Question:
American officials previously repeated that Musharraf was a "treasure" for the United States in preserving its interests and strengthening its influence in the region, and that he was a decisive factor for them in the occupation of Afghanistan... Yet yesterday, August 18, 2008, America allowed him to be ousted from power (to resign). How is that? Or is there a political struggle with Britain that resulted in Britain's success in ousting Musharraf? Furthermore, who is expected to replace Musharraf in the presidency?
Answer:
Yes, Musharraf was indeed a "treasure" for the United States, truly a treasure. He provided services to America in Afghanistan and the region; it is no exaggeration to say that America would not have been able to occupy Afghanistan if not for Musharraf's assistance. This is in addition to his confrontation with the Muslims resisting the occupation under the pretext of "fighting terrorism," which facilitated America's arrest of several Muslims resisting the occupation...
All of this is true, but in recent years, especially since a year or so ago, Musharraf was no longer able to implement America's plans. He became incapable of doing so because his position was shaken, whether among the people, in the army, or in parliament. This was due to his numerous crimes against Muslims, specifically his massacres in the tribal areas and the Swat Valley, his massacres in the Red Mosque (Lal Masjid), and his scandalous desperation to throw himself into America's embrace, providing every possible service to it while defying not only the thoughts and concepts of Muslims but even their feelings...
Statements by some American officials revealed Musharraf's inability to perform his duties as America wanted due to his shaken position in power, the army, and the Ummah. Among these statements is what the commander of American forces in Afghanistan, General David McKiernan, said on August 7, 2008, to the American television station (CNN): "Do I think there is some form of complicity on the part of the Pakistani intelligence service? Yes, I think so." McKiernan added: "We have seen an increasing number of foreign fighters in southern and eastern Afghanistan this year, and we expect the authorities in Pakistan to act against their safe havens."
The New York Times reported that Stephen Kappes, the number two man in the CIA, went to Islamabad to request clarifications from the Pakistani authorities and present them with evidence of Pakistani intelligence's complicity with the insurgent network led by Jalaluddin Haqqani.
The newspaper confirmed: "The Americans monitored communications that seemingly prove the involvement of some members of Pakistani intelligence in the attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul, which resulted in the deaths of sixty people."
Thus, it became clear to America that Musharraf's shaken position in his relationship with the army, the government, and the people made him unable to perform his duty as America wanted, despite the sacrifice and dedication Musharraf showed in serving America.
Accordingly, America saw that Musharraf had exhausted his role, and a replacement was necessary who would appear to the people as their savior from Musharraf's dictatorship, while then achieving America's interests, preserving its influence, and continuing to fight Muslims under the pretext of fighting terrorism... that is, repeating Musharraf's legacy in serving America when he held power firmly, before his star fell and he resigned!
It is worth noting that Musharraf's ousting (resignation) yesterday was not a sudden event; rather, Musharraf's star began to fade gradually through four stages, dimming little by little at each stage until it went out with the announcement of his resignation on August 18, 2008.
These stages are:
The First Stage: This was when America made a deal with Britain, allowing Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the People's Party (PPP), to return from her exile in Britain to Pakistan. The most prominent aspects of the deal were two things:
- That the People's Party would not object to Musharraf's re-election as President of the Republic.
- Power-sharing with Musharraf, where she would be a Prime Minister with effective powers.
This means America realized that Musharraf could not continue in power except with the support of Bhutto's secular party, due to Musharraf's massacres against Muslims and their hatred for him. Thus, America saw in this deal a way to save what could be saved of Musharraf's authority, even if it was diminished.
It is worth noting that the People's Party is a "collectionist" party and not a bloc-based (taktulli) party; that is, it does not have specific ideas that its members believe in and cluster around. Rather, it is a collection of people according to certain interests and related circumstances. Therefore, its infiltration is easy. This is what became apparent; for while the People's Party during the era of the father (Zulfikar Ali Bhutto) was backed by America, Britain was able, during Benazir Bhutto's years of exile there, to gain her loyalty and the loyalty of influential leaders in the People's Party. Britain began to influence it to its side, after it had been loyal to America during the era of the elder Bhutto.
Accordingly, the first stage was this deal that brought Benazir Bhutto back to Pakistan, while reducing Musharraf's authority.
The Second Stage: This was the day America allowed Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif is one of America's men, but it was angry with him when he did not prevent the Pakistani army from occupying the Kargil heights in India during the rule of the Janata Party led by Vajpayee, the former Prime Minister of India.
It is well known that America exerted great effort until it gained the loyalty of the Janata Party after years of the long rule of the Congress Party in India, which is a pro-British party. America was supporting Vajpayee economically, politically, and militarily to prolong his tenure, so the occupation of the Kargil heights acted as a wedge driven into the popularity of the Janata Party.
Therefore, America was behind Musharraf's coup against Nawaz Sharif and his expulsion, and America remained angry with him and did not allow him to return.
However, the rise of the People's Party's popularity to the sky—"especially after the assassination of Bhutto"—created a fear in America that the People's Party would sweep the voters' ballots, and subsequently not abide by the terms of the deal, seize power alone, and British influence would return...
Therefore, it allowed Nawaz to return to Pakistan so that his party would share the people's resentment against Musharraf with the People's Party. Thus, the votes would not all go to the People's Party, but the majority would be distributed between Bhutto's party and Nawaz Sharif's party.
This was the second stage, and it was clear from Nawaz Sharif's return that matters were being prepared for the post-Musharraf era.
The Third Stage: This was America's instruction to Musharraf to relinquish the leadership of the army to facilitate his election, which he used to exploit for strength during every popular or parliamentary crisis he faced.
The Fourth and Decisive Stage: This was the visit of the current Prime Minister of Pakistan, Raza Gilani, to America, his lengthy meeting with Bush, then his return to Pakistan and his initiation of the procedures to impeach Musharraf.
Those who followed the visit can see that Raza Gilani submitted to America, and that America guaranteed the People's Party's support for the candidate America proposes for the presidency. Naturally, Nawaz Sharif's party is guaranteed.
As a result of that visit, America gave the green light to the government coalition to proceed with Musharraf's impeachment after securing Raza Gilani's agreement—and consequently the People's Party—to support America's candidate for the presidency, so that the People's Party would not work to obstruct the arrival of whoever America wants for the presidency.
Raza Gilani, as a British agent, may have shown agreement to Bush not to obstruct the arrival of whoever America wants for the presidency—in the manner that the British do in their policy of not confronting America—but it is more likely that America tempted him with a significant position in the new authority, and that he has become close to America.
However, it is expected that Britain will not remain silent about losing an opportunity that arose for it to participate in the government in Pakistan since the aforementioned deal. Therefore, it will work through leaders in the People's Party loyal to it to obstruct the upcoming presidential elections unless it is guaranteed an effective participation in government similar to the previous deal.
Britain does not aspire to full influence in Pakistan, but it will not let an opportunity that arose slip away. Therefore, obstructing the election of the president whom America wants is a strong possibility unless the negotiations for a new deal return.
As for who the expected next president is, regardless of names, the effective role in nominating and electing the president will be for America. There are three possibilities:
The First Possibility: That it be Raza Gilani, if America is reassured that he has truly become loyal to it, and not just in form—in the new British way of appearing to agree with American policy while stabbing it in the back. If America is reassured that Raza Gilani has truly become loyal to it, he is the most likely candidate. However, this matter needs the pacification of Britain, which will not easily remain silent and may cause problems for Raza Gilani through the British-loyal leadership of the People's Party.
The Second Possibility: Someone from Nawaz Sharif's party, with priority given to one of its leaders, and not Nawaz Sharif himself. Although he is one of America's men, he is relatively disliked among the people. Furthermore, the effects of the Kargil crisis have not yet been erased from America's memory. America will not resort to nominating Nawaz Sharif unless it lacks another strong candidate from his party; then it might turn to him.
The Third Possibility: If the previous two possibilities become difficult, America may turn to the army again, especially since Kayani was appointed army chief upon Musharraf's nomination and with America's approval. America will not lack a way to politicize the military according to America's eccentric democracy!
Finally, we say: if only the agents would reason and take heed from what happens to their predecessors at the hands of the colonialist states, which spit out their agent like a date stone once his role is exhausted. This discarded agent loses his worldly life after having already lost his religion because of his agency for the disbelievers and his betrayal of his Ummah.
We say: if the agents understood this, they would have at least preserved their worldly life by seeking closeness to their people and not to the colonialists. But they do not reason.
18 Sha'ban 1429 AH 19/08/2008 CE