Question:
The truce, for which America and Russia held lengthy meetings to design—some lasting up to ten hours between Kerry and Lavrov—has collapsed! America and Russia hailed it, claiming it differed from previous truces and that America would guarantee its implementation by the opposition, while Russia would guarantee its implementation by the regime. Suddenly, it collapsed, and America and Russia began trading accusations over who was behind its failure. Does this mean the infamous journey of truces has ended? If not, what is currently happening in the Syrian crisis? May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
The infamous journey of truces has not ended for America; rather, ongoing events have forced it to reconsider and modify its approach, taking what could be called a "truce-taker’s break." This break is intended for more intensified bombing operations to pressure the factions and the people into submitting to a new meeting between the regime and the opposition, according to a modified truce agreement that America is preparing during this interval. This is because Obama wants to end his term with some form of solution to the Syrian issue, or at least by bringing the regime and the opposition together in a meeting that would grant his term a degree of success, however small. This is similar to what the previous Democratic president, Clinton, attempted regarding the Palestinian cause. Although Clinton did not achieve what he wanted, Obama did not take heed and thought he could achieve what his predecessors could not, failing to realize that his failure exceeds that of his predecessor. To make matters clear, the following points must be reviewed:
1- America became seriously interested in imposing the truce when Russia and the regime managed to completely besiege Aleppo after seizing key parts of the Castello Road through intensive bombing campaigns by Russia and the regime. According to an Al Jazeera correspondent on 07/07/2016: "...the number of raids carried out by Russian and regime aircraft on Aleppo exceeded one hundred." The regime managed to control the road after the opposition's withdrawal (an Al Jazeera correspondent reported, citing military sources, that armed Syrian opposition fighters withdrew from positions they had seized around the Castello Road north of Aleppo for military reasons...) (Al Jazeera, 10/07/2016). Intensive raids continued, leading regime forces—supported by Russia, Iran, militias, and followers—to tighten the siege on Aleppo on 26/07/2016 ("Syrian regime forces tightened the siege on the eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo after seizing the Castello complex north of the city on Tuesday...") (Al Jazeera, Wednesday 27/07/2016). In this atmosphere, during a meeting between the US Secretary of State and the Russian Foreign Minister in Vientiane, the capital of Laos, on 26/07/2016, Kerry promised journalists that he would be in a position to tell them about positive steps to change the state of the war in Syria by the beginning of August 2016. This was after he was reassured by the regime's progress on the Castello Road with Russian and Iranian support, and the subsequent siege of Aleppo, as Kerry wanted to finalize the truce once this siege was achieved.
2- However, this did not happen due to the serious military operations carried out by the revolutionaries south of Aleppo, through which they managed to break the siege at its harshest point—south of Aleppo and the military colleges area. This occurred after the revolutionaries seized the Ramouseh neighborhood south of Aleppo and opened the road to it, thereby breaking the siege. The operations to break the siege of Aleppo served as a severe blow to American plans, which aimed to strike the Syrian revolution at its strongest and most heated focal point in Aleppo. America and Russia were enraged; Russia, through its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, described those operations by the revolutionaries as "insolent acts." This indicates that Russia and America believed they had subdued the revolution in Syria and pushed it toward atrophy.
3- To ensure the success of American plans, which had become focused on Aleppo, the siege had to be reimposed. Here, America worked on two axes to restore the siege on Aleppo:
First: Sending the Turkish army into northern Syria, starting with the Jarabulus area in what Turkey announced as the "Euphrates Shield" operations, and summoning "pro-Turkey" revolutionaries from south of Aleppo to fight the ISIS organization. This meant weakening the real fighting fronts in Aleppo, creating new fronts for internal infighting, and pushing as many revolutionaries as possible away from the battlefront in Aleppo.
Second: Further mobilization by Iran of thousands of its followers, sending them to southern Aleppo, and announcements by its party in Lebanon (Hezbollah) to send elite forces to southern Aleppo, as well as the Iraqi Al-Nujaba movement. At the same time, Russia significantly intensified its raids on the Ramouseh area.
Through these two axes, America enabled the regime and its allies to reimpose the siege on Aleppo. The eastern neighborhoods were placed on the table of American plots under the titles of "striking terrorists" and "humanitarian aid to civilians in Aleppo." At that point, the time became ripe for America to announce its agreement with Russia and impose a "cessation of hostilities." This took place during a meeting of the foreign ministers of both parties, America and Russia, in Geneva, which lasted for more than ten hours. During this time, US Secretary of State Kerry was in contact with security administrations, specifically the Pentagon in Washington, to ensure the fulfillment of the Russian request for joint and public US-Russian operations against groups that do not adhere to the ceasefire.
4- America and Russia announced 12/09/2016 as the date for the "cessation of hostilities" in Syria after being reassured that the regime's army and the allies of Iran and Russia had reimposed the siege on Aleppo. Furthermore, this date coincided with the evening of the first day of Eid al-Adha, to exploit the idea of "Eid" to improve the chances of the ceasefire being accepted in Syria.
5- America was serious about producing and implementing this agreement (US Secretary of State Kerry considered this Russian-American agreement as potentially the last chance to preserve a secular and united Syria...) (Al Jazeera Channel, live broadcast of Kerry's speech, 12/09/2016). This is because it achieved its goal of imposing a cessation of hostilities as a prelude to placing the Syrian issue on the guillotine of the Geneva negotiations. On the other hand, this plan, coinciding with the US elections, achieved political gains for the Democratic Party—gains that prompted America's haste to achieve an accomplishment for the Obama administration at the end of its era. At the same time, Russia hailed it due to the approaching launch of a wave of joint and public military operations with America—a long-standing Russian demand that it sees as a basis for continuing its service to American goals in Syria, anticipating the unknown policies of the next US administration that will succeed the Obama administration.
6- However, matters proceeded contrary to what America wanted, and two issues emerged that America had not accounted for:
First: Despite all the crimes America committed in Syria, whether directly through its alliance or via its partners Russia, Iran, and their militias in Iraq and Lebanon, and despite the fact that the truce agreement was concluded during a suffocating siege, especially in Aleppo—which led America, its allies, and its henchmen to believe that the people of Syria would agree to the truce—the opposite happened. Protests broke out despite the siege and the prevention of food aid, and even the bombing of it. Protests emerged strongly denouncing the truce agreement, which encouraged several factions to declare that they were not concerned with this agreement, even if they waited to see! Other factions opposed America's direction according to the agreement toward conducting joint strikes with Russia against groups it labels "terrorist," while other factions opposed the agreement entirely. Not only that, but the pressure of the people prevented even the factions loyal to America’s agents from showing their support, forcing them to hide it behind a veil. This made America realize that its truce agreement, in light of this rejection, was not as effective as it desired. But what truly made it lose its mind during its attempt to implement that truce was the blatant event of some opposition groups refusing to receive members of the US Special Forces in northern Syria after Erdogan hailed the start of the third phase of "Euphrates Shield" with the participation of US forces. US forces were introduced into northern Syria, but they were surprised by strong rejection from the opposition—not just those it calls extremist, but also those it calls moderate. They refused to fight alongside US Special Forces, and the rejection was accompanied by chants calling those forces "Crusaders," as reported by media outlets on 16/09/2016: (Video footage circulated by activists and journalists on Twitter appears to show soldiers from the US Special Forces leaving the town of Al-Rai in Aleppo after being subjected to insults from fighters believed to be from the "Free Syrian Army." This video comes at a time when The Wall Street Journal attributed to US officials that President Barack Obama approved sending about forty special operations forces to Syria to work with Turkish forces in northern Syria... The footage in the town of Al-Rai shows fighters shouting anti-American slogans as a convoy of trucks carrying US forces passed... A man is heard in the video saying: "The Americans have no place among us... they want to launch a crusade to occupy Syria"...) (Al-Bawaba website, 16/09/2016). The Daily Telegraph reported similarly on 16/09/2016.
This first matter made America see that it needed a truce-taker’s break! This was to conduct more bombing in retaliation against the people of Syria who stood, and still stand, in the face of America’s crimes and plots, thinking that increasing the bombing would make them submit—and this thought will be its downfall, Allah willing.
Second: The truce agreement was not merely military or relief-oriented; it was also a political solution. Obama looked forward to ending his term with a solution in Syria that preserves American influence, thereby being remembered for it and helping the Democratic candidate in the elections. It was mentioned in the news that the agreement consisted of about five documents: two regarding the cessation of hostilities and food aid, and these were disclosed. America refused to disclose the other three documents because they apparently relate to the political solution and likely reveal America's deception of the "moderate" opposition by claiming to be with them. It is not far-fetched that they contain provisions for the tyrant Bashar to remain as head of the transitional government until the elections thereafter! Consequently, America does not want to reveal this until it completes the military and relief "taming." It had agreed with Russia on this matter, and things initially proceeded quietly. It seems America overlooked that Europe, which America had marginalized from the ongoing events in Syria, would spare no effort to "disturb" it at any available opportunity, even if it is known that Europe has no effective role in the Syrian crisis; however, it can embarrass America. And that is what happened! Europe tried to exploit this point; France loudly demanded that America reveal the terms of the agreement to its allies. The French Foreign Minister demanded that America inform its allies of the details of the agreement with Russia regarding the ceasefire in Syria... (French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said today, Thursday, September 15, that France wants to see the text of the ceasefire agreement in Syria reached by the United States and Russia so that no confusion occurs regarding who is targeted on the ground...) (DW Arabic website, 15/09/2016).
It appears that the Europeans deliberately embarrassed both America and Russia by suggesting that the agreement contains dangerous clauses! Even Russia was affected and tried to save face. It requested an emergency session of the Security Council to provide international cover for the US-Russian agreement (Zakharova—the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry—clarified Moscow's objective behind this important demand, noting that the agreement consists of "several documents, adopted and agreed upon during the negotiation process... and that the Russian side, at the beginning and during the negotiations, and after reaching a final agreement, actually offered and even urged the American side to publish these documents, and that this must be done; so that these agreements do not become a subject of speculation"...) (Arabi21, 16/09/2016). However, the emergency Security Council session on the night of 16/09/2016 was canceled due to America's insistence on not revealing the terms of the agreement. Naturally, Russia cannot reveal them unilaterally because it operates in Syria with American approval!
This second matter made America, in order to avoid this embarrassment, settle for returning with what it could! It decided to reformulate the truce agreement so that Obama could settle for a truce that leads to something less than a solution—perhaps merely a meeting between the regime and the opposition—and thus the new agreement would be emptied of the embarrassing documents!
7- In light of these two matters facing America, it decided to take a "truce-taker’s break" for more intensified bombing operations to influence the factions and the people to submit to a new meeting between the regime and the opposition according to the modified truce agreement America is preparing during this break! To justify suspending the truce for a period as mentioned, and to remove suspicion that America is behind the suspension and the doubled bombing in coordination with Russia and the regime, America took the following measures:
a- It informed Russia: (of the difficulty of separating the moderate opposition from the "terrorists" in Syria...) (Al-Hadath Channel, 19/09/2016).
b- it made the regime announce the end of the truce and start bombing, with Russia following suit... as reported by various media outlets: (Syrian regime forces announced this Monday the end of the seven-day truce brokered by America and Russia, without any indication of a possibility of renewing it...) (Al Jazeera, 19/09/2016).
c- It fabricated a dispute with Russia, and each party began accusing the other of being behind the failure of the truce:
(The US State Department said that in light of these flagrant violations of the ceasefire agreements stipulated in the recent agreement with Russia, the United States will re-evaluate all future relations with Russia on the Syrian issue...) (Al Jazeera Net, 20/09/2016)... (...Russia and the United States have been trading accusations for days over obstructing the implementation of the agreement, as Moscow believed that Washington did not fulfill its obligations regarding the truce, especially concerning the identification of areas where opposition factions and members of the Jabhat Fath al-Sham are located, while Washington threatened not to coordinate militarily with Russia if aid was not brought into the besieged areas...) (Khaleej Online, 24/09/2016) - End.
d- America stirred a dispute between the Pentagon and the State Department, claiming the Pentagon objects to the terms of the truce, as if the truce was concluded overnight without the Pentagon's knowledge! Knowing that the negotiations were taking place before their eyes and ears, and if they had objected, they would have done so before, not after the end of the truce. This is despite the fact that the truce imposed on 12/09/2016 was extended on 14/09/2016 with the Pentagon's approval! (...After the announcement of the agreement to extend the truce in Syria for another 48 hours, the Al Arabiya correspondent in Washington reported that the Pentagon welcomed this extension on Wednesday evening... The foreign ministers of Russia and America had announced on Wednesday the extension of the ceasefire in Syria for another 48 hours despite the violations that occurred since Monday night, the first day the truce took effect...) (Al Arabiya, 15/09/2016).
8- Thus, the ceasefire in Syria officially collapsed on Monday 19/09/2016 after six days—less than a week since it was imposed by America and Russia. America and Russia were supposed to carry out joint bombing of the revolutionaries in Syria under the name of "War on Terror" after the agreement held for seven days, which did not happen by clear American intent! America began the "truce-taker’s break" and more bombing, while simultaneously modifying the previous truce into a subsequent one, thinking it could find a meeting that brings together the regime and the opposition before Obama's term expires...
This is what is currently happening, and what America, its allies, and its henchmen are working to achieve... this is what they claim. However, the reality of the situation is that the Syrian crisis is a thorn—rather, a tree of thorns—in the throat of Obama, his followers, and his subordinates. Although he declared previously, at a time when he was stronger than he is now and had more time than he has now, US President Barack Obama, in a speech regarding the difficulties he faced in the White House, stated: (that the Syrian war and the meetings held regarding the Syrian crisis are what "turned him gray".... Obama said on Thursday, August 4, in a press conference held after his meeting with the National Security Council and military leaders at the US Department of Defense, "I am absolutely certain that the majority of the gray hair on my head is because of the meetings I held regarding Syria"...) (Russia Today, 05/08/2016). If he declared this before, he will no doubt now declare something even more harsh and severe upon himself; he will leave his Black House saying: "Syria killed me"... and he is right to declare that. For despite the fact that Syria is free from international conflict—as America is the international controller, using Russia and marginalizing Europe, and is also the regional controller, with effective countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran being loyal to America, and it also controls the regime and some factions—nevertheless, America, with its allies, followers, and henchmen, has not been able to implement its plans in Syria until now, more than five years later. It is struggling against none but the people of Syria. Therefore, it is not surprising that Obama is stricken with "hysteria" for failing to achieve his goals. Even his special forces that he introduced into Syria with Turkish soldiers could not stand on their feet on the land of Syria; they fled, pursued by chants of condemnation. From whom? From the factions that America trained and thought had surrendered to it!
All of this is because Syria and the people of Syria are overflowing with Islamic sentiments, influenced by sincere forces that increase their awareness and insight, driving them to stand in the face of agents, traitors, and their masters from the colonial and covetous countries in the lands of the Muslims. So how will it be when Islamic thoughts flow through them, and they are moved and led by a sincere Islamic leadership that fulfills the saying of the Messenger of Allah ﷺ in the Hadith reported by At-Tabarani in Al-Mu'jam al-Kabir on the authority of Salamah ibn Nufayl, who said: The Messenger of Allah ﷺ said:
عُقْرُ دَارِ الْإِسْلَامِ بِالشَّامِ
"The heartland of the Abode of Islam is in Ash-Sham."
Then, the Islamic State—the Righteous Khilafah (Caliphate), the Khilafah of truth and justice—will dawn upon them, returning them as masters of the world once again. Thus, Islam and its people will be honored, and disbelief and its people will be humiliated. And that is not difficult for Allah.
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." (Ar-Rum [30]: 4-5)
23 Dhu al-Hijjah 1437 AH 25/09/2016 CE