Question:
On Monday, 08/08/2016, a trilateral summit was held for the first time, bringing together the presidents of Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. The final statement mentioned several topics discussed, such as relations between the three countries, economic cooperation, the North-South Corridor, combating terrorism, the Syrian crisis, Afghanistan, drug trafficking, extremism, transnational crime, illegal arms trafficking, and human trafficking... etc., all in one day! Is this for media propaganda, or was there a specific topic focused on while the rest were merely minor details? Furthermore, since Iran and Azerbaijan follow American policy, does America have a role in this meeting? If so, what is its purpose?
Answer:
Yes, it is not reasonable to focus on such a wide range of topics in one or two sessions, in a single day or part of a day! It appears that the economic issue was the primary purpose of this summit, specifically the establishment of the economic corridor known as the (North-South Corridor)... and that America plays a fundamental role in this, which is to distance Russia from China and exhaust it economically by preoccupying it with this corridor from Russia to Azerbaijan, then Iran and the Gulf... To clarify this, we review the following points:
First: The other matters mentioned in the final statement are not of great significance for a summit meeting... We detail them as follows:
As for Afghanistan, none of these three countries has any control over Afghan affairs; rather, the influential and effective state there is America, as it dominates the Afghan government. Therefore, its mention in the statement is merely a footnote!
As for transnational crime and human trafficking, these are not among the shared priorities of the mentioned countries to the extent that a summit would be held for them...
Regarding the Syrian crisis, Russia and Iran need to coordinate with each other concerning Syria to avoid defeat there. However, the fact that Azerbaijan has no role in the Syrian crisis makes the summit's convening not for this purpose, especially since Azerbaijan was the one that called for the summit: ("It is noteworthy that this trilateral meeting held on Monday is the first in this format, which was proposed by the Azerbaijani president during a phone call he had with his Russian counterpart last February.") (Source: i24news, 08/08/2016). This means that the summit called for by Azerbaijan would not be for the Syrian crisis, as Azerbaijan has no role in it.
As for combating terrorism, drugs, and the transit of weapons and militants—especially between Azerbaijan and Russia as a corridor for the Mujahideen to the Caucasus, as was the case during the Chechen wars throughout the 1990s... Although Russia mentioned it at the summit, as reported by Russia Today on 08/08/2016: "During his trilateral meeting with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani and Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev, President Vladimir Putin stressed the need to confront the transit of militants, weapons, and drugs across the three countries. On Monday, August 8, President Putin called for activating the exchange of information between the three countries regarding the activities of terrorist organizations." However, Russia can settle such issues bilaterally with Azerbaijan without the need for a summit including the Iranian president. The issue of "militant and weapon transit" is a Russo-Azerbaijani problem because the passage of "militants" usually occurs through Azerbaijan... As for drugs coming from Afghanistan through Iran and Azerbaijan, although this issue has an impact, it is not a priority for these countries under current circumstances to hold a summit for it...
Second: Thus, while the previous matters have an impact, they are not a reason to hold a summit between the three countries... What remains is the economic topic, which is the primary purpose for convening this summit, especially the establishment of the economic corridor (North-South Corridor)... To clarify this, we highlight what appeared in the statement regarding economic matters, as well as the statements made regarding this topic:
The final statement noted: ("Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan decided to take measures to develop transport infrastructure, including the development of the 'North-South' corridor, where the three parties seek to exert efforts to integrate regional transport potential, aiming to create infrastructure for economic, profitable, and environmentally safe transportation... The three countries intend to take steps to develop transport infrastructure to improve existing capabilities for transporting passengers and goods via the international transport corridor 'North-South'... The statement also noted that Moscow, Tehran, and Baku are continuing together to 'contribute to the implementation of new projects to link railway lines, within plans to develop and improve the efficiency of the international transport corridor 'North-South'...'") (Russia Today, 09/08/2016).
Iranian President Rouhani's statement about the purpose of the conference: "Strengthening large-scale development opportunities between these countries" (Al-Alam News Network website, 08/08/2016).
What was reported by the Russian media regarding the most prominent purposes of the conference: (The Russian agency Sputnik reported on 08/08/2016 about a massive Russian-Iranian project that competes with the Egyptian Suez Canal. The Russian agency stated, "Among the most important topics that will be presented at the summit is the establishment of an international corridor linking the North and the South, so that this project competes with the Egyptian Suez Canal to some extent, as the length of the corridor is 7,200 kilometers, linking Northern Europe to India, and the Gulf States via Iran, Russia, and Azerbaijan. The Iranian Foreign Minister announced that this project will serve the interests of the peoples of Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia, and the interests of the entire region, as the project will provide a cost-effective and time-efficient alternative to the sea route through the Suez Canal").
Similarly, Russia Today mentioned on 08/08/2016 that: ("The Russian President confirmed before the summit that trilateral cooperation between Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan would allow the implementation of several new projects in the Caspian region. Putin said: 'We have many topics for discussion in the trilateral format'...")
Thus, the primary purpose of this conference is economic cooperation, specifically the North-South Corridor. It is prioritized over economic projects on the Caspian Sea because the other countries on this sea were not invited to the summit. Therefore, discussing this topic at the summit was not for immediate implementation as much as it is a future discussion that may be distant until an understanding is reached with the other littoral states. As for the corridor, it concerns the three countries, especially since the Russian media highlighted it and stated it would compete with the Suez Canal...
Third: As for the American role, it is indeed present. Some of it does not require deep thinking, while some requires reflection and depth...
The first part can be easily understood from the fact that these three countries differ in their reality. Russia is an independent state with its own regional and international policies, while Iran and Azerbaijan are two countries that follow American policy, and the foreign policy of such countries is not separate from American policy. In other words, the establishment of a corridor from the North to the South reaching the Gulf on the shores of Iran is not separate from American policy. This is the first part that can be understood easily without deep thinking. As for the second part, which requires depth and reflection, it can be understood by taking the following matters into account:
America noted Russia's difficult economic situation, so it ordered Azerbaijan and Iran to entice Russia with a large economic project that exhausts the Russian economy... Just as America's policy on the Chinese side is to preoccupy it with spending on massive projects like the Chinese economic corridor through Pakistan, America also wants to push Russia to spend on the new "North-South" corridor to exhaust its economy and force it into debts from the IMF and the World Bank, which America dominates. For all of this, it has ordered Iran and Azerbaijan to also spend on this "corridor" project to encourage Russia to move forward and get involved in it.
While America is intensifying its policies in the Far East to prevent China from becoming a prominent global power and is stirring up centers of tension around China, it certainly realizes that the most dangerous aspect of the Russian orientation toward Asia is Russia's orientation toward China. If America's policy is based on isolating China from strengthening itself through other major powers, it certainly realizes that Russia is the most dangerous of those countries regarding the issue of rapprochement with China. Within the framework of distancing Russia from China, it entices it with such a "North-South" corridor, especially since this economic corridor passing through Azerbaijan and Russia is like a twin to the Indian-Iranian economic corridor, which connects India by sea to Iran at the Iranian port of Chabahar and also links Iran to Afghanistan by land. This means the new corridor passing through Russia "North-South" gives more vitality to the Indian economic corridor by linking it to Northern Europe. Thus, Russia appears alongside India—the traditional enemy of China in South Asia—thereby creating a rift between them. On the other hand, Russia's integration into this economic corridor with Iran and Azerbaijan will certainly limit Russia's integration with Chinese plans in economic corridors, such as the "Silk Road" corridor... Overall, America observes a worrying trend of Russia toward China, so it pushes its followers in Iran and Azerbaijan to entice Russia with joint projects with them so that Russia turns away from China and China turns away from it.
Fourth: The conclusion is:
The purpose of the trilateral summit in Baku on 08/08/2016 is economic, specifically the North-South Corridor.
There is an influential role for America in the summit through Azerbaijan and Iran by involving Russia in the North-South Corridor project to exhaust the Russian economy during its current crisis and push Russia to be preoccupied with projects toward the southwest of Russia to Azerbaijan then Iran, instead of heading toward the southeast of Russia toward China, and thus gradually isolating Russia from China.
11 Dhu al-Qi'dah 1437 AH 14/08/2016 CE