Question:
It has been observed that Erdogan's movements in Syria had relatively calmed down after the Operation Euphrates Shield and Erdogan's squandering of Aleppo, facilitating the regime's control over it. However, he has become active again under the name of Operation Olive Branch towards Afrin since Saturday, 20/01/2018, through artillery and aerial bombardment. As stated in a press release by the Turkish General Staff on Sunday, 21/01/2018, which said: "Operation Olive Branch, which was launched yesterday, Saturday, continues according to the plan drawn for it, and the ground operation began Sunday morning" (Turk Press, 21/01/2018). It is still ongoing. So, what is behind this Operation Olive Branch? And may Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
Before starting to analyze what happened, we must draw attention to a very important matter that forms the axis upon which current Turkish policy revolves. Through it, Erdogan's movements, actions, and statements can be understood. Erdogan's Turkey is clearly loyal to America; he does this in exchange for America supporting him to remain in power, just as it brought him to it. This is evidenced by what the pro-government Turkish newspaper Sabah mentioned on 18/04/2017: "The US President called Turkish President Erdogan yesterday evening and congratulated him on the results of the April 16 referendum on constitutional reforms and the presidential system, mentioning to him that 'he carried out and managed a good campaign for that, and that he personally followed the campaign closely.' He said to Erdogan: 'I give importance to our friendship and there are very important things we will do together.'"
Thus, Erdogan's policy in Syria was effectively supporting America's plans to stabilize the pillars of the regime and pressure the factions to withdraw from vital areas for the regime. The matter of squandering Aleppo and enabling the regime to control it is not far off; he fabricated issues by withdrawing factions to fight there instead of fighting in their own areas to prevent the regime from entering them. This was under the pretext of the Operation Euphrates Shield at a time when the regime was heading towards Aleppo and concentrating its attack there. It is known that the Operation Euphrates Shield was originally carried out with American blessing; Turkey entered the Jarablus area in 2016 at the prompting of America when former US Vice President Joseph Biden came to Ankara and announced from there his explicit support for the entry of the Turkish army on 24/08/2016 and asked the YPG Kurdish forces to withdraw from in front of the Turkish forces under the name of Euphrates Shield. We mentioned in a Q&A dated 25/09/2016 the following: "In order to succeed in the American plans that have begun to focus on Aleppo, it was necessary to re-impose the siege on it. Here, America worked on two axes to re-impose the siege on Aleppo: First: Entering the Turkish army into northern Syria, starting with the Jarablus area in what Turkey announced as the 'Euphrates Shield' operations, and summoning the 'pro-Turkey' rebels from southern Aleppo to fight the Daesh organization, i.e., weakening the real fighting fronts in Aleppo and creating new fronts for internal fighting, and pushing as many rebels as possible away from the fighting front in Aleppo!... etc." Thus, Erdogan withdrew the factions loyal to him to fight in the Al-Bab areas and left Aleppo almost empty of resistance except for a few believers who remained firm there, while most factions left in response to Erdogan's call for Euphrates Shield, and he is repeating this betrayal once again...
These movements are still ongoing, and the latest—but not the last—is enabling the Syrian regime to control important areas in Idlib and then diverting the fighting factions that comply with Turkey's orders to focus on Afrin and forget their home, Idlib, towards which the criminal regime is advancing in coordination with America. This is creating a "storm in a teacup," as if there is tension between Turkey and America to prevent the preparation of new forces affiliated with America! It is well-known that America launches from Turkey toward Syria and arms its agent organizations, including the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which have the majority within the American-affiliated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as Erdogan opened the Incirlik base for them. Thus, Erdogan is repeating the Euphrates Shield scenario to facilitate the regime's entry into Aleppo; he fabricated Olive Branch to facilitate the regime's entry into Idlib. While the Syrian regime was advancing toward Idlib and surrounding the Abu al-Duhur airport, Erdogan moved the fighting toward Afrin! About 25,000 members of the opposition are participating in it, as confirmed by the military leader in "Faylaq al-Sham," Yasser Abdul Rahim: "About 25,000 gunmen from the 'Free Syrian Army' are participating in the Turkish military operation in Afrin... Russia Today: 23/01/2018). This was with America's knowledge and approval; Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated that he "discussed the Syrian crisis and the issue of border security units with US Defense Secretary James Mattis on Monday evening (15/1/2018) in Canada, and mentioned that he also met with US Secretary of State Tillerson on Tuesday evening (16/1/2018) on the sidelines of the 'International Ministerial Meeting on Security and Stability on the Korean Peninsula' in Vancouver, Canada. Cavusoglu said that US Defense Secretary Mattis 'asked us not to believe the news being published (regarding the formation of a new army in northern Syria).' He stressed that 'he is following the matter himself and will remain in contact with us'... Anadolu Agency 17/1/2018)."
This is confirmed by the American statements echoed in the past two days, from which it is understood that Olive Branch, the issue of Afrin, and the movements of the Turkish army and the Free Syrian Army are all with the complete satisfaction of America and Russia, which entered Syria in coordination with America. Among these statements:
"Yesterday, Friday, it seemed as if the Turkish military campaign in Afrin had already begun, even if in its early stages, through the intensification of shelling of certain areas in Afrin, at a high frequency since Thursday-Friday night, with the start of the withdrawal of Russian military police forces from Afrin and its surroundings, which Turkish Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli considered as the 'beginning of the attack on the ground,' according to Al-Jazeera... Al-Araby Al-Jadeed learned from a well-informed Turkish source, 'Another offer was presented, to control the city in exchange for an agreement between Ankara and Moscow on the way it is managed, and the Turkish government taking over a large percentage of reconstruction in the manner of the Euphrates Shield areas, and the success of the Sochi conference by pressuring the Syrian opposition to attend, while the Russians insisted on handing over the city after controlling it to the Syrian regime and not having any opposition forces remain in it, as well as allowing the regime to advance further in Idlib province... Meanwhile, Turkish Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli confirmed during a television interview yesterday... "We know that Russia supports the regime greatly..." As for Turkish expectations for the operation, the Turkish source told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that "it is expected that the operation will continue for a maximum of five to six months... The source pointed out that 'diplomatic channels have not been cut with Washington..'" Al-Araby Al-Jadeed: 20/01/2018).
The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement: "On the twentieth of January, Turkey resorted to its armed forces near Afrin in northwestern Syria... Moscow is concerned about this information," noting that it "is closely following the development of the situation." The ministry added that "Russia remains committed to its position regarding seeking solutions to the conflict in Syria, based on maintaining the territorial integrity of this country and respecting its sovereignty"... Rudaw: 20/01/2018).
"The United States wants the Turkish military operation to remain limited in duration and scope, and urged 'restraint' to preserve civilian lives... US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said: 'We urge Turkey to exercise restraint and ensure that its military operations remain limited in scope and duration and to be careful to avoid civilian casualties.' US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis confirmed on Sunday that Turkey informed the United States before its move, noting that Washington is in contact with Ankara regarding developments... She said that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his American counterpart Rex Tillerson discussed 'measures aimed at ensuring the preservation of stability in the north of the country'... The Turkish Foreign Minister discussed the military operation with his American counterpart, but what transpired between the two parties has not been revealed so far... BBC Arabic: 22/01/2018)."
"US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that his country hopes to work with Turkey to create a safe zone in northwestern Syria to meet Ankara's security needs... The head of the US Central Command, General Joseph Votel, confirms that Turkey briefed his country on its military operation in Afrin, noting that the city does not fall within the scope of US military operations... The US Department of Defense calls for 'not escalating tension,' noting its understanding of Turkey's security concerns in the region... Russia Today: 23/01/2018)."
"The US Central Command said that Turkey briefed them on the military operation in the Syrian city of 'Afrin,' confirming at the same time that the city does not fall within the scope of US military operations. General Joseph Votel, Commander of Central Command, added in a press statement today, Sunday, that his country does not pay special attention to the Turkish operations area... Quds Press: 21/01/2018)."
"US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that his country hopes to work with Turkey to create a safe zone in northwestern Syria to meet Turkey's security needs, on the third day of the Operation Olive Branch launched by the Turkish Armed Forces and the Free Syrian Army in the Syrian 'Afrin' region. The US Secretary of State added: 'We are discussing with Turkish officials and some forces working on the ground as well, how to calm the situation and respond to Ankara's legitimate security concerns'... Turk Press: 23/01/2018)."
"Regarding the statements of US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson about his country's intention to form an army of 30,000 fighters whose mission is 'border guarding,' which raised Ankara's ire and made Tillerson comment on it by saying to reporters on a US government plane: 'His country does not intend to establish any border force in Syria,' and added according to Anadolu that his country owes explanations to Turkey about what news agencies reported regarding the United States' intention to establish a border security force in Syria. In this context, Nauert added: 'We shared with the Turks ideas about the goal of cooperation with local elements, and that the local elements provide security for the areas that were seized from the organization'... Orient Net: 19/01/2018)."
"Last Tuesday, the spokesman for the US Department of Defense 'Pentagon,' Eric Pahon, said that his country understands Turkey's concerns about the border security force it plans to establish in Syria, noting that the issue was discussed with Turkish officials. In response to questions, Pahon indicated that his country is in regular and close contact with Turkey, its partner in the 'NATO' alliance. The Anadolu correspondent reported that Pahon used the phrase 'the alleged border security force' during his answer... As for today, Thursday, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson came out to announce that the United States does not intend to establish any border force in Syria, in his comment on news in this regard. He added in press statements: 'This is something that was portrayed and defined in a wrong way, and some people spoke in a wrong way. We are not establishing any border force'... Yeni Safak Arabic: 17/01/2018)."
It is clear from the previous statements that Operation Olive Branch is a branch carried by Turkey in coordination with America and Russia... and that America's statements at the beginning about establishing a border force of 30,000 were only to provide the justification for the Afrin operation, then after it began, America shifted the statement to something resembling an explicit denial, as the purpose had been achieved!
- Therefore, Turkish movements in Syria are to serve American projects by stabilizing the secular regime in Syria. Erdogan's shouting statements are only to deceive the naive people with words and fiery statements that do not turn into actions, just as he previously said we will not allow a second Hama, yet the regime committed more than one Hama in every city and town... as well as artificial movements that do not produce sincere actions... He deceives people with misleading words that fool the naive, just as he said regarding Trump's decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish entity. Erdogan threatened that it was possible to sever his relationship with the Jewish entity if Jerusalem was recognized as the capital of this entity by America, but he did not sever it, nor did he sever his relationship with America which took this decision and which supports the Jewish entity and provides it with the means of strength and survival. Instead, he called for the American two-state solution, which includes ceding 80% of Palestine to the Jews, and called for (East Jerusalem) as the capital of Palestine, abandoning West Jerusalem to the Jews. Measure against that what he did and is still doing in Syria, and even the betrayals he committed that strengthened the presence of the Russian and American enemies and the Syrian regime, whether by handing over Aleppo, opening bases for America to intervene in Syria, opening Turkish airspace for Russian aircraft, or through the Astana meetings. There, he worked to subject some leaders of the armed factions to accept its decisions and extinguish the fronts against the regime under the name of "de-escalation," withdrawing from areas and handing them over to the regime, and then besieging them in Idlib and much more... then this new chapter in the issue of Olive Branch to facilitate the regime's entry into Idlib...!
Finally, we address all the factions not to be deceived by Erdogan's movements, and not to vacate Idlib for the regime... and not to forget what befell them in Aleppo, but rather to remember the Hadith reported by Bukhari on the authority of Abu Hurairah (ra) that the Prophet (saw) said:
لَا يُلْدَغُ الْمُؤْمِنُ مِنْ جُحْرٍ وَاحِدٍ مَرَّتَيْنِ
"A believer is not stung from the same hole twice." (Narrated by Bukhari)
So how if it was times and times over?!
إِنَّ فِي ذَلِكَ لَذِكْرَى لِمَنْ كَانَ لَهُ قَلْبٌ أَوْ أَلْقَى السَّمْعَ وَهُوَ شَهِيدٌ
"Indeed in that is a reminder for whoever has a heart or who listens while he is present [in mind]." (Surah Qaf 50:37)