Answer to a Question
Blinken's Visit to China
Question:
The China Global Television Network (CGTN) reported on 30/06/2023: "The Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized the United States for making irresponsible remarks regarding bilateral relations. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an earlier interview that Washington would continue to defend its own interests and would continue to take actions and make statements that China does not like, regardless of the differences between the two sides. The Chinese Foreign Ministry objected to these statements..." It is noted that Al-Arabiya had published a week prior on 23/06/2023: "One of the expectations from Blinken's visit is that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will pay an official visit to China soon. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and John Kerry, Biden's climate envoy, may also visit... It is also possible that President Xi will visit San Francisco next November to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting, where he may meet with Biden."
It was expected that relations between China and the United States after Blinken's visit to China on June 18-19, 2023, would be characterized by de-escalation, rather than the return of tension! Was Blinken's visit to China unproductive, or was it merely ceremonial? My apologies for the long question... May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
To clarify the answer, we review the following points:
First: The background of the situation regarding Blinken's visit to China:
The status of relations between America and China has been somewhat tense, at least since the trade war launched by former US President Donald Trump. The US government imposed various restrictions on Chinese trade and products, levied high tariffs on certain Chinese goods, and imposed sanctions on Chinese companies such as Huawei and its executives. The Biden administration has not rescinded this policy. The Chinese government responded with a similar policy. This alone is sufficient to create tension in the relations between the two countries.
The Chinese have long worked toward becoming independent in the field of technology under the China 2025 plan. This was exacerbated by how the Americans dealt with Huawei and other Chinese companies, creating tension that led China to plan for building its own silicon chips. American analysts expect that China will achieve independence in the chip industry within five to seven years... All of this generates a competition closer to a collision between the two countries.
On the military and security level, in February last year, what was suspected to be a Chinese spy balloon flew in US airspace. Although China denied this, it caused the cancellation of Blinken's visit to Beijing, which was planned for last February... Then there were maneuvers by Chinese warships in the Taiwan Strait, and America responded with a maneuver by an American destroyer in the Taiwan Strait last month, considering the South China Sea to be free international waters... In the last month, a Chinese warplane approached American planes, and thus the atmosphere between the two countries became tense... Thus, Blinken's visit did not take place at that time...
America has concluded various military and security agreements to harass China. The Biden administration has taken a series of policies in these directions, including initiatives aimed at countering China militarily, notably the AUKUS agreement with Australia and the United Kingdom, and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with Australia, India, and Japan. This is in addition to attempts to expand NATO's role in Asia. America also concluded a treaty with the Philippines to use five additional military bases, bringing the total to nine bases in the Philippines, among other measures.
Second: As for Blinken's visit to China, it was not ceremonial; rather, it had objectives:
Attempting to ease the tension resulting from the aforementioned matters. A statement from the US State Department was issued explaining that the goal of this visit was to reopen the channel of communication between the two countries to create understanding, establish a communication channel between the militaries, and open the way for more cooperation and strengthening it between the two countries... It is also clear from the statement that Blinken's visit achieved some goals but failed to establish military-to-military contact...
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper reported on June 19, 2023: "Despite the positive language used by the Chinese leader, expressing his satisfaction after a 35-minute meeting with Blinken, the latter clarified that Beijing refused to reopen military channels with Washington, noting that this issue is a priority for President Joe Biden's administration, and it was one of the main goals of this visit. Nevertheless, the meeting held in the Great Hall of the People was a signal that the two countries do not want their relations to reach open hostility, and that they realize their competition and diplomatic efforts involve enormous risks."
The newspaper added: "After two days of meetings with senior Chinese officials, Blinken said the United States set specific goals for the trip and achieved them, noting that he raised the subject of military communications 'repeatedly.' He added, 'It is absolutely essential that we have these kinds of communications (...) This is something we will continue to work on,' in an effort that began since 2021 when China rejected more than ten requests from the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) to conduct high-level dialogues with the Chinese side. However, Blinken described his previous discussions with senior Chinese officials as 'candid and constructive'" (Asharq Al-Awsat, 19/06/2023).
Thus, one of the main unresolved issues was the restoration of military communications between the United States and China. Communications between senior military officials between the two countries remain frozen, and two recent incidents raised fears that the fraught relationship could turn into a conflict. China recently rejected a meeting between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Secretary Li Shangfu in Singapore. Blinken said that although he raised the need for such channels "repeatedly" in his meetings, "there was no immediate progress." He added, "At this moment, China has not agreed to move forward with that. I think this is an issue we must continue to work on." He said, "It is very important that we restore those channels" (CNN, 19/06/2023).
There is no doubt that Blinken's visit achieved some progress. But as Blinken said, progress was not easy. Blinken said before leaving China: "The relationship was at a point of instability, and both sides recognized the need to work to stabilize it." He added, "But progress is hard. It takes time. And it’s not the product of one visit, one trip, one conversation. My hope and expectation is: we will have better communications, better engagement going forward..." He added, "US officials were playing down the possibility of a major breakthrough, but they hope that Blinken's visit will pave the way for more bilateral meetings, including possible trips by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo." It was hoped that this would pave the way for a summit between Xi Jinping and Biden later this year" (Reuters, 20/06/2023).
As for the topic of the war in Ukraine, Al Jazeera Net reported: "Blinken welcomed China's suggestions for establishing a lasting peace in Ukraine, and said that China confirmed it would not provide any support to Russia in its war on Ukraine, noting however his fear 'of the involvement of Chinese companies in that'..." (Al Jazeera Net, 19/06/2023). Blinken said, "China has assured the United States and other countries that it will not provide lethal assistance to Russia and 'we have not seen any evidence to contradict that,' although he noted that China's assurances are consistent with repeated statements made in recent weeks" (CNN, 19/06/2023).
On the subject of Taiwan, Asharq Al-Awsat reported that the Chinese minister "reiterated his country's position on the Taiwan file, and regarding what Beijing considers a continuous rapprochement in recent years between Washington and the Taiwanese authorities emanating from a party pro-independence for this island. Qin Gang said, according to what his ministry reported: 'The Taiwan issue is at the heart of China's core interests, the most important issue in Sino-US relations, and the greatest risk.' He stressed that 'China urges the United States to respect the One China principle'; i.e., not establishing official relations with Taiwan, 'and respect its commitment not to support Taiwanese separatists.' For his part, China's top foreign affairs official, Wang Yi, confirmed to the US Secretary of State that his country would not provide 'any concessions' regarding Taiwan" (Asharq Al-Awsat, 19/06/2023). For his part, Blinken said: "His country does not support Taiwan's independence, and expects a peaceful solution to the issue, noting that their agreement with China 'is based on adopting a peaceful solution regarding any differences related to Taiwan, and we support One China'" (Al Jazeera Net, 19/06/2023). The BBC website quoted Blinken as saying: "There is growing concern about China's 'provocative actions' in the Taiwan Strait, but he repeats that the United States does not support Taiwan's independence. He says that if there is a crisis over Taiwan, it is likely 'to lead to an economic crisis that could affect the entire world.' He explained that 50% of commercial container traffic passes through the Taiwan Strait every day, and 70% of semiconductor exports are made in Taiwan" (BBC, 19/06/2023).
Third: From all of this, the following becomes clear:
There is no change in the American position towards Taiwan... The United States has not recognized Taiwan's independence (noting that there are about 15 countries that officially recognize Taiwan's independence, including the Vatican). Although the United States has not decided to officially recognize Taiwan's independence, it treats Taiwan as an independent state, evidenced by the existence of an American office in Taipei that functions as an American embassy. America has concluded defense agreements with Taiwan and provides it with types of advanced weapons, among other forms of aid. America declares it will defend Taiwan in the event of a military attack on it from China. Biden confirmed this in May of last year, as US President Joe Biden warned that "China is playing with fire on the issue of Taiwan and pledged to intervene militarily to protect the island if it is attacked" (BBC, 23/05/2022).
This visit and its "results" are not sufficient to calm the atmosphere between the two countries, but they may be a temporary opening for the door of de-escalation and a prelude to other visits... As mentioned in the question, one of the expectations of Blinken's visit is "that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will pay an official visit to China soon. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and John Kerry (Biden's climate envoy) may also visit, given that both are responsible for issues that link China and the United States in common interests for cooperation. It is also possible that President Xi will visit 'San Francisco' next November to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting, where he may meet with Biden." However, this does not mean that the door of tension between the two countries has been closed and a new door of permanent de-escalation has opened; this is unlikely because their interests differ...
America's allies around China, such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, then the issue of Taiwan... all of this will prevent the door of tension from closing; rather, it will remain "ajar" to be opened again according to the interests of the two countries...
- But one of the important goals of this visit that was not achieved is that America wanted to open a channel of communication between the Chinese and American militaries, for purposes akin to espionage! It is as if China realized this and categorically rejected these channels, which angered Blinken, even if he did not show it explicitly, but it shone through in his words and statements as we explained above. I recall them here:
"Despite the positive language used by the Chinese leader, expressing his satisfaction after a 35-minute meeting with Blinken, the latter clarified that Beijing refused to reopen military channels with Washington, noting that this issue is a priority for President Joe Biden's administration, and it was one of the main goals of this visit."
"After two days of meetings with senior Chinese officials, Blinken said the United States set specific goals for the trip and achieved them, noting that he raised the subject of military communications 'repeatedly.' He added, 'It is absolutely essential that we have these kinds of communications (...) This is something we will continue to work on.'"
"Two recent incidents raised fears that the fraught relationship could turn into a conflict. China recently rejected a meeting between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Secretary Li Shangfu in Singapore... Blinken said that although he raised the need for such channels 'repeatedly' in his meetings, 'there was no immediate progress.' He added, 'At this moment, China has not agreed to move forward with that. I think this is an issue we must continue to work on.' He said, 'It is very important that we restore those channels'."
- Perhaps these positions from China remained stuck in Blinken's mind because he could not achieve the military communications, hence his recent statements mentioned in the question... as well as those reported by the Saba website on 29/06/2023: "The Xinhua News Agency quoted Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning, in response to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's statements, saying: 'It is no secret that there are differences between the United States and China'.. She added: 'What the United States said and did violates the basic rules governing international relations'.. emphasizing her country's opposition to this matter.." And the Almighty, the All-Mighty, spoke the truth:
وَكَذَلِكَ نُوَلِّي بَعْضَ الظَّالِمِينَ بَعْضاً بِمَا كَانُوا يَكْسِبُونَ
"And thus will We make some of the wrongdoers allies of others for what they used to earn." (QS. Al-An'am [6]: 129)
وَالْكَافِرُونَ هُمُ الظَّالِمُونَ
"And the disbelievers - they are the wrongdoers." (QS. Al-Baqarah [2]: 254)
15th of Dhu al-Hijjah 1444 AH 03/07/2023 CE