Question:
Even though not even a day and a half have passed, I hope for a clarification, at least of the general outlines, regarding what happened in Turkey in terms of the coup attempt: Who is behind it? Is it truly the Gulen group? Or officers loyal to the British in the army? And what is expected to happen next? May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
After monitoring and contemplating what occurred in Turkey during the two days of 15-16/07/2016 CE, the most likely view is that those who carried out the coup attempt were adventurous officers loyal to the British who were in the line of danger, based on the following facts:
- As for them being in the line of danger, this is because the Turkish Supreme Military Council usually meets at the end of this month, July, or early next month, August, once every year. The powers of this council are many and significant within the army; it is held under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister at the General Staff headquarters in Ankara, attended by the Minister of Defense, the Chief of Staff, the commanders of the Land, Air, Sea, and Gendarmerie forces, and the Second Deputy Chief of the General Staff. Furthermore, the members of the Council are senior military commanders. In this periodic meeting, the Council discusses: promotions of high-ranking military officers, extending the service period of some commanders, matters related to retirement, and the status of military personnel dismissed for violating discipline or ethical principles, in addition to several topics related to the Turkish Armed Forces. The meeting lasts for several days and its decisions are announced after being presented to the President of the Republic. Usually, with the conclusion of the Council meeting, the duties of several army commanders and other high ranks end. For example, in the previous meeting on 02/08/2015, among those whose service ended was the commander of the Air Force at the time, Akin Ozturk, who news reports indicate is at the head of the current coup attempt, along with other commanders.
It seems that the officers who carried out the attempt knew (or it was leaked to them) that measures would be taken against them in the Supreme Military Council meeting that would jeopardize their stay in the army in their current positions. Thus, they carried out this attempt as a preemptive act before the Council convened.
- As for them being adventurous officers loyal to the British, it is well known that the men of the British were the nucleus of the army. America has tried to penetrate it since the presidency of Ozal but did not succeed; thus, it turned its focus to the police and internal security forces. Then, it focused on penetrating the army during Erdogan's era and succeeded to a certain extent. However, the British forces still exist; although Erdogan has clipped their wings, he has not eliminated them, and among them are the officers who carried out the attempt.
As for them being "adventurous," it is because contemplating the attempt does not suggest that the British were the ones who drew up the plan. Rather, it is more likely that the officers drew up the plan and the British left it to them. This is because, upon closer inspection of the plan, it appears to be almost devoid of British malice and cunning. For instance, the coup plotters focused in their statement on secularism, which was foolish of them, as Islamic sentiments are currently widespread among many Turks. Mentioning secularism was a provocation to them, reminding them of the rule of Mustafa Kemal and his followers—how they were in a state of provocation toward Islam and Muslims, and harbored hatred and plots against Islam and its people. Therefore, the coup plotters' mention of secularism was an act of stupidity that made the people take to the streets out of hatred for the followers of Mustafa Kemal, more so than out of love for Erdogan. Another important matter is that the coup plotters did not plan precisely in the first minutes to arrest the politicians and rulers—meaning the President and the government—before announcing the coup. Instead, the coup was announced while they were still in their positions! Their actions were closer to a riot and an emotional outburst of anger, lacking a popular base or even an organized coup leadership!
All of this suggests that this coup was carried out by adventurous officers loyal to the British as a preemptive move against the decisions of the Supreme Military Council, which they expected would put them in danger. It is not far-fetched that the matter was more than just expectations, as obtaining such information is not difficult.
- As for directing the accusation at Gulen, it is most likely incorrect. The Gulen group is closer to civil, social, and judicial work and does not have the military capability to carry out a coup without colonial support, firstly. Secondly, it follows America's orders and does not move without its permission. America sees Erdogan as the man most capable of serving its interests, especially at the present time; Turkey is America’s last arrow regarding the Syrian solution, and Erdogan has provided it a service that no one else can in these circumstances by preparing to normalize relations with the Syrian regime, as the Turkish Prime Minister announced: "Turkey will restore its relations with Syria to normal."
For America, Gulen is a reserve line for when necessary. For example, Gulen supported the Justice Party in three elections from 2002 until 2013, when the dispute between them began by raising issues of corruption among some of Erdogan’s aides, as well as when the Dershane network of the Gulen group was closed. He is a backup if needed. Colonial countries are not harmed by the presence of more than one agent in one place, nor are they harmed if they dispute, compete, or even fight; they support whoever prevails. This is similar to Sadat's dispute with the Ali Sabri group; both sides were followers of America, yet Sadat was able to dismiss and arrest the Ali Sabri group.
Thus, the Gulen group, as we said, most likely did not arrange the attempt. However, this does not prevent individuals from the Gulen group from participating in their individual capacities, especially judges, as a reaction to the severe harassment they face from Erdogan.
- Erdogan undoubtedly realizes that the British have power in the army, even if it has diminished, and that the British group in the army is behind the coup attempt. However, he directs the accusation toward Gulen because talking about the men of the British in the army elevates their status, while eliminating them without mentioning them belittles their importance. As for Gulen, he is not of great significance like them. Erdogan wants to eliminate the men of the British without noise—that is, through secrecy—so they do not stand out and no bloc forms around them. Conversely, he wants to weaken his rival with noise because the Gulen group does not possess the same strength as the British men.
This is the most likely opinion regarding what happened. In any case, what occurred was not a well-executed coup attempt, nor was it studied with balance; rather, it was closer to a nervous adventure without precision or balance. The important point to observe is not what happened, but what is expected after it.
- As for what is expected next, the commotion that occurred around the coup attempt will affect both sides:
As for America and Erdogan, they will exert every effort to exploit what happened to take serious actions to end the British power in the army, or at least minimize their influence to the lowest level. They have magnified the size of the attempt to justify pursuing the British men with intensity and severity. Naturally, Erdogan will exploit this to weaken his rival Gulen as much as he can, within the limits America allows him. The thousands of arrests that have appeared indicate this.
As for Britain, what happened is counted against it—even if it, with its malice and cunning, did not set the plan, its styles, and its means, but left that to its men. Therefore, it is not ruled out that it will monitor the situation closely to carry out a reaction that restores some prestige to its men. This is what America and Erdogan expect; therefore, Obama held a National Security Council meeting to discuss what happened in Turkey as if it occurred at the heart of American national security, in anticipation of what international reactions might be. Likewise, Erdogan is advising the people to remain in the squares, airports, and mosques to block the path for any reaction from the British men and their loyalists.
- In conclusion, what happened is a painful matter because the blood that was shed is our blood, not the blood of the British or Americans. The destruction that occurred in buildings, airports, and squares is in our countries, not in America or Britain. Thus, the hours of that attempt were darknesses, one on top of another, in our lands and among us. This is a sad and painful matter.
However, there is a light, albeit small, that emerged in this darkness: the people went out into the streets chanting "Ya Allah, Ya Allah, Allahu Akbar, Allahu Akbar." This is because the coup plotters' announcement of their explicit secularism, which provoked the feelings of Muslims in Turkey, made them take to the streets to face tanks while chanting in support of their deen. They were confronting the military coup attempt, not so much out of love for Erdogan and his regime as out of resentment for secularism and its henchmen. All of this while they were moved by their emotions against secularism, even though it exists in both the regime and the coup, and secularism is evil wherever it resides. However, they saw that the secularism of the coup was provocative to their Islamic sentiments; the coup followed the footsteps of Mustafa Kemal and his followers and associates, and the people have experienced the hatred and plots of those people against Islam. As for the secularism of the regime, it is surrounded by something of Islam that comforts their feelings.
So, how would it be if Muslims had a state of truth and justice, a Rightly Guided Khilafah on the method of Prophethood, that rules them with justice and excellence, establishes the laws of Allah among them, and performs Jihad in the way of Allah with them, so they gain honor in this world and triumph in the Hereafter? How? They would protect it with their wealth and their lives, with their feelings and their thoughts, with their limbs and their hearts, and with all their affairs. Indeed, the Muslims are a nation of goodness, the best nation produced for mankind:
كُنتُمْ خَيْرَ أُمَّةٍ أُخْرِجَتْ لِلنَّاسِ تَأْمُرُونَ بِالْمَعْرُوفِ وَتَنْهَوْنَ عَنِ الْمُنكَرِ وَتُؤْمِنُونَ بِاللّهِ
"You are the best nation produced [as an example] for mankind. You enjoin what is right and forbid what is wrong and believe in Allah." (QS Ali ‘Imran [3]: 110)
And it will soon be embraced, by Allah's permission, by a rule according to what Allah has revealed—a Rightly Guided Khilafah that shades the Muslims with the banner of the Messenger of Allah (saw). And that is not difficult for Allah.
12th of Shawwal 1437 AH 17/07/2016 CE