Q&A
Biden's Visit to the Middle East and the Nuclear File
Question:
(US President Joe Biden left Washington "this Wednesday" for the Middle East on an official visit that includes "Israel", the West Bank, and Saudi Arabia... Al-Arabiya Net, 2022/07/13). Al-Youm Al-Sabea published on its website on 2022/7/10: (US President Joe Biden said he would travel to the Middle East next week to start a new and promising chapter for the American role in the region...). Asharq Al-Awsat published on its website on 2022/7/5: (US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said that Iran has repeatedly made demands in recent weeks and months outside the framework of the 2015 nuclear deal... and said that there is no other round of planned talks with Iran at the moment, according to Reuters news agency...). The question now is: Does this mean that America has turned its back on the nuclear deal? What is the goal of Biden's visit at this time? Is this visit related to the nuclear deal or other matters? And can Iran become a nuclear power? May Allah bless you and grant you victory...
Answer:
The question consists of two parts: the first regarding the nuclear deal with Iran, and the second regarding Biden’s visit. Here is the answer:
First: The Nuclear Deal:
The Iranian nuclear file, with its local, regional, and international dimensions, is an important part of American policy toward Iran. In fact, it overlaps with other issues to take on regional and international dimensions in American strategy. Therefore, you see America—since signing the agreement in 2015, withdrawing from it in 2018, and the negotiations to return to it as is happening today—shifting right and left regarding it according to new developments in its policy. By closely examining the United States' strategic vision for the Iranian nuclear program, we find that American policy is closer to managing this file than to solving it! This American vision for the nuclear file is inseparable from the American regional strategy in the Islamic region and internationally.
The objective fact that must be acknowledged is that Iran, in most of its foreign policies, coordinates behind the scenes with America and does not deviate from American policy. Perhaps the American occupation of Iraq in 2003 revealed this coordination significantly, as American and Iranian influence moved side by side in Iraq. Furthermore, the international coalition led by America against the ISIS organization, which intervened in Syria, did not strike any Iranian targets in Syria or its militias. America left them to fight the revolution in Ash-Sham to eradicate it, while American planes struck the revolutionaries in Ash-Sham under the pretext of "terrorism." This only happens between countries that agree on their roles; both the American and Iranian roles aimed to preserve America’s agent, Bashar. Moreover, the American occupation of Afghanistan also revealed American-Iranian coordination, and some Iranian statements highlighted Iran's favor to America in facilitating its occupation of Afghanistan!
After the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988 and the emergence of Iraq as a major military power, Iran began in 1989 to build its missile and nuclear program to cover for what resembled its loss in the war with Iraq. America had officially assisted Iran in nuclear research since the 1950s, and that research stopped after Khomeini’s revolution but was relaunched in 1989. With the American military destroying Iraqi power in 1990-1991, its expulsion from Kuwait, and the imposition of sanctions and inspection campaigns on Iraq, the regional arena was cleared to highlight Iranian power. Post-Cold War American policy was searching for an imaginary enemy to justify the American presence in military bases across the world after the fall of the Soviet Union, and Iran was the excuse and pretext. America began justifying many of its policies by the "Iranian threat," to the extent that Russia was greatly surprised by America's pretext of installing the US missile shield in Poland and Romania due to Iranian missile threats!
Thus, the Iranian nuclear program and Iran's haste to install thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges began to sound the alarm in major European countries and the Gulf states. Upon scrutiny, we find that all of this was necessary for American policy in several respects:
- a- Creating an Iranian threat to the Gulf states, where the oil sources are, to enable America to offer protection to the rulers. President Trump used to boast that America provides protection to Saudi Arabia and demanded they pay money in the manner of extortion and the mafia, saying they would not last two weeks without American protection.
- b- On the international level, America began imposing more of a strategic siege on Russia and installing its missile shield near Russia's borders, all under pretexts including protecting European countries from Iranian missiles.
With growing European fears, international powers since 2006 began negotiating with Iran in the hope of controlling its nuclear program within a peaceful rather than military framework. The 5+1 group was established for this purpose—meaning the five international nuclear powers + Germany. Although America was one of those international powers, those nuclear negotiations with Iran were conducted by the international powers without direct American participation. This means that those negotiations, which lasted 9 years (until 2015), were not taken seriously by America to restrict the Iranian nuclear program. European countries, along with Russia and China, held session after session in a vicious cycle of negotiations—negotiations that also helped highlight Iranian power and show its dangers.
Furthermore, the internal division in America has strongly affected the Iranian nuclear program. The period of the Trump administration was the time when American division reached a dangerous level. President Trump attacked his predecessor Obama's policy regarding Iran's nuclear program. In addition to withdrawing from the nuclear deal in 2018, he announced "maximum pressure" sanctions against Iran and opened the way for the Jewish entity to further undermine Iran. Because he acted with "cowboy" arrogance, he humiliated Iran by killing Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force in its Revolutionary Guard, in early January 2020. Because the Trump administration was in total harmony with the Jewish entity led by Netanyahu, unlike the Democratic Obama administration, the Jewish entity began to go further in striking Iranian targets, whether they were direct nuclear targets like sabotaging the "Natanz" plant or indirect ones like the Jewish entity stealing sensitive nuclear documents from Iran, in addition to multiple assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and experts...
At this point, the Democrats in America, while out of power, began contacting pillars of the Iranian regime, especially the Foreign Minister at the time, Javad Zarif, promising them that a Democratic Party victory in the 2020 presidential elections would mean a return to the nuclear deal. This was a public promise by the Democratic candidate Biden before he became president. Thus, Biden committed himself to returning to the nuclear deal with Iran for motives related to the internal division in America. Indeed, America returned to nuclear negotiations with Iran shortly after President Biden took office in early 2021, but the negotiations are still stalled. This is because America's return to the nuclear deal with Iran is no longer a requirement of American strategy; rather, it requires highlighting Iranian threats anew. Furthermore, Republican members of Congress demanded that any new agreement with Iran be put to a vote in Congress and threatened to withdraw from it again when they gain the majority in Congress. This disrupted the negotiation process, and a year and a half has passed without the Biden administration being able to return to the nuclear deal with Iran.
Then the war in Ukraine cast its shadow over the issue of the nuclear deal. The Biden administration took it upon itself to guarantee oil supplies to Europe as an alternative to Russian supplies. This is one of the requirements of American leadership of the West within the NATO alliance. The Biden administration began considering the necessity of lifting sanctions on Iran and pushing its oil trade to the international market, as well as with Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. Regarding Iran, an American push emerged to hasten the conclusion of the nuclear deal in March 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration was ready to respond to Iran's demand to remove its Revolutionary Guard from the terrorism list where former President Trump had placed it. Thus, America's return to the deal was very close as a result of new developments in American policy after the Ukraine war. However, when Russia, which is part of the 5+1 group, began conditioning that its trade relations with Iran be exempted from Western sanctions on Russia, America backed away from signing the deal. It is expected that if Russia remains firm on its conditions, the nuclear deal issue will continue to slow down during the coming months until the end of the US Congressional midterm elections in November 2022... It is noticeable that Biden is now focusing more on the midterm elections than on the nuclear deal with Iran...
Second: Biden's Visit to the Region:
Whoever contemplates Biden's visit to the region sees that it is a prelude to the midterm elections to raise the standing of Biden and his party in these elections, even if it is outwardly cloaked in other goals! Biden is in an internal crisis with the Republican Party, especially in two striking matters: First, the Republican Party’s exploitation of Biden’s increasing interest in the nuclear deal with Iran without pressure and further sanctions as Trump did. Second, Biden’s lack of interest in increasing and strengthening relations with the Jewish entity as Trump did. Since these two matters affect the Congressional midterm elections, Biden has tried to address them during these remaining months before the November 2022 midterm elections:
The remedy for the first matter was Biden introducing this visit with the statement of US State Department spokesperson Ned Price, reported by Asharq Al-Awsat on 2022/7/5 (...that there is no other round of planned talks with Iran at the moment...). This is in addition to Biden’s ambiguous statements about the deal, leading to the end of the rounds of the nuclear deal or a slowdown in them until after the midterm elections to prevent the Republican Party from exploiting it against Biden and his party...
Then he addressed the second matter by announcing unprecedented support for the Jewish entity by passing the largest support package for Tel Aviv in history, estimated at more than $4 billion... This is in addition to accelerating normalisation with the state of the Jews. All of this is to ensure the influence of the Jewish lobby's votes in the midterm elections in his favor, outbidding Trump and his party in supporting the Jewish entity... Therefore, the timing of Biden's visit to the region, especially to the Jewish entity in this month of July 2022, and showing support for them, earns Biden an electoral card from that lobby... This is in addition to increasing his popularity by showing the support of his agents and followers in the region! Especially the issue of energy from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, which raises his electoral standing. This has been confirmed by the following:
a- [The White House said that US President Joe Biden wishes to use his visit to the Middle East—which begins Wednesday—to strengthen the American role in a region gaining increasing strategic importance. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan outlined—in a press conference at the White House on Monday—the goals of this visit, Biden's first of his presidency, which includes Israel and Palestine then Saudi Arabia, where he will meet with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq. Regarding the normalisation file, Sullivan pointed to the US administration’s desire to strengthen what he called the path of improving the relationship between Israel and more Arab countries, saying that any normalisation is considered positive. Biden had called on the Gulf states to increase oil production, in light of high prices above the $100 per barrel level; this has contributed to high inflation rates, amid global concerns about energy and food security with the continuation of the Russian war on Ukraine. Al Jazeera, 2022/7/11]
b- Al Jazeera published on its website on 2022/7/10 from a Washington Post article: [...US President Joe Biden said he would travel to the Middle East next week to start a new and promising chapter for the American role in the region... In the article published by the Washington Post, the US president said that the meeting of regional leaders in the city of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, would be an indicator of the possibility of a more stable Middle East, as he put it... noting that he would be the first American president to fly from Israel to Jeddah... Regarding relations with Israel, Biden pointed out that his administration had passed the largest support package for Tel Aviv in history, estimated at more than $4 billion...].
c- Asharq Al-Awsat published on its website on 2022/7/5: [Washington: Asharq Al-Awsat Online - US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said today (Tuesday) that Iran has repeatedly made demands in recent weeks and months outside the framework of the 2015 nuclear deal, adding that the new demands indicate a lack of seriousness on Tehran's part. Indirect talks between Tehran and Washington ended in Doha last week, aimed at breaking the deadlock on how to save the nuclear deal, without achieving the hoped-for progress. Price said there is no other round of planned talks with Iran at the moment, according to Reuters news agency.]
d- It was stated in Al-Youm Al-Sabea on 2022/5/5: [Several challenges face US President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party as the Congressional midterm elections approach, which come after successive crises that rocked the US administration, which failed for nearly 3 months to dissuade Russia from continuing its war inside Ukrainian territory, despite the series of successive economic sanctions it imposed against Moscow, and the accompanying global effects on inflation indicators and the stumbling of energy supplies, which prompted the US Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate by 0.5% in the largest increase in the past 22 years. According to analysts and American media, the midterm elections are considered a referendum on Biden's presidency in his first two years in power...]
Thus, the primary goal of Biden's visit to the region at this particular time, just before the midterm elections, is as we mentioned at the beginning: (Whoever contemplates Biden's visit to the region sees that it is a prelude to the midterm elections to raise the standing of Biden and his party in these elections, even if it is outwardly cloaked in other goals!)
Third: In conclusion, we emphasize two matters:
These so-called great states are permeated by fragility that sometimes reaches hot conflict between their parties and components... But, and this is what is painful, they find the solutions to their problems in our countries and at our expense! So Biden visits our countries, starting with those most hostile to us, the Jewish entity established on the occupation of our blessed land Palestine, and then moves directly to the land of Hijaz where its rulers receive him submissively and cheeringly. Biden boasts (pointing out that he will be the first American president to travel from "Israel" to Jeddah... and providing the state of the Jews with the largest support package in history...) and yet the rulers of the House of Saud do not feel ashamed—in fact, they have lost even the sense of shame! Biden then meets the rulers of the Gulf states to discuss increasing energy production to alleviate inflation in America, then meets with this group along with the rulers of the Egyptian, Iraqi, and Jordanian regimes and the Authority to discuss the normalisation file, saying (that any normalisation is considered positive)... This is how Biden wants them to have normalisation instead of Jihad to remove the Jewish entity! Then those rulers applaud Biden without fear of Allah, His Messenger, and the believers! Instead of America and the Jewish entity being:
هُمُ الْعَدُوُّ فَاحْذَرْهُمْ قَاتَلَهُمُ اللَّهُ أَنَّى يُؤْفَكُونَ
"They are the enemy, so beware of them. May Allah destroy them; how are they deluded?" (TMQ Surah Al-Munafiqun 63:4)
The rulers normalise with them, and to them they bow!
As for what came at the end of the question (whether Iran can become a nuclear power), yes, it could be if it did not coordinate its foreign policy, as explained, with America, and thus become a power of consequence... But Iran's linking of itself to American policy to revolve in its orbit prevents it from being so. It continues to be so because its ruling elite has become accustomed to being linked to American policy and does not detach from it in any way. Instead of controlling the nuclear deal itself, it linked that to the Vienna talks, meaning with America's approval: ("If an agreement is reached in Vienna tomorrow, all the measures taken by Iran are technically reversible," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh said at a press conference. Independent Arabia, 2022/6/13). Therefore, a fundamental change in Iran is unlikely unless Iran makes Islam the judge in its internal and foreign policy and cuts its relationship with America an irreversible cut... We say this while we consider it unlikely to happen from the current Iranian politicians, but:
مَعْذِرَةً إِلَى رَبِّكُمْ وَلَعَلَّهُمْ يَتَّقُونَ
"To be free from guilt before your Lord and perhaps they may fear Him." (TMQ Surah Al-A'raf 7:164)
15th of Dhu al-Hijjah 1443 AH 2022/07/14 CE