Question:
On the evening of Sunday, 13 August 2023, the coup leaders in Niger announced "their intention to prosecute the deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum, on charges of 'high treason' and 'undermining state security'..." In their statement, the coup leaders renewed their condemnation of the sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)... (Al Jazeera, 14 August 2023). General Abdourahamane Tchiani, commander of the Presidential Guard in Niger, had declared himself the transitional president on official national television on 28 July 2023. This came two days after his soldiers in the Presidential Guard, calling themselves the "National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland" (CNSP), announced the ousting of the country's president, Mohamed Bazoum, and besieged him at his residence. Was this coup an internal matter related to a struggle between powerful forces within the country, or are there external powers behind it as part of an international conflict? Furthermore, how is the charge of treason understood when he has not been arrested but remains in contact with officials abroad?
Answer:
To clarify the picture, we review the following matters:
First: The background of the coup and the men who carried it out:
Colonel-Major Amadou Abdramane, surrounded by nine military personnel in uniform, announced: ("We, the defense and security forces gathered in the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, have decided to put an end to the regime you know. This follows the continued deterioration of the security situation and poor economic and social management." He asked "all external partners not to interfere" and announced a "curfew from 10:00 PM to 5:00 AM across the entire territory until further notice"... AFP, 26 July 2023).
The following day, the army announced its support for the coup after a delay on the first day. The official French page France 24 reported on 27 July 2023 that the Nigerien army declared its loyalty to the defense and security forces that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum to "avoid a bloodbath within the armed forces." The page added: "A statement signed by the Army Chief of Staff, Abdou Siddikou Issa, spoke of 'supporting the military's declaration to put an end to the Bazoum regime'." It appears that after a day of hesitation, the army leadership realized they could not thwart the coup, so they supported it.
Al-Hurra news reported on 29 July 2023 that "Tchiani was loyal to former president Mahamadou Issoufou, who appointed him commander of the Presidential Guard during his two presidential terms from 2011–2021." The French magazine Jeune Afrique, specialized in African affairs, stated that "the Presidential Guard was a subject of great interest for President Mahamadou Issoufou, who granted it all powers and resources to prevent coups." It added that "General Tchiani is said to be a tough man feared by the army." From this, it is understood that the former president feared the army because it was controlled by those loyal to France, which established it since granting superficial independence to Niger. There was a failed coup attempt against Issoufou in 2015, and it is not unlikely that French followers in the army were the ones who attempted it. Therefore, he promoted Abdourahamane Tchiani and strengthened his power to be his guard against coups carried out by French agents for various reasons.
There have been four successful coups and several failed attempts in Niger since its superficial independence from France in 1960. The last successful coup before this recent one was in 2010 by military officers against President Mamadou Tandja, a French agent. They announced the formation of the "Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy" and appointed Salou Djibo, commander of a support unit in the capital, Niamey, as its head. We issued a Q&A regarding that coup on 20 February 2010, in which we said: "The American statements pointing to the extension incident are meant to place actual responsibility on the ousted President Tandja and justify the coup. Furthermore, the US State Department spokesperson did not call for the president's reinstatement, nor for dialogue between the coup plotters and the ousted president, but rather called for organizing new elections and forming a new government. All of this confirms that America was behind the coup... However, French influence in all its forms remained, with about 1,500 French personnel still residing there to secure France's nuclear interests, as it is the third-largest producer of uranium in the world. Thus, it is a target for American ambitions to control it and remove French influence, as in other African countries—most of which are Islamic lands rich in natural resources, sources of various raw materials, and energy sources. Therefore, it has been a site of conflict between the greedy Western colonizers, both Europeans and Americans."
Indeed, shortly after that coup, within several months, elections were held according to American demands in 2011. They were won by the leader of the Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism, Mahamadou Issoufou, who officially became president on 7 April 2011. Following this, he resigned from the party's presidency, and Mohamed Bazoum, one of the party's founders since 1990 and Issoufou’s close friend, took over. Issoufou appointed him Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and later Minister of State at the Presidency since 2015. When Issoufou was elected for a second term, he appointed Bazoum as Minister of State for the Interior, Public Security, Decentralization, and Customary and Religious Affairs. Both Issoufou and Mohamed Bazoum were opponents of President Mamadou Tandja, and when Tandja was ousted in a military coup on 18 February 2010, Issoufou and Bazoum expressed their support for the coup. It is understood from all this that Issoufou and Bazoum are loyal to America.
When Mahamadou Issoufou took the presidency through elections for two terms between 2011–2021, he showed his proximity to America, allowing it to establish two important military bases in Niger, one in 2014 and the other in 2018, where more than a thousand American soldiers and many drones are stationed. The Noon Post website published a translated article on 13 September 2018 regarding American bases in Niger, quoting former President Mahamadou Issoufou in an interview with The Guardian: "I do not like to use the term foreign forces because American forces are friendly forces... knowing that they came to the country at our request. Once their mission is over, they will leave Niger." Nevertheless, Issoufou maintained his country's relations and alliances with France and did not expel French forces. Instead, he participated in the G5 Sahel alliance founded and led by France under the pretext of fighting terrorism in 2014. It appears he could not easily uproot French influence from Niger, so he humored them until American influence, which he brought into the country under the guise of fighting terrorism, grew stronger.
When Mohamed Bazoum was elected on 21 February 2021 and officially took office on 1 April 2021, succeeding Mahamadou Issoufou and with his support, he pledged to follow Issoufou's policies. Two days before his inauguration, a coup attempt against him was thwarted, and the commander of the Presidential Guard, Abdourahamane Tchiani—loyal to Mahamadou Issoufou—played a key role in foiling it. Bazoum continued to approve the American presence and worked to strengthen relations with America. The Arabi21 page quoted the American Intercept website on 27 July 2023 in a report about the US presence in Niger, stating Mohamed Bazoum told US Secretary of State Blinken: "The United States remains the preferred choice, and we need to prove that we can deliver real results." Thus, Mohamed Bazoum's policy, like that of his predecessor and friend Mahamadou Issoufou, appears to be loyalty to America while not being hostile to France or its presence, as the political and military circles generally lean towards France, the country's former direct colonial ruler for 60 years and its indirect ruler for a nearly equal period thereafter.
Second: From the above, it is clear that Mahamadou Issoufou and Bazoum are loyal to America, and that the commander of the Presidential Guard, Abdourahamane, was a close friend of Issoufou who granted him significant powers, and that he played an important role in foiling the coup attempt against Bazoum two days before he took office. This means the three are on the same page. So why this coup? A careful examination of the events and their background reveals the following:
As we said, the head of the guard was trusted by Issoufou, close to him, and his defender against coups by French agents in the army. Media outlets, including Asharq Al-Awsat on 28 July 2023, reported news regarding coup leader Abdourahamane Tchiani, mentioning that he joined the army and held the rank of officer before taking on domestic duties to lead some military units. However, he emerged strongly after former President Mahamadou Issoufou came to power in 2011, who made him a man of trust. During Issoufou's rule, Tchiani benefited from rapid military promotions that led him to the rank of general without following the usual path in the military establishment. Issoufou appointed him head of the Presidential Guard in 2015, which are elite units tasked with protecting the president, especially after the coup attempt against Issoufou.
Two days before Mohamed Bazoum came to power and before he was officially inaugurated as president, he faced a failed coup attempt in 2021. This led him to make broad changes in the Presidential Guard battalion, but he retained General Tchiani at its head based on a recommendation from Issoufou, who had just handed over power but remained closely connected with Bazoum. Issoufou is considered the man with the final say within the ruling party, and he brought his son into the government as Minister of Energy and Mines.
Sources say that those close to Bazoum were warning him about Tchiani and advising him to remove him from the leadership of the Presidential Guard battalion to consolidate his rule, but he kept him based on the recommendation of his friend, the former president. However, recently, political activists on social media discussed Bazoum's intention to dismiss him and make changes at the head of the military establishment and the Presidential Guard. It is said he intended to dismiss the son of the former president from the Ministry of Energy and Mines. All this caused a cooling of relations between him and the former president; in fact, it led to the annoyance of Issoufou and his close friend Tchiani. Consequently, Bazoum’s popular base weakened, and several leaders of the ruling party became restless about his rise because he does not belong to the Hausa tribe, which represents half the country, but is of Arab descent. This is evidenced by the weak voting for him in the capital, as well as the coup attempt against him two days before his inauguration. He was not welcomed by other ethnicities or by some segments of the army.
Thus, General Abdourahamane Tchiani was the commander of the Presidential Guard during the era of former President Mahamadou Issoufou, but the current president was considering replacing him. Al Jazeera published on its website on 28 July 2023, quoting a Mediapart report: ("General Abdourahamane Tchiani was the commander of the Presidential Guard during the era of former President Mahamadou Issoufou, but the current president was considering replacing him, given his well-known deep loyalty to his former president among Nigerien military experts. Political analyst Moussa Aksar told the site that everything indicated Mahamadou Issoufou wanted to return to power... He wanted to control the oil and has many shares in several companies, according to an investigative report pointing to embezzlement in the Nigerien Ministry of Defense during the former president's era.") This confirms that the coup has internal motives, which seem to be the primary driver. Therefore, when the coup occurred, there were strong responses condemning it from America, France, the European Union, Britain, Russia, and regional powers—as if everyone was surprised!
Thus, America and the UN condemned the coup... France and the EU condemned the coup... the West African economic group "ECOWAS" condemned it... even Britain, which has no influence in Niger, condemned the coup! Furthermore, Russia, which has no presence there nor does Wagner, also condemned it, not realizing that the raising of its flag in the demonstrations was for deception! White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said: ("The United States sees no credible indications of involvement by Russia or the Russian private military group Wagner in the coup in the state of Niger"... Reuters, 27 July 2023).
Third: Conclusion:
The most likely scenario is that this coup has internal motives; it is a struggle or skirmish between American agents: Issoufou and Abdourahamane on one side, and Bazoum on the other. When the first two learned that Bazoum intended to remove Issoufou's son and the head of the Guard, they arranged this coup movement. However, they left room for negotiation because they are all American agents. Thus, they delayed arresting Bazoum and putting him in prison; then, days after the coup, they accused him of treason, while he remains at his residence—sometimes they restrict him and other times they allow a doctor, medicine, and food to reach him. At the same time, America and its ambassador in Niamey are moving to find a way out of this matter. But this coup remains among American agents.
The party most affected by this coup is France, since the coup plotters are loyal to America. To give legitimacy to their coup, they exploited France's confused and tense positions, the people's hatred for the old colonizer, its exploitation of their country, and its theft of their country's wealth without leaving them even a little. Consequently, thousands of people demonstrated against France in front of the French embassy on 30 July 2023, raising slogans condemning France.
America will work to manage the crisis there and employ it against French influence to consolidate its own, whether that is:
- By reinstating Bazoum if possible—though this is not easy, and his reinstatement also serves its interest because he is one of its agents, even if he humors France, since public opinion is against the coup and calls for his return because he was legally elected.
- Or by pressure on the coup leaders to return to ending the transitional period and holding new elections. Perhaps the former president Issoufou will nominate himself to return again, as the coup leaders are his men and from his tribe, to maintain his influence and his family's influence and cover up their thefts and embezzlements—especially since he is an American agent and has broad influence in his party and his tribe, which constitutes half the country.
- Thus, such an Islamic country, which is considered one of the richest in resources yet one of the poorest countries, suffers because of agents loyal to colonialism who provide services to one colonizer or another in exchange for positions and access to public funds. They do not think of the interest of their country or how to liberate and advance it, as they lack any vision even though they are sons of Muslims. The people follow these oppressors without awareness or perception due to intellectual decline and the dominance of pre-Islamic tribalism ('asabiyyah). This does not bring peace, security, or safety; rather, the rule of Islam—the Rightly Guided Khilafah—is the glory of Islam and Muslims, and the path to their strength, protection, and revival, especially since Niger is a Muslim country and its people are Muslims. This is the truth:
فَمَاذَا بَعْدَ الْحَقِّ إِلَّا الضَّلَالُ فَأَنَّى تُصْرَفُونَ
"And what can be beyond truth except error? So how are you averted?" (Yunus [10]: 32)
28th of Muharram 1445 AH 15 August 2023 CE