Answer to Question
Question:
Turkey has intensified its contacts with Russia regarding the Syrian arena in order to reopen American settlement negotiations. BBC reported on 02/12/2016: (Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said that Turkey is consulting with Russia... in order to reach a solution to the Syrian crisis. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan discussed Syrian affairs by phone with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at least three times last week, while Çavuşoğlu met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Turkey on Thursday to discuss the same subject). Despite all this, Russia continues to intensify its brutal attacks on Aleppo, even exercising its veto power against a draft resolution in the Security Council on 05/12/2016 that stipulated a cessation of military operations for a few days in Aleppo. What drives Turkey, despite Russia's brutality, to these talks with it? And what is the reality of what is happening around Aleppo and Syria now? May Allah reward you with good.
Answer:
To clarify the answer, we review the following matters:
First: For more than two months, the US has appeared as if it were escalating the situation with Russia. This was in light of severe European criticism directed at Russia following the extreme brutality of its air campaign against Aleppo, as well as the intense rejection within Syria of the American role, which reached its peak with rebel factions refusing to participate in the Turkish operation "Euphrates Shield" due to the presence of American special forces among them. Consequently, the US realized that a more violent military campaign to bring the Syrians and the revolutionaries to their knees is a necessary condition that must precede a return to negotiations that could have some elements of success. Since then, the US has begun gathering its schemes on several fronts:
- Urging Russia to hasten the dispatch of more lethal military hardware. This saw the arrival of the only Russian aircraft carrier, "Kuznetsov", to the coast of Syria on 01/11/2016 with its combat group, especially the missile-carrying cruiser, and immediately starting a reconnaissance campaign over Syrian targets, particularly over Aleppo. This is in addition to the aircraft and equipment Russia already possesses in Syria, especially at the Hmeimim airport.
- Bringing in more Iranian forces and their followers, especially to the Aleppo region.
- "Cooling down" most other fronts in Syria through Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and others, utilizing the influence these countries have—backed by the dollar—over the Syrian fighting factions. This led to an increase in truces and reconciliations and scenes of buses loaded with revolutionaries and their families to Idlib, in a manner portending a collapse. All this was to make way for the regime to send reinforcements to Aleppo from the fronts that had been cooled. Added to this is the effort of those countries to ignite the fire of internal strife within Aleppo itself; there were clashes between the besieged revolutionaries, which—praise be to Allah—were contained.
- Added to this is the continuation of Erdoğan's "Euphrates Shield" campaign and his attempt to attract more fighting factions loyal to Turkey to the battle of al-Bab after Jarabulus. All of this is in order to weaken the real front in Aleppo, which is relied upon to break the suffocating siege on the city and come to its aid... (Field reports stated that the Syrian armed opposition's loss of a third of the territory they held in eastern Aleppo was due to the withdrawal of a large number of opposition fighters from the combat fronts in Aleppo to support Turkish forces in their battles against ISIS and Kurdish groups within the "Euphrates Shield" operation. The Director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel Rahman, said in statements to Sky News Arabia on Monday that "Turkish orders reached loyal fighters within the Free Army to join the forces fighting the ISIS organization within the Euphrates Shield operation" launched by Ankara a month ago against ISIS and the Kurds, as Ankara fears they will establish control over border areas. Abdel Rahman explained that the Turkish intervention is the "keyword" and an important reason for the defeat of the opposition, given the use of factions affiliated with the Free Army in its own battle, which led to the vacancy of fronts that were supposed to face the Syrian army and its allies.) (Sky News Arabia, 28/11/2016).
Second: Thus, real and significant pressure was applied to the revolutionaries of Aleppo by seizing many of the liberated neighborhoods from them. The revolutionaries were confined to a narrower area, and violent bombardment and threats of storming the remaining neighborhoods continued. Here, with international calls demanding a ceasefire, the US found an opportunity—perhaps opportune—to revive the political path for a solution in Syria, under a new atmosphere that requires haste and does not tolerate delay. This is indicated by the following facts:
- The US realizes that seizing important neighborhoods in eastern Aleppo is not the end of the Syrian revolution; liquidating the revolutionaries in various regions of Syria is an unattainable dream. It realizes that the long years of revolution in Syria have created a dangerous Islamic atmosphere; therefore, it is hurrying to eliminate this atmosphere. Politics and its corridors are more effective in eliminating it than the military machine, which only increases its fueling. Therefore, as the US has despaired that killing and destruction, even more of it, would lead to subduing the people in Syria, it has for years been seizing opportunities for a political solution according to its plans.
- The current Obama administration will leave the White House on 20/01/2017, and it still dreams of leaving it with an achievement credited to this administration. Therefore, after the Syrian army entered the neighborhoods of Aleppo, Russia mentioned that Secretary of State Kerry is frantically seeking a deal in Aleppo. Russia Today reported on 28/11/2016: (Yuri Ushakov, assistant to the Russian President, said on Monday, November 28: "If you ask about Kerry's efforts, they are very intensive." He added: "We can describe these efforts as extraordinary, given the unprecedented intensity of telephone contacts between the American and Russian foreign ministers, as the focus is primarily on one topic, which is Syria").
- The US delegating Turkey and training it to play a prominent political role on its behalf, to a degree that the Kerry-Lavrov duality seemed to be replaced by a Russia-Turkey duality. This explains Turkey's intensive contacts in the period following the seizure of eastern Aleppo neighborhoods, as well as the frantic increase in meetings of Turkish officials with their Russian counterparts, and visits by Turkish officials to Lebanon and Iran... These Turkish visits and meetings were intensive and remarkable as follows:
- (Iranian President Hassan Rouhani discussed today, Saturday 26/11/2016, in Tehran with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu the Syrian crisis, other regional files, in addition to bilateral relations between the two countries. The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported that the Turkish Foreign Minister would continue his consultations in Tehran with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif...) (Al-Jazeera Net, 26/11/2016).
- For its part, Anadolu Agency said: (Çavuşoğlu, Turkey's Foreign Minister, discussed with Riyad Hijab the need for an immediate ceasefire and the delivery of humanitarian aid to Aleppo, along with efforts to find a political solution to the conflict in the country.) (Al-Jazeera Net, 30/11/2016).
- Lavrov's visit to Turkey on 30/11/2016: (Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that the Russian-Turkish agreements on Syria, at the military, diplomatic, and political levels, are being implemented...) (Russia Today, 01/12/2016). Lavrov added (that Russia and Turkey will continue discussions to reach a solution to the Syrian crisis as soon as possible...) (Al-Jazeera Net, 01/12/2016).
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (discussed Syrian affairs by phone with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at least 3 times in the past week...) (BBC, 02/12/2016).
- (Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said in a press conference in the Turkish city of Alanya, accompanied by his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, "We agree on the need for a ceasefire to end the tragedy.") (BBC Arabic, 01/12/2016). He said (that Turkey is consulting with Russia and Iran, Assad's allies, and with Syria and Lebanon as well in order to reach a solution to the Syrian crisis.) (BBC, 02/12/2016).
- Sputnik quoted Samir Nashar, a member of the opposition coalition, on Thursday, December 1, saying: "Meetings took place three days ago through Turkish efforts, and there was great secrecy. The factions that met were the factions that Turkey can exercise some influence over, but these meetings did not result in any tangible results." (Russia Today, 01/12/2016). The Financial Times reported on Thursday, December 1, that a number of Syrian opposition leaders (are holding secret talks with Russian officials under Turkish sponsorship to end the ongoing fighting in the city of Aleppo. The newspaper added that "four members of the opposition in northern Syria told it that Turkey is sponsoring talks with Russian officials in the capital, Ankara".) (BBC Arabic, 01/12/2016)... (The movement "Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya", on behalf of the "Islamic Front", is leading negotiations with Russian officials in order to reach a truce in Aleppo, under which fighters from "Jabhat Fatah al-Sham" would be evacuated via the Castello Road, and roads for evacuating the wounded and sick from eastern neighborhoods would be opened under the supervision of a UN team. Sources from Al-Modon indicate that the departure of "Fatah al-Sham" from Aleppo will take place via a Turkish plan, under which Ankara will later handle the matter of providing aid to the besieged neighborhoods.) (Al-Modon, 03/12/2016).
- As for America's satisfaction with those Turkish movements, it appeared in the US State Department's welcome of those negotiations (... In a press briefing, Mark Toner, the department's spokesman, said on Thursday, December 1: "We have seen reports that Russia is negotiating with the Syrian rebels..." The spokesman added: "As for our reaction, we are ready to welcome all genuine efforts aimed at alleviating the suffering of the Syrian people, especially in Aleppo" (Russia Today, 01/12/2016). So America is behind what is happening, especially since it agrees with Russia on the course of negotiations and settlement. Russian Foreign Minister revealed on Saturday, December 3, that his American counterpart John Kerry handed him proposals regarding a settlement in Aleppo "consistent with the positions held by Russia" (Russia Today, 03/12/2016) ... (Lavrov said in a press conference that Russia and the United States will start talks regarding the withdrawal in Geneva tomorrow evening or Wednesday morning, explaining that US Secretary of State John Kerry "sent his proposals regarding the paths and timing of the withdrawal") (Dar Al Hayat, 05/12/2016). (He confirmed that the Russian side was ready to start consultations as of Monday, December 5, but Washington asked to delay the experts' meeting a little, and it is expected that those consultations will start Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.) (Russia Today, 05/12/2016). For all this, the recent Turkish movements and their intensity are far more significant than Turkey alone being the one behind them. It is certain that the US is the one pushing Turkey, step by step... and it is the one managing those negotiations with Russia according to its proposals that it handed to Russia at the time when the Obama administration is carefully counting the days, hoping it can achieve an accomplishment, even if only in Aleppo, in the few remaining weeks of that administration's life.
Third: As for the chances of American success in bringing the fighting factions to the negotiating table and reviving the political process in Syria, it is governed by the following facts:
- Inside Syria, the rejection of peaceful solutions is growing. Syrians have become certain of the conspiracy of the Arab countries and Turkey against them along with the US and Russia. It has become clear, beyond any doubt, that those countries stand against the Syrian revolution... This internal front is pressing the factions to correct their course after much of it became tainted by external loyalties and influenced by "dirty political money." This was evident in the reconciliations, truces, cooling of fronts, and adherence to red lines and instructions from the coordination rooms "MOC" and "MOM". The popular uprising inside Syria pressing the factions preceded the recent campaign of the regime and its allies on eastern Aleppo. Now, this uprising has grown, describing the compromising factions as traitors and demanding that their leaders be removed. Faced with this fierce military attack, the factions inside Aleppo took the initiative to dissolve themselves and establish the "Army of Aleppo" (Jaish Halab) and become one force. This is a good step that may lead to disengaging from external loyalties in the face of imminent danger. (Samir Nashar, a member of the Syrian National Coalition, attributed the lack of results in the factions' negotiations with Russia in Turkey to the fact that the primary decision belongs to the armed groups besieged in the city of Aleppo, saying: "These meetings did not result in any tangible results because those besieged within the city of Aleppo have made their decision independent of their leadership outside the city, and therefore the decision has become highly independent relating to those besieged inside the city") (Russia Today, 01/12/2016). Those armed groups inside Aleppo did not care about the treacherous negotiations and brutal threats of surrender happening outside (A Syrian opposition official said that the leaders of the opposition fighters will not surrender eastern Aleppo to government forces, after Russia said it was ready to hold talks with the United States regarding the withdrawal of all opposition fighters from the region, according to Reuters on Saturday...) (Al-Hurra, 03/12/2016).
- Thus, the people who woke up to find the jewel of the revolution, "Aleppo," under imminent danger, did not rush to surrender and agree to political solutions. Rather, they have begun to push with greater momentum to correct the course of the factions loyal to the Arab countries and Turkey—those factions for whom financial support turned into a major brake preventing them from continuing the revolution... Thus, the wicked was distinguished from the good... The wicked complied with the masters in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and others, and hurried to the submissive political process for the US, its allies, and its followers, falling into the trench of the conspirators against the revolution... As for the good, they were sincere in determination and did not bow except to Allah (swt). This "good" is, by the permission of Allah, what will make the plot gathered by the US from Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the Arab countries into scattered dust.
This brutal attack and this legendary steadfastness of the resistance in Aleppo have not only exposed the local wicked ones but have also exposed every wicked regional player, especially Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Iran contributes with brutal killing acts surpassed only by Russian killing acts according to American plans. Saudi Arabia contributes with dirty money to feed some factions to participate in treacherous negotiations. Turkey took deception as a weapon to implement American plans; it raised its voice that it would not let Aleppo down, yet it failed it in front of everyone. Not only this, but it did not even protect its own historic figure's tomb buried in the Aleppo region and moved it from there to a distant area! Then it increased the volume of its voice saying it would not allow a "second Hama," yet a second and third occurred without it lifting a finger! When it felt ashamed of these positions, it recently tried to raise its voice again, so Erdoğan stated that Euphrates Shield was intended for "the departure of Assad" (Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in a speech at a seminar dedicated to Jerusalem in Istanbul, Tuesday, November 29: "... and we entered Syria with the Free Syrian Army," and Erdoğan added: "Why did we enter? We entered to put an end to the rule of the tyrant Assad who terrorizes Syrians with a state of terror. Our entry was not for any other reason") (Russia Today, 29/11/2016). But before the echo of his voice died down, he backtracked to please Russia, which bombs Aleppo morning and evening! (President Erdoğan delivered a speech at the 30th meeting of village heads (Mukhtars) held at the presidential complex, where he said that the ongoing Euphrates Shield operation in Syria led by the Turkish Armed Forces does not target a specific person or country. "This ongoing operation since August 24 targets terrorist organizations.") (TRT Arabic, 01/12/2016). Russia realized that Erdoğan's statement about Assad's departure was meaningless, as the Russian Foreign Minister commented on it Thursday, December 1, saying: (Moscow relies in the practical field on the agreements reached between the presidents of the two countries, which are being implemented, and not on unilateral statements that are often released.) (Russia Today, 01/12/2016)... And today, 07/12/2016, during Yıldırım's visit to Moscow, he stated clearly in an interview with the Russian agency Interfax that the Euphrates Shield operation (is not related to the events taking place in the center of Aleppo city, and has nothing to do with the process of changing the Syrian regime.) (Al-Khaleej Online, 07/12/2016).
Fourth: Thus, the US coordinates fully with Russia in its brutal attacks and it is behind "Euphrates Shield", one of whose goals is to withdraw factions from the Aleppo front to "Euphrates Shield" actions and thus weaken the Aleppo front... As well as sponsoring the negotiations of its suspicious factions with Russia, and also behind the mobilization of Iran and its followers. Furthermore, the US is behind the prevention of effective weapons for the opposition. What the media published today, 07/12/2016, that the US House of Representatives (passed a bill allowing the administration of President-elect Donald Trump to send anti-aircraft surface-to-air missiles to opposition factions in Syria... The Washington Post reported that the draft resolution includes some restrictions on the transfer of these weapons.) (Al-Arabiya, 07/12/2016) does not change that. It came at "extra time" after Aleppo was on the verge of destruction, and its occurrence is doubtful. Even if it happens, it will be a "disarmed weapon"! It will not be used except with the permission of the enemy of Islam and Muslims. Can grapes be expected from thorns?! Furthermore, they passed this draft law to be implemented not now, but during the era of Trump, who announced the prevention of weapons for the opposition before his era even began! It is deception upon deception and indeed a great slander...
Despite all this, no matter how much destruction Aleppo suffers, it will rise again. The land of Ash-Sham in general and the glorious Aleppo in particular will remain a poisoned dagger in the throats of the US, Russia, their followers, and proxies, disturbing their sleep and killing them with their own crimes. They will not enjoy a victory they claim; for not being able to enter a land except after destroying it is an illusory victory... And not being able to overcome a fighter except after his martyrdom is the victory of the defeated... And to mobilize destructive missiles, explosive barrels, and organized armies against hundreds or a few thousands, yet they cannot confront them except with aerial bombers and warships, this is the victory of the terrified coward from meeting real men, and the fate of such a victory is to perish...
The US, Russia, the allies, the proxies, and the followers want to repeat, through their brutal crimes, the path of their predecessors from the Crusaders and the Mongols (Tatars) in what they did of crimes in Iraq and the Levant. But these people have not learned from the fate of those; for the Muslims uprooted them from their lands and rose again. The glory of Islam and Muslims returned, their Khilafah strengthened, they conquered the city of Heraclius and it became the city of Islam, "Istanbul", and they approached Moscow and knocked on the gates of Vienna. Days are of varying fortune, and indeed tomorrow is near for the one who awaits it.
وَسَيَعْلَمُ الَّذِينَ ظَلَمُوا أَيَّ مُنْقَلَبٍ يَنْقَلِبُونَ
"And those who have wronged are going to know to what [kind of] return they will be returned." (Surah Ash-Shu'ara [26]: 227)
Wednesday, 8th Rabi’ al-Awwal 1438 AH
07/12/2016 CE
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