Answer to Question
Question:
My question is regarding the implications of downing the Russian plane: Will this result in an escalation of air force operations in the skies of Syria? And will this extend to the skies of Turkey? Thank you.
Answer:
1- Regarding the skies of Syria:
- If the intended meaning of escalation is that warplanes will roam the skies of Syria and bomb its land, including its people, trees, and stones, then this is already occurring, and the aircraft have spared no effort in doing so...
- If the intended meaning of escalation is that these aircraft will engage in combat with each other, entering into an aerial war together, this is unlikely, at least in the foreseeable future, for the reasons we mentioned in our publication on 11/10/2015 and the answer to the question on 18/11/2015.
2- Regarding the extension of the escalation to Turkish airspace, as if you mean an aerial war breaking out between Russia and Turkey, where Russian planes attack Turkish planes in response to the downing of the Russian plane... if this is what is meant, the answer is also that it is unlikely, at least in the foreseeable future, for the following reasons:
The Russian aerial intervention in Syria took place by agreement with America, and the current Turkish political regime is among the followers of America; hence, it cannot violate an agreement concluded by America...
The evidence of the agreement is visible to all, and we have clarified this in the aforementioned publication and the answer to the question... Here is Putin revealing this, saying in Sochi on Tuesday, November 24, describing the incident of downing the plane as a "stab in the back" (Radio Sawa, 24/11/2015). This means that an agreement was in place and was breached...
It is most likely that the downing of the plane took place without a decision from the Turkish political leadership, but rather from leaders in the army with political goals that differ from those of Erdogan, mixed with jealousy over what they see of Russian bombing of their Turkmen brothers on their borders... This is what appeared behind the lines, or rather in front of them, in the statement of the Turkish Prime Minister: "Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu explained, for his part, that the decision of the Turkish Armed Forces to down the Russian plane was motivated by the protection of the borders..." (Radio Sawa, 24/11/2015).
Russia likely realizes that the Turkish government did not break the agreement, as this is not the first time Russian aircraft have violated Turkey's borders without the Turkish government preventing them. Russia's realization that the downing of the plane was not a political decision by the government but rather by some army leaders makes it possible to absorb the matter and, consequently, rule out war between Russia and Turkey... What is expected is that matters will be settled through political means that save face for all parties, whether through trade or diplomatic relations, mediations, or Russia intensifying attacks in the areas where the plane was downed or similar actions as a form of retaliation... America may have a primary role in this, especially regarding the control of the army... In addition to finding exits in the interpretation of where and how the plane was downed to satisfy both parties, a US official said yesterday, 24/11/2015: "Washington believes that the plane was hit inside Syrian airspace after it briefly entered Turkish airspace, according to an assessment based on tracking the plane's heat signature." (Deutsche Welle, 25/11/2015). Thus, it satisfies both parties here!
As we mentioned in the answer "at least in the foreseeable future," meaning according to the visible data; otherwise, the overlap of military actions with political actions makes the possibility of fluctuations in events and their results not excluded...
Finally, what is painful is that although these are Islamic lands, the results and events in them are controlled by the disbelieving colonialists and their agents! Nevertheless, the days alternate, and it will not be long, by the will of Allah, until the light of the Khilafah illuminates the lands of Islam and even extends to the corners of the earth, and the enemies of Islam retreat to their own homes... if any home remains for them.
وَلَتَعْلَمُنَّ نَبَأَهُ بَعْدَ حِينٍ
"And you will surely know [the truth of] its information after a time." (Surah Sad [38]: 88)
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