America to involve it in international issues and ward off its harm. It fears open confrontation so as not to lose its interests with America and what remains of its influence in its old colonies. At the same time, Britain moves France, which it has long moved and used since ancient times to achieve its goals, especially since France loves open confrontation because it likes to show its greatness and always works to emphasize it. Therefore, Britain is able to exploit France to achieve its goals, especially since France is not proficient in political maneuvers... Despite all this, the actual conflict is between America and Britain.
As for inside Nigeria, the Nigerian government is tightening the grip on Muslims, who constitute the majority of the country's people. In February 2014, it announced a ban on the hijab in government schools. The state, led by Christians and supported by the West—headed by America—is blatantly biased toward Christians. It has imposed Western educational curricula on Muslims. The state's brutality toward Muslims has increased... Soldiers in the Nigerian army have refused to carry out these brutal acts committed by the regime against the Muslim population; they were subsequently sentenced to death. Sky News reported on 18/12/2014 that "a military court in Nigeria sentenced 54 members of the special forces to death on 18/12/2014 after they refused to participate in the fight against Boko Haram. Last September, it sentenced 12 Nigerian soldiers to death on charges of mutiny after they fired at a commanding officer in Maiduguri, northeast of the country..." All of this showed the extent of resentment toward Jonathan's rule and the hatred a large segment of civilians and military personnel have for his administration, which significantly affects the votes he would receive if the elections were held on time.
This is from one perspective. From another perspective, the current rival to Jonathan in the elections is former president Muhammadu Buhari. He belongs to the Hausa tribe, the largest tribe, making up a quarter of the population, the vast majority of whom are Muslims. He enjoys popularity in the Nigerian North. He competed against Jonathan in the 2011 elections, and it was announced that Buhari won 32%. He questioned the integrity of the elections and said they were manipulated "via computer programming at the Nigerian Electoral Commission to disadvantage him." With this statement, he indirectly accuses America, as it was America that provided the technical expertise to this commission, as well as funded and supervised it. Johnny Carson, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State at the time, praised this commission. Nigerian officials had held high-level talks on 9/12/2010 in Washington with American officials regarding these elections held in April 2011 and their technical, funding, and supervisory aspects.
Muhammadu Buhari is one of Britain's agents and was a former military ruler. He carried out a coup in 1983 against Shehu Shagari, who had taken over civilian rule in 1979... Muhammadu Buhari competed against retired General Olusegun Obasanjo in the 1999 and 2003 elections. In the 2007 elections, Obasanjo put forward a candidate from his party, Umaru Yar'Adua, who belonged to a Muslim tribe, to compete against Muhammadu Buhari so that the latter would lose those elections. Consequently, the regime led by Obasanjo was accused of fraud. As we mentioned above, Muhammadu Buhari has a degree of popularity, especially in northern Nigeria, which gives him and his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), a real chance to displace Jonathan and his party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), from power.
- Accordingly, America saw that the elections were not in its favor, so Kerry began arranging the postponement:
He met with British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond on 23/1/2015, as reported by AFP. This was about two weeks before the postponement, and there is no doubt that the elections were the most prominent topic on the table between them. America realizes that Britain has its men in Nigeria...
Then Kerry met with the leaders of the opposition APC and its candidate Muhammadu Buhari. Kerry said after the meeting: "President Barack Obama asked him to inform Nigerian political figures that America is ready to participate and support Nigeria, but the democratic process must be credible" (AFP 25/1/2015).
Then he met with Nigerian President Jonathan, who expressed his "commitment to holding free, fair, and credible elections" (AFP 25/1/2015).
These visits were related to the presidential elections. AFP mentioned when reporting Kerry's visit to Nigeria on 25/1/2015: "Kerry will also discuss the presidential and legislative elections scheduled to take place on February 14."
It seems that Kerry was trying during these announced and unannounced meetings to find a solution by agreement with all parties to postpone the elections for some time. However, he did not reach this solution. Consequently, he ordered Jonathan—without waiting for the parties' consent—to postpone the elections for about a month and a half. Thus, the Nigerian Electoral Commission announced on 8/2/2015 the postponement of the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for February 14 to March 28, citing security concerns. As is America's custom to show itself distant from the matter and that it was a decision by Jonathan's government, John Kerry said in a statement: "Washington is very disappointed by Nigeria's decision to postpone the elections" (Reuters 8/2/2015). Kerry says this while the matter is clear to everyone; his mentioned meetings were focused on the issue of the elections, as reported by AFP. The postponement must have been decided then by a decision from America, especially since it is inconceivable that Jonathan would oppose America when he is a follower of it and dependent on its support for him. Reuters reported on 8/2/2015 that the Nigerian Electoral Commission "bowed to pressure from the ruling People's Party in a move likely to provoke the opposition."
As for the government's argument that the postponement is for security matters, it is likewise a refuted argument. Contradiction and hesitation appeared in the positions of Jonathan's regime in choosing the pretext for the delay. Attahiru Jega, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), stated: "We cannot lightly dismiss the advice of the country's security chiefs. The risk of deploying young men and women and calling people to exercise their democratic rights in a situation where their security cannot be guaranteed is a greater responsibility. As a result, the Commission decided to set a new date for the elections, the general elections, the presidential and National Assembly elections. They will be held on March 28, 2015, and the governorship and state assembly elections will be held on April 11." Jega said: "The National Security Advisor sent a letter to the Electoral Commission last week explaining that security could not be guaranteed during the original proposed date for the elections..." He added: "No one forced us to make this decision," in the manner of "the suspect almost says, 'arrest me!'" He denies compulsion in the context of proving it! Not only that, but before this, Sambo Dasuki, the National Security Advisor, called last month "to postpone the elections due to concerns about not distributing enough of the ID cards necessary for voting in time" (Reuters 8/2/2015)... So a month ago, the National Security Advisor called for postponing the elections under the pretext of not distributing ID cards, while the Electoral Commission announces that the postponement came because of security concerns?! The contradiction between the two statements is clear!
Thus, the postponement is not for the reasons announced by Jonathan's government, but rather by an American decision because the situation of its current primary agent, Jonathan, is critical and there are fears of his failure. As we mentioned above, some analysts and observers indicate that his rival Muhammadu Buhari and his party, the All Progressives Congress, enjoy a real chance to displace Jonathan and his party, the People's Democratic Party, from power.
- As for what is expected, it could be one of the following possibilities:
A- Jonathan, during the postponement period with America's help, might try to achieve some victories and establish some semblance of security to reduce acts of violence. His success would be significant if he could, through international arrangements supported by America, find some solutions regarding the kidnapped schoolgirls...
B- Or America succeeds in finding a compromise with Britain where Jonathan shares power with Muhammadu Buhari, such as one being president and the other deputy—reverting to the formula that Jonathan invalidated, which is for one to be a Christian and the other a Muslim. Naturally, the driver for this would be the position of strength for both conflicting parties in Nigeria, namely America and Britain.
C- The postponement of the elections could be repeated, or they could be held on the new date by imposing America's candidate through computer programming manipulation, as happened in the previous elections. In both cases, violent events may escalate, and the people will suffer from their flames, especially the Muslims...
D- Or Allah may honor the Ummah by establishing the Righteous Khilafah in an influential Islamic country. At that point, terror will enter the hearts of the colonialist disbelievers, and they will not dare to plot against Islam and its people. Rather, the Muslims in Nigeria and elsewhere will be honored.
وَلَيَنْصُرَنَّ اللَّهُ مَنْ يَنْصُرُهُ إِنَّ اللَّهَ لَقَوِيٌّ عَزِيزٌ
"And Allah will surely support those who support Him. Indeed, Allah is Powerful and Exalted in Might." (Surah Al-Hajj [22]: 40)