Question:
On October 1, 2022, France 24 reported: "A spokesperson for the Ukrainian army announced that its forces had entered the town of Lyman in the east of the country (Donetsk region) after surrounding Russian forces..." This followed Russian President Putin's order on Wednesday for "the first mobilization in his country since World War II after a major setback on the battlefield in Ukraine..." (Euronews, September 21, 2022). This occurred after a counter-offensive in which Ukraine reclaimed vast areas previously occupied by Russia: "The Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister stated Sunday to Al-Hurra that Ukraine has reclaimed 10,000 square kilometers that Russia occupied in eastern Ukraine... He explained that Kyiv received much support from Western countries and succeeded in our counter-offensive in the east... Al-Balad, Sunday, September 18, 2022."
The question is: Is Russia truly weak from a military standpoint? Or has the supply of Western weapons increased significantly? Will the partial mobilization of reserve soldiers in Russia turn the tide? Furthermore, what is the significance of Russia's annexation of the four Ukrainian regions even though Ukraine reclaimed Lyman, which is part of them, the next day? Can Russia withdraw from the annexation?
Answer:
To clarify these emerging facts and understand their dimensions and implications, it must first be emphasized that major wars are the fastest and most certain ways to change the actual balance of power; this has been the case throughout history. By following the developments of the war in Ukraine, the following becomes clear:
Russia did not ignite the war in Ukraine merely to defend Russian speakers in the Donbas region, although it used that as a pretext. Rather, it ignited it to enhance Russia's international status. On the verge of starting the war, it demanded security guarantees from Europe, America, and NATO, which included not annexing Ukraine into NATO. These Russian goals, stemming from what the Russians consider Western injustice against Russia and an infringement on its international status as a first-rate nuclear power, were clear in all statements from Moscow prior to the war. This is also confirmed by Moscow's insistence that these guarantees be provided by America and the West in writing. Therefore—and this is very important—America, followed by Europe, dealt with the Russian war as a rebellion against the international order, not just territorial claims from Ukraine or defense of Russians in eastern Ukraine. This American and Western approach was completely different from 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula; it was at the level of dealing with a major power rebelling against the Western international system led solely by America.
Consequently, the American and European response against Russia was severe and unexpected by Russia, which is known for its political stupidity. America and Europe imposed the harshest sanctions in history, froze its funds abroad, and severed ties with Russia despite Europe's acute need for Russian oil and gas. Europe, especially Germany, began to rearm, and America, along with Europe, began providing heavy military support to Ukraine. Amidst the Russian war in Ukraine, America clearly and unambiguously demonstrated its leadership of the West after it had been questioned during the era of former President Trump, closing many gaps in its relations with its allies. Because the reality of the Russian power pushing Moscow forward was not as clear at the beginning of the war as it is today, more than half a year after entering Ukraine, America began providing military aid to Ukraine gradually. It monitored Moscow's reaction, and as time passed, Russian red lines began to fall one after another. Subsequently, America and its allies began to disregard Russia's red lines and then exceed them without Russia being able to deter them. Overcoming these lines was represented by providing and increasing military aid to Ukraine in quantity and quality, from defensive to offensive. Thus, after America discouraged Ukraine from attacking Russia in Crimea, it began to encourage it.
With its strategic stupidity, Russia recklessly rushed to occupy Ukrainian territories. Driven by a sense of superiority over Ukraine, it pushed deep toward the capital, Kyiv, failed to occupy it, and retreated to the Donbas. However, this retreat revealed a significant weakness in the Russian army. Russia did not showcase its aircraft or control the airspace in Ukraine, nor could it provide logistical support for its advancing forces. It was surprised by the scale of Ukrainian resistance, contrary to its intelligence expectations. Thus, a serious military weakness in the Russian army was exposed, creating great hopes in Washington for its defeat in Ukraine. It became clear that President Putin’s talk about Russian power did not match the weak field performance of his army. In light of this weakness revealed on the ground, foreign embassies returned to Kyiv after being closed, and Western officials began visiting the Ukrainian capital in succession.
America then began announcing the goals of its military aid to Ukraine, which had a thunderous impact in Moscow. America gathered field intelligence via satellites for Ukraine and provided military advice, to the extent that the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff stated he contacts his Ukrainian counterpart seven times a week (Al-Jazeera, September 2022). By all standards, this means America considers the war in Ukraine its own war but without direct participation. Indeed, America announces additional military aid to Ukraine worth billions of dollars on a weekly basis. This means America is determined to defeat Russia in Ukraine and remove it from the list of major powers—something Russia has begun to realize, but too late!
Another indicator of Russia's strategic weakness is that it continued to supply oil and gas to Europe during six months of war, even though Europe openly announced it was certainly moving toward abandoning Russian oil and gas imports. In other words, Russia did not take the initiative to cut oil and gas to countries that declare hostility toward it day and night. This indicates Moscow's desperate need for money despite its boasting that its economy was not affected by Western sanctions and that the ruble is standing firm! While Russia completely cut off the Nord Stream 1 gas line in early September 2022 before the explosions, this came very late, and it continued to declare itself a reliable energy supplier. Furthermore, other gas supply lines to Europe, such as the Yamal line crossing Poland, the Progress and Soyuz lines crossing Ukraine, and the TurkStream line crossing Turkey, are still operating and feeding Europe with gas—with the exception of those branches cut by Poland and Ukraine, not Russia. Russia's need for money has caused it to lose its dignity on the international stage, which contradicts its efforts before the war to enhance its international status!
Furthermore, Russia was surprised by recent Chinese positions that appeared during the Samarkand summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) leaders held in mid-September 2022, shortly after Russia's defeats in Kharkiv. These positions were revealed by the Russian President himself when he expressed his understanding of China's "concerns and anxiety" about the war in Ukraine. "Putin said—in the first meeting with his Chinese counterpart since the start of the Russian war in Ukraine—that Russia appreciates China's 'balanced' position on the Ukrainian crisis" (Al-Jazeera Net, September 15, 2022). Thus, it became clear to Russia that China, which signed a "limitless" cooperation agreement with it before the war, had adopted a "balanced" position—meaning it is neither with Russia nor with Ukraine and the West. Indeed, China refrained from even mentioning the name "Ukraine" in its joint statements with Russia at the Shanghai summit and in its president's statements, only hinting at it. No sane person doubts that America is demonstrating to China the danger of providing any support to Russia in its war in Ukraine, which China is undoubtedly responding to out of fear for its international trade. Therefore, it did not support Russia against the Security Council resolution denouncing the annexation of the four regions in Ukraine. France 24 published on October 1, 2022: "Russia used its veto on Friday to block the adoption of a draft resolution in the UN Security Council condemning its annexation of four Ukrainian regions... The draft resolution prepared by the United States and Albania was supported by ten member states, while four countries abstained: China, India, Brazil, and Gabon."
In light of all that has been mentioned, the Russian attack on Ukraine, which failed to make Ukraine surrender to Russia's terms, reveals a serious military weakness for Russia and significant, qualitative military support from America and the West for Ukraine—some declared and some hidden. Because Russia has seen these new facts which it did not expect before the war, Lavrov reminded on September 12, 2022, that Russia does not reject negotiations with Ukraine (Al-Jazeera, September 12, 2022). However, he realizes that the Russian surrender terms placed on Ukraine's table in the early days of the war have evaporated. There is no hope of restoring those Russian terms except by Russia using nuclear weapons, which is perhaps its absolute last card. But it also knows that using nuclear weapons will draw America into the war in one way or another. Russia is unable to achieve victory in its war against the Ukrainian army, which receives American aid; how then can it achieve it if the US military participates in the war? Therefore, after the Ukrainian attack, Russia is in a state of total predicament.
Russia realized all these risks, and its president demonstrated his rejection of defeat, as "Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the partial mobilization of the army, pointing to his country being subjected to nuclear threats" (Al-Jazeera Net, September 21, 2022). Additionally, "representatives of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions supported by Russia announced their intention to organize referendums to join Russia from September 23 to 27... (Anadolu Agency, September 21, 2022)." Indeed, the referendum took place and the annexation happened. Al-Jazeera Net published on September 30, 2022: "Russian President Putin announced that the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson have become Russian, while in a long speech he denounced what he called Western control over the world order, while Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed his country had taken a 'decisive step' in response to the Russian measure." Nevertheless, the Ukrainian army continued military operations within these four regions. France 24 reported on October 1, 2022: "A spokesperson for the Ukrainian army announced the entry of his forces into the town of Lyman in the east of the country after surrounding Russian forces... while Russia confirmed that thousands had withdrawn from the town amidst continued fighting... The Ukrainian Defense Ministry wrote on Twitter: 'Ukrainian Air Assault Forces are entering Lyman in the Donetsk region,' and shortly before that, the Ukrainian army said it was surrounding thousands of Russian soldiers in this town."
Examining these Russian positions after all that has happened reveals the following:
a- As is the Russian mentality throughout history, Russia looks at territorial gains and wants to maintain them at any cost. Therefore, it conducts referendums in the areas it has controlled totally or partially to annex them to Russia and make it a fait accompli. This means Russia wants to say that these new regions (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson) have become Russian territories and that an attack on them is an attack on Russia, which may require defending them using nuclear weapons according to its "nuclear-military doctrine." That is, it wants to terrorize America and European countries about the danger of supporting the Ukrainian army in attacking "Russian territories" and to intimidate the Ukrainian army itself. All of this indicates the weakness of the Russian army and its resort to waving nuclear weapons after its inability to achieve victory in Ukraine, despite what resembles an international agreement prohibiting their use in wars.
b- The announcement of partial general mobilization to recruit 300,000 reservists—and a much larger number may be recruited—indirectly indicates the weakness of the Russian army and its inability to achieve Russia's goals in Ukraine. The weight of human losses it suffered made it in need of reserves. Yet, Russia still boasts that it is not fighting a war but a "special military operation."
It is likely that the war in Ukraine has entered an escalatory phase fraught with great danger. If Russia wants to restore its reputation, it will "scorch the earth" in Ukraine in the coming days, provided it has the capacity and will to do so. Many indicators point to its diminishing capacity and weakening will. Russia realized too late that it is, in one way or another, facing America and European countries on the Ukrainian stage. While European countries kept their door slightly ajar for Russia—unlike America, which turned its back on Russia—Europe's plans to abandon Russian oil by the end of this year and later gas make European countries more aggressive in confronting Russia. This is evident from the rising German tone against Russia and Germany's increased armament. Russia intended for the referendums to make its gains a fait accompli accepted by everyone, and it maintained ambiguity regarding the use of nuclear weapons to defend these areas. However, the West rejected these referendums and announced it would continue supporting Ukraine militarily, even providing more advanced air defense systems, further complicating the Russian dilemma.
Regarding mobilization, military experts suggest that calling up untrained reservists will not benefit the Russian army much. The issue of the Russian army's weakness is much deeper than being fixed by an increase in numbers; it is a problem of leadership and equipment that is not available in Russia today. Although Russia is operating its military and dual-production factories for the army at maximum capacity as if it were in a world war, this will not be decisive because America and European countries are also supplying Ukraine with what its army needs. If heavy losses for the Russian army continue, the Kremlin will face significant internal pressure to stop the war. This pressure will be compounded by the explosions of the Russian Nord Stream lines in the Baltic Sea and the resulting loss of European hope for cheap Russian natural gas. All this leaves Russia facing greater European hostility, represented by increased support for the Ukrainian army and the weakening of European voices calling for reconciliation with Russia. This is in addition to the retreating Chinese positions, increasing Russia's sense that it is alone in the arena against America and the West, meaning China has largely abandoned it. All of this provokes widespread internal criticism of the Kremlin leaders for their miscalculations, essentially blaming them for the new Russian predicament.
As for Russian nuclear threats, they firstly lack actual will, as Western intelligence has not observed any new movements of Russia's nuclear forces, increasing the West's belief that Putin's threats are closer to intimidation than actual use. Because America and European countries have not shown terror at Russia's nuclear weapons—despite saying they take these threats seriously, especially since the intended target is likely the Ukrainian arena and not the West itself—and because America announced it would respond to any Russian use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (even with conventional weapons to prevent a nuclear war between Russia and America), all of this may cost Russia the deterrent power of the last weapon it possesses and could bring disaster upon this weapon in post-war settlements.
As for Russia retracting its annexation, as mentioned in the question, this would mean erasing Russia from the international stage and ending its influence—a heavy matter for the Russian leadership. Therefore, it is expected that Russia will stand by these four regions, meaning at the borders of the provinces where it held annexation referendums, and perhaps slightly more by trying to reclaim areas lost in Kharkiv. Thus, the Russian President appears "strong" before his people, having brought new territorial gains to Russia after Crimea in 2014. If achieved, this would be a small goal for a state that appeared as a superpower threatening to swallow all of Ukraine in a short period. On the other hand, America and Western countries are encouraging Ukraine and supporting its army to liberate these occupied areas. Between increasing Western military support and Russia's mobilization of reservists, the battlefield in Ukraine will likely witness fierce battles and will last for a longer period. While the guarantee of Russia winning the war weakens except by using nuclear weapons, the war in Ukraine remains open to further international risks. While Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reminds that Russia does not reject negotiations, America, and especially Britain, show a determination to make Ukraine the arena where Russia is struck off the list of major powers. Amidst this clash of wills, the Ukrainian arena remains pregnant with surprises that could turn things upside down.
Finally, the major powers in today's world struggle among themselves to achieve their brutal ambitions without regard for any human or moral values. In their eyes, injustice turns into justice if it achieves what they want, even if it harms others, and even if it is pure evil. These countries have spread much corruption on the earth, and the world will not be set right until they vanish. Then the Khilafah (Caliphate) upon the method of Prophethood will return through the efforts of those who work and the help of the Lord of the Worlds:
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Mighty, the Merciful." (Quran, Ar-Rum 30:4-5)
6th Rabi’ al-Awwal 1444 AH
02/10/2022 CE