Question: Why did Saudi Arabia, which is an agent of America, cooperate with Russia in the OPEC Plus organization to reduce oil production by a large amount, leading to higher prices contrary to America's wishes? Furthermore, America became angry and announced a reassessment of its relations with Saudi Arabia: (Biden pledged that there would be "consequences" for Saudi Arabia for siding with Russia in supporting the cuts through measures aimed at reassessing the relationship between Washington and Riyadh... France24, published on 10/16/2022). What is the explanation for these moves, knowing that Saudi Arabia and its de facto ruler, Ibn Salman, are agents of America? And what is expected from this?
Answer: It must first be recognized that what Saudi Arabia did, followed by the UAE within the OPEC Plus organization in coordination with Russia, to significantly reduce the oil supply in the market by two million barrels per day, is a shocking decision for Biden and Europe. These countries are exerting tremendous efforts to dispense with Russian energy resources and are in dire need of seeing more non-Russian energy resources in global markets so that the shortage does not reflect on prices, which have already become exorbitant, especially in Europe. To understand Saudi Arabia's goals behind this step, the reality of the international climate surrounding it must be understood:
First: The Energy Crisis in Europe
(Months ago, the European Union approved a sixth package of sanctions on Russia due to its war in Ukraine, which included a ban on oil imports from Moscow starting next December. Indeed, EU imports of Russian crude oil fell to 1.7 million barrels per day last August, compared to 2.6 million barrels per day in January... Independent Arabia, 09/12/2022). This European ban includes Russian oil imports arriving by sea but not those coming through some pipelines. To show assistance to Europe, the United States has actually compensated for half of the Russian oil quantities that the EU previously gave up (before the sixth package of sanctions).
From another perspective, Europe specifically is suffering from an escalating energy crisis with gas and electricity prices doubling. This situation results from Europe's heavy reliance on Russian energy resources before the Ukraine war. While natural gas prices are currently four times higher in Europe than in America, this does not apply to oil; oil prices are almost uniform globally, while gas prices vary depending on the existence of transport pipelines or liquefied natural gas processing plants. This means that the sixth package of European sanctions on Russia will lead to a supply shortage in Europe by 1.4 million barrels of oil, a large amount expected to lead to a further increase in oil prices. If the OPEC Plus decision to reduce oil quantities globally by 2 million barrels per day is added to this, prices will become exorbitant.
Second: Russia and the Impact on It
While America and European countries try to besiege the Russian economy and deprive it of money, these countries want to see plenty of oil offered in global markets to reduce Russia's revenues from it. However, the recent OPEC Plus decision makes that supply scarce, leading to supply shortages, higher prices, and Russia benefiting financially, which is what those countries do not want. It is true that America has long-term goals of cutting Europe's ties with Russia, i.e., replacing energy supply chains, but financially strangling Moscow is also a major American goal. Therefore, it is surprising that Saudi Arabia would work against this American objective.
Regarding these American and European goals, these countries are actively discussing imposing a price cap on Russian oil and gas. This is because these countries have seen that Russia, whose energy resources were reduced from European markets due to sanctions, has succeeded in opening new markets for its oil in India, China, and other Asian countries. Despite the discounted price at which Russia sells its oil to those countries, the rise in global oil prices due to sanctions has allowed Russia to compensate for that difference. This means that the financial return to the Russian treasury from oil has not changed compared to the pre-war period. Thus, the idea of imposing a price cap on Russian oil emerged to limit Moscow's financial returns while keeping the oil supply sufficient in global markets so that prices remain reasonable in the eyes of those countries. Imposing a price cap on Russian oil is still in the planning stages, and European countries and America have not dared to impose it yet due to its impact on global prices if Russia refrains from supplying oil to countries that impose a price cap.
Third: US Congressional Elections
The midterm elections for the US Congress will be held on 11/08/2022. The Republican Party, the party of former President Donald Trump, hopes to win these elections and control both houses of Congress; the House and the Senate. These elections are important because their results are an indicator of the 2024 presidential elections, in which the Republican Party plans to return to power. In the context of the sharp division in America between the Democratic Party and the technology companies supporting it, and the Republican Party and the oil companies supporting it, the OPEC Plus decision has deep dimensions related to these elections. This is the crux of the matter in Saudi Arabia's decision to support the organization's production cut.
This crux of the matter is this very critical period for America, one month before its elections: (On October 5, the OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries announced a reduction in oil production by two million barrels per day starting in November, leading to oil prices rising by about 10 percent before retreating slightly this week. Anadolu Agency, 10/12/2022). This inevitable result of the OPEC Plus decision, i.e., rising prices, is the intended goal of Saudi support for the decision. Fuel prices in America are sensitive for the American voter, and their rise changes the mood of that voter, pushing them away from President Biden and his Democratic Party and toward electing Republican candidates. This is indicated by the fact that America was contacting Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states to delay the OPEC Plus decision for one month, i.e., until after the midterm elections. (The Wall Street Journal said that Saudi Arabia refused to respond to appeals from US officials to postpone the decision... quoting sources familiar with the talks, US officials, days before the decision on October 5, contacted their counterparts in the Kingdom and other oil-producing Gulf countries to demand a one-month delay, but they refused... White House officials made several calls to the Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke to the Saudi Finance Minister... Al-Hurra, 10/11/2022). Thus, it is clear that the decision to cut oil production is extremely sensitive for the Democratic Party and the Biden administration just before the elections, and that administration tried to postpone it but failed!
From all this, it becomes clear that Saudi Arabia, through its decisive support for the OPEC Plus decision to cut production by a very large amount, is not planning to support the treasury of Russia, which is hostile to the West, nor is it planning to deepen the energy crisis in Europe. It is too weak to stand against Europe unless its masters in Washington ask it to do so. It is also clear that Saudi Arabia is planning with its masters in America to raise the shares of the Republican Party, Trump's party. While this indicates the deterioration of political life in America due to division, this deterioration becomes appalling when a party works in cooperation with external parties to strike the interests of the other party, even if the other party is the ruling one!
The Biden administration expressed its resentment and showed its anger at Saudi Arabia and its decision. (Biden said in an interview with CNN on Tuesday evening that there would be "some consequences for what they've done with Russia." He added: "I'm not going to get into what I'd consider and what I have in mind. But there will be consequences." Biden indicated that "it's time for Washington to rethink its relationship with the Kingdom (Saudi Arabia)." Anadolu Agency, 10/12/2022). Likewise, (White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said President Joe Biden has been clear since the start of his administration about the need for a different relationship with Saudi Arabia. She added that Washington is reviewing relations and will monitor what happens in the coming weeks in consultation with Congress. She added that the OPEC Plus decision shows that Saudi Arabia is aligning itself with Russia regarding energy policies. Al Jazeera Net, 10/12/2022).
Fourth: As for what is expected, it appears to be as follows:
The OPEC Plus cut of two million barrels per day is a decision that puts strong pressure on the oil supply. Even before this decision, the Biden administration had decided to withdraw one million barrels from the US strategic reserve for six months to counter the rise in fuel prices so that the Biden administration would not be harmed in the Congressional elections and to counter Russia. (CNN Arabic, 03/31/2022).
Through all this, it is clear how the US president is trying to calm local fuel markets before the Congressional elections at a time when Saudi Arabia refuses Biden's requests to increase production. Now, finally, one month before the elections, it supports the OPEC Plus decision for a large cut. In fact, Saudi Arabia did even more; it doubled the amount of oil it imports from Russia... data from Refinitiv Eikon tracking shows (that Saudi Arabia imported 647,000 tons of oil... from Russian ports during the months of April to June, which is double the amount it imported during the same period in 2021. Al-Hurra, 07/15/2022). This is evidence of a major conspiracy carried out by Saudi Arabia in agreement with American oil companies and the Republican Party to spite President Biden's policy regarding Russia and global oil prices.
When the contacts made by members of the previous Trump administration with Saudi Arabia, such as Jared Kushner, are added to all this, it becomes clear that Saudi Arabia is coordinating its oil policy with the American Republican Party, especially the group of former President Trump, and with the American oil companies loyal to the Republican Party. These companies have the upper hand in Saudi oil.
- There is no doubt that this Saudi policy will expose it in the coming days to pressure from the Biden administration, which announced that it is in the process of reviewing its relations with Saudi Arabia. Biden administration officials have begun to link Saudi Arabia and Russia: (President Biden confirmed that "there will be consequences" for Saudi Arabia... and White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby confirmed that the President ordered a "re-evaluation" of the relationship... Al-Hurra, 10/12/2022). Likewise, influential Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, attacked Saudi Arabia, (considering that Riyadh "effectively supports Russia in its brutal invasion of Ukraine"). Senator Richard Durbin said, "Saudi Arabia clearly wants Russia to win the war in Ukraine... Let's be very frank about this, Putin and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are against the United States," asserting that "Saudi Arabia is not a trustworthy ally." (Al-Hurra, 10/12/2022). There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia does not perform these actions for the sake of Russia's interest, as it had thrown its weight heavily against Russian interests in 2020 during the Trump administration to force Russia to cut production at that time. Therefore, the idea that Saudi Arabia supports Russia against America is a fantasy that has no place among the rulers of Saudi Arabia, the agents of America.
Fifth: This is the reality of Saudi Arabia's current oil policy, which strikingly contradicts the desires of the Biden administration but aligns with the desires of the Republican Party and the American oil companies that support it. These companies want, on one hand, to raise prices because they benefit from it, and more importantly, they want to defeat President Biden's Democratic supporters in the upcoming midterm elections in the hope that the Republican Party will control both chambers of Congress, making it easier for them to return to the presidency in 2024.
If Saudi Arabia and the small Gulf oil states wanted to control the oil markets in terms of marketing and pricing, they would have done so for their own benefit and the benefit of their people. However, these agent rulers do not entertain such thoughts; they have been saturated with agency and submission to the foreigner, and with enmity toward Islam and its people. Nothing will make the oil of the Muslims a weapon in their hands rather than in the hands of their enemies except the upcoming Khilafah state, soon by the will of Allah.
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." (Surah Ar-Rum [30]: 4-5)
21st Rabi' al-Awwal 1444 AH 10/17/2022 CE