Answer to Question:
Question:
On the evening of 2/4/2015, the framework agreement between the P5+1 countries and Iran regarding its nuclear program was signed in Lausanne, Switzerland, with the final signing scheduled for 30/6/2015. It was striking that as soon as the reading of the joint statement between these parties was concluded, US President Obama came out to deliver a speech to journalists at the White House, declaring that this agreement was historic. What, then, lies behind this agreement? May Allah bless you.
Answer:
To clarify the answer, we review the following matters:
Immediately following the agreement, the US President delivered a speech at the White House dedicated to this deal, stating: "We have reached a historic understanding with Iran on its nuclear program, which, if implemented, will prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon." He said, "We have reached a deal to stop Iran's progress in the nuclear program," and added that "Tehran has fulfilled its duties and opened the door to verify this matter." He described the deal as "good, meeting our core objectives," and said, "Iran has accepted an unprecedented verification monitoring system, and the door will be closed for Iran to enrich uranium, and most of its stockpile of enriched uranium and two-thirds of its centrifuges will be reduced." He stated, "Iran will never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, and in return, we will gradually ease the sanctions we imposed and those imposed by the Security Council." He noted that "negotiations will continue until June to agree on the fine details" and stressed that "nuclear inspectors will have unprecedented influence over Iranian nuclear facilities." He said: "For the Iranian people, we are ready to work for the common interest" (Radio Sawa American, 2/4/2015). These statements by the US President indicate the extent of the US administration's eagerness to reach this agreement, and that this agreement was in America's interest as it achieved what it wanted. He argued that others have no excuse to object to it, addressing the position of the Republican opponents of the agreement in Congress and the Prime Minister of the Jewish entity, Netanyahu. Obama added that he wants to work with Iran under the name of "common interest," meaning to harness Iran to achieve American projects in the region. He does not want Iran to remain preoccupied with the threats of the Jewish entity, the incitements of the European trio (Britain, France, and Germany), the stirring of new problems for it, or to keep it suffering under the weight of sanctions.
Iran has "agreed to reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium from 10,000 kilograms to 300 kilograms of 3.67% low-enriched uranium for 15 years. It pledged not to build any new nuclear facilities for uranium enrichment for 15 years. It agreed to reduce the installed centrifuges by two-thirds, falling from 19,000 currently to 6,104 under the agreement, of which only 5,060 will enrich uranium for 10 years. The Natanz facility will be the only one enriching uranium in Iran (at a low rate). Iran will not enrich uranium at the Fordow facility for 15 years, but will instead dedicate it to nuclear and physics research. Iran is committed to an enrichment and research plan that it submits to the International Atomic Energy Agency, ensuring it is prevented from developing a nuclear bomb for 10 years. The agreement grants international monitors the right to monitor uranium mines and yellowcake manufacturing sites for 25 years. International monitors have the right to continuous monitoring of centrifuges and warehouses for 20 years, with a freeze on the manufacturing of centrifuges." (Asharq Al-Awsat, 3/4/2015). Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated: "Iran will fulfill all the obligations it has undertaken, provided that the other party acts on its commitments." (Al-Alam Iranian page, 3/4/2015). Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said: "Lifting sanctions will be a major step forward. We have stopped a path that was undesirable for everyone. It was not desirable for the nuclear non-proliferation process or any other party." (Radio Sawa American, 2/4/2015). It appears from this that Iran has agreed to stop its activity in increasing uranium enrichment and accepted it to be at the lowest level, such that it cannot produce a nuclear weapon. It has reduced the number of centrifuges to one-third. It will remain under international monitoring for 25 years, and it will be bound by this throughout this period, as stated by its president. What matters to Iran is the lifting of sanctions; Javad Zarif stated: "The sanctions imposed on Iran will end upon the implementation of the measures agreed upon with the major powers." Likewise, it seeks to play a role drawn for it by America in the region and to achieve national interests therein, as some of its officials have begun to speak about the dream of an "Iranian Empire." For this reason, it sacrificed its nuclear program!
As for the rest of the countries in the P5+1 group, it was clear that their role was marginal. The actual negotiations were, in most cases, taking place between America and Iran alone, publicly and not secretly. The role of the others was closer to that of a spectator than a player. Evidence indicated that America had finalized the agreement with Iran, and the matter was only waiting for the production process through steps that the other countries in the group were watching. If they saw something they did not like, they would "pout," leave to calm down, and then return to sign or delegate someone in their place! This was evident in the positions of the ministers of these countries. Lavrov said during his visit to Tajikistan that "the situation is unusual, unprecedented..." and noted that "the significance of the current stage lies in formulating the political framework agreement, and it has become clear in all its components." The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Alexander Lukashevich, said: "Russia does not see an urgent need for its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to return to Lausanne, and what the participants in the negotiations are currently doing is verifying the preliminary agreements..." (Russia Today, Novosti Russian, 2/4/2015). It appears from the words of the Russians that the matter was prepared beforehand and concluded, leaving only the signing. Therefore, they did not see a need for their foreign minister to go and sign. It was he who said this matter was "unusual," referring to the US Secretary of State, who had been meeting most frequently with the Iranians, headed by their Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, for weeks alone... and intensified these meetings without pause in the final week since 26/3/2015 until the time for signing came at the end of last month, when the foreign ministers of the other countries in the group were called to participate in the signing! However, the day before the signing, they left the meetings when they found everything prepared and that America insisted on signing as is. The French Foreign Minister left through the back door in anger, the German was about to travel to the Baltic republics, and the Russian, as we mentioned earlier, did not return but left his deputy. As for the Chinese, it was as if the matter did not concern him, and as for the Englishman, his coldness prevailed; he did not leave and showed neither discontent nor satisfaction, but rather waited to see what would happen, as is the habit of English malice... But in the end, everyone returned to the signing ceremony. However, to save face, they began discussing what America had prepared, and the discussion extended for two days. Then they signed the agreement without being able, or being allowed, to change anything of significance in it! The Russian Foreign Minister considered that the agreement was completed between America and Iran before that day, and the signing now was nothing but a political matter. Thus, he saw no reason for his presence in Lausanne, so his deputy signed on his behalf. Thus, the primary role in the agreement was for America with Iran.
The Republicans, who control Congress, showed their dissatisfaction with the agreement due to partisan opposition considerations and for future electoral purposes. The Obama administration signed it despite their opposition to achieve foreign policy successes and to be able to use Iran in implementing its projects and plans in the region. US House Speaker John Boehner stated: "The parameters of a final agreement represent an alarming departure from the core objectives set by the White House," and said, "Congress must have the right to fully review the details of any agreement before sanctions are lifted. The framework of the agreement announced Thursday 2/4/2015 represents an alarming deviation from Obama's initial goals." (AFP, 3/4/2015). The House Foreign Affairs Committee is scheduled to vote on the 14th of this month on a proposal that requires the Obama administration to present the agreement to the House and then vote on it. However, the Obama administration rejects this and says that concluding such an agreement is exclusively within the powers of the executive branch, and Congressional interference in the matter would create a precedent.
Regarding the position of the Jewish entity, Netanyahu stated: "A framework agreement based on this deal would threaten the survival of Israel" (AFP, 3/4/2015). This is despite the fact that shortly before the announcement of the agreement in Lausanne, he demanded that any agreement must include a "significant reduction in Iran's nuclear capabilities" and said, "A better deal would significantly roll back Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. A better deal would link the lifting of sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program to a change in Iran’s behavior" (Reuters, 1/4/2015). This was achieved for him in the Lausanne agreement. Thus, Netanyahu's position is one of blackmail to obtain more American aid and commitments to protect the Jewish entity, and to confirm his previous position on this issue for electoral purposes, which he won. He also seeks to strengthen his relationship with the incoming Republicans to power, as he sees them in the upcoming US presidential elections in 2016. Netanyahu went to America to deliver a speech in Congress at the invitation of the Republicans and spoke about the dangers of the agreement with Iran. He knows that the agreement undermines Iran's capabilities to produce nuclear weapons, and he knows that Iran plays a role in the region drawn for it by America that greatly benefits the Jewish entity, as Iran protects the Syrian regime which provides security for it on the Golan, preoccupies the region with internal wars, and prevents the unity of the Islamic Ummah and the implementation of its project, which is the establishment of the Khilafah. Obama, in a phone call with Netanyahu, confirmed the United States' commitment to defending the state of the Jews... and Obama asked his security team to "intensify negotiations with the new Israeli government on ways to strengthen security cooperation between the two countries" (AFP, 3/4/2015).
From all this, the following becomes clear:
a. America is the one that prepared and "cooked" this agreement with Iran, just as it prepared and cooked the Geneva agreement on 24/11/2013. The other five countries only had to read the agreement to sign it quickly. However, it was delayed for two days due to discussions allowed to the other countries to save face... then they approved and signed it.
b. America's purpose is to ease the pressures and sanctions on Iran or lift them entirely so that it can use Iran in the region to play a role drawn for it by America. For this reason, the Obama administration put all its weight and focused all its thinking on achieving this agreement, to record a success for it in foreign policy. Therefore, the US President considered it a historic understanding.
c. The obstacle of the Republicans in Congress remains in the face of the Obama administration. they are working to ensure that the Democratic Obama administration does not appear successful for electoral considerations. They want to place the President under their control. Apparently, the conflict between the two parties will continue. It is expected that the Obama administration will be able to lift some of the sanctions it imposed on Iran, but there are some sanctions that this administration cannot lift except with the approval of Congress. Therefore, it is possible that some sanctions on Iran will remain suspended until a later time.
d. The position of Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of the Jewish entity, is one of blackmail to obtain more American aid and commitments to protect his entity, to confirm his previous position on this issue for electoral purposes (which he won), and to strengthen his relationship with the Republicans, believing they are the ones coming to power in the next US presidential elections. This is because the state of the Jews does not dare to break its reliance on America.
e. As for Iran, it has conceded its programs for increasing uranium enrichment and accepted it to be at the lowest level, such that it cannot produce a nuclear weapon. It has reduced the number of centrifuges to one-third. It will remain under international monitoring for 25 years, and it will be bound by this throughout this period, as stated by its president. What matters to Iran is the lifting of sanctions and involvement in the region to play a role drawn for it by America under the pretext of "common interests" and achieving a role for itself in the region by walking with America. If the authority in Iran had well-understood the events, it would have known that no fruit is expected from thorns, nor any good from the "Great Satan," and the nuclear agreement in Lausanne speaks to that.