Question:
A reconciliation agreement was signed between Eritrea and Ethiopia in Asmara in July 2018. The official spokesperson for the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry, Meles, confirmed that the recently signed Asmara agreement with Eritrea was the result of a mutual desire from both countries without mediation from any third party. How true is this statement? Was it free from international and regional influences? Furthermore, the Asmara agreement referred to the Algiers Agreement of 18/06/2000 as if it were complementary to it; why the wait for about 18 years to confirm this agreement? May Allah reward you with goodness.
Answer:
The statement by the official spokesperson for the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry, Meles, that the Asmara agreement was a result of the "mutual desire" of the two countries is a form of deception and misdirection! Tracing the course of what happened and reflecting upon it reveals that America is behind what took place and is taking place to achieve its interests and concentrate its influence in the face of European and Chinese movements in Africa. This is explained as follows:
First: The Course of the Asmara Agreement:
The agreement was concluded on 09/07/2018 CE, and then Ethiopia and Eritrea announced the end of the state of war between them following what was called a "historic" meeting between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in Asmara... Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebre Meskel announced on Twitter a ("joint statement of peace and friendship signed between the two parties, and that the state of war that existed between the two countries has ended. A new era of peace and friendship has begun. The two countries will work together to encourage close cooperation in the political, economic, social, cultural, and security fields"... Agence France-Presse, 09/07/2018)... To understand who is behind the agreement, we will mention the notable events before and after it:
1- Events prior to the agreement:
a- U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Donald Yamamoto arrived in Addis Ababa on Thursday, 26/04/2018, (...on an official three-day visit, during which he met Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and the Foreign Minister. The visit comes as part of a tour Yamamoto began on the 22nd of this month, which included Eritrea and Djibouti, and concluded in Ethiopia... 27/04/2018 Anadolu Agency).
b- Abiy Ahmed made his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia on 17/05/2018 at the official invitation of King Salman bin Abdulaziz.
c- Among the first to visit Abiy Ahmed was the Saudi Crown Prince Ibn Salman on 07/06/2018. The Ethiopian News Agency, quoting the Prime Minister's office, stated that Abiy Ahmed ("praised the development of relations with Saudi Arabia, saying that thanks to Mohammed bin Salman, bilateral relations between the two countries have developed and become stronger and closer than ever before, and that the Saudi Crown Prince pledged to support the efforts made by Addis Ababa to accelerate development and encourage Saudi investors to invest in Ethiopia...").
d- The U.S. State Department said in a statement issued on 21/06/2018: ("The United States is encouraged by the progress Ethiopia and Eritrea have made recently toward resolving their long-standing differences. Isaias Afwerki and Abiy Ahmed have shown courageous leadership by taking these steps toward peace. The United States looks forward to a full normalization of relations and the realization of our shared aspirations for both countries to enjoy lasting peace and development"... Reuters, 21/06/2018).
e- In an interview with Addis Standard, Ambassador Mike Raynor to Ethiopia said: ("Well, we have told both parties, publicly, and we continue to say that we are ready to play this role. Back on the day of the Algiers Agreement, the United States was an official guarantor. We had a structural role established at the point that was agreed upon. We encouraged this outcome at some point with both governments, so we said, 'If you cooperatively feel there is a role the United States can play constructively, we will do everything we can to support that... I think we played a constructive role. As I said, we have had relations with both countries for several months to encourage this outcome.'"... 02/07/2018 Addis Standard)
All this shows that the conclusion of the agreement was prepared by America and its followers among the rulers in Saudi Arabia, as seen by tracing the events leading up to its conclusion.
2- Events after the agreement was concluded:
a- The United States announced its support for the peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia after years of conflict. This came in a statement by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Pompeo said: ("The United States welcomes the commitment to peace and security signed yesterday, Monday, between the states of Eritrea and Ethiopia, which effectively puts an end to 20 years of conflict." He stressed that "the normalization of relations and the adoption of the joint declaration of peace and friendship between Eritrea and Ethiopia will provide their peoples with the opportunity to focus on shared aspirations for closer political, economic, social, and cultural ties..." 10/07/2018 Haberler)
b- Isaias Afwerki visited Saudi Arabia on 23/07/2018 after the Asmara agreement on 09/07/2018, where he and King Salman reviewed ("the latest developments on the regional scene..." Likewise, Adel al-Jubeir discussed with his Eritrean counterpart during his meeting with him "bilateral relations between the two countries and issues of common interest"... Asharq Al-Awsat, 24/07/2018).
c- More than two months after the Asmara declaration, (under the sponsorship of Saudi King Salman, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali signed the Jeddah Peace Agreement between the two countries on Sunday, 16/09/2018, in the presence of the Saudi Crown Prince... Sky News Arabia, 16/09/2018).
Therefore, from the sequence of events above, it is clear that America and its agents were the drivers of events prior to the Asmara agreement by preparing the atmosphere for it, as well as by providing clear support for it after its conclusion.
Second: The Reality of Rule in Ethiopia and Eritrea:
1- Regarding Ethiopia:
a- Abyssinia fell under Italian occupation in 1935. Its Emperor Haile Selassie Maryam fled through Kenya to Egypt—both under British colonialism at that time—then went to Britain and stayed there until Britain returned him in 1941 after the Allies expelled Italy from Abyssinia during World War II. Haile Selassie was reinstated as Emperor, and Abyssinia came under British influence... At that time, Britain also occupied neighboring Eritrea, which had been under Italian rule since the nineteenth century. In 1950, Eritrea was annexed to Ethiopia under the rule of Haile Selassie. British influence continued in Ethiopia, including Eritrea, until 1974 when a military coup against the Emperor was carried out by leftist officers. Among them, Officer Mengistu Haile Mariam emerged and dominated power from 1977 after a struggle between these officers, remaining in power until 1991. Most coup movements in those days adopted slogans of revolution, liberation, socialism, and the like... Such were the slogans of Mengistu’s coup, even though America was behind it to strike at British colonial influence... Among his foreign actions for the benefit of America was supporting the rebellion movement in Southern Sudan led by John Garang, who was linked to America. Ethiopian support for this movement continued until the South was separated from Sudan with the complicity of the Bashir government in Sudan...
b- However, Mengistu became known for his bloodiness, so America feared that the people would revolt and Britain would return. Thus, America overthrew him and brought in Meles Zenawi, who belonged to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a Christian tribe making up 5% of Ethiopia's population. It allied with other nationalist fronts, including the Oromo Liberation Front. One of the most important tasks Zenawi performed for America was his intervention in Somalia in 2006. America instructed him to fight Islamic movements and topple the rule of the Islamic Courts Union in Somalia. The Ethiopian army is still present in Somalia to secure stability for American influence.
c- After Zenawi's death in 2012, he was succeeded by Hailemariam Desalegn, who belonged to the same tribe. However, disturbances occurred, and a state of emergency was imposed the following year. Events erupted in October 2015 following the government's decision to expand the capital, Addis Ababa, and subsequently confiscate adjacent agricultural lands. Those lands were within the property of the Oromo tribe, who represent 40% of the population, followed by the Amhara at 20%. A year later, in 2016, the government rushed to declare a state of emergency. More than 29,000 people were arrested and more than 500 were killed within months of protests. America's fear returned once more, so it ordered him to resign because he could not calm the situation, which threatened to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa...
d- Thus, Desalegn resigned on 15/02/2018. America brought in a ruler for Ethiopia from the largest rebelling tribe, the majority of whom are Muslims—the Oromo. They brought in Abiy Ahmed, who belongs to this tribe. His mother is a Christian from the Amhara tribe, as is his wife, to win over the two largest tribes in Ethiopia. He held positions in the military and then in the intelligence service, followed by political positions... He took office as Prime Minister on 02/04/2018. Abiy Ahmed was subjected to an assassination attempt on 23/06/2018 (when a person attacked with a grenade during a rally in the capital, Addis Ababa, after he delivered a speech before tens of thousands of people. After the explosion, he said, "An unsuccessful attempt by forces that do not want to see Ethiopia united." The U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa condemned the attack, saying: "Violence has no place in Ethiopia"... Al-Hurra, 23/06/2018). It is not unlikely that this was related to the internal military and security changes he made by dismissing the Commander of the Armed Forces as well as the head of General Intelligence on 08/06/2018. These two institutions were accused of killing hundreds of protesters and arresting tens of thousands during the protests since 2015.
Thus, America holds the reins of power in Ethiopia, especially after Abiy Ahmed took office. He is implementing American plans and orientations to remove tension between American agents in the region so they become a significant force in facing any European political penetration or Chinese economic expansion.
2- Regarding the rule in Eritrea:
As mentioned earlier, after the officers' coup against Haile Selassie and the end of British influence in Ethiopia (including Eritrea), Mengistu Mariam took power and engaged in bloody repression. America feared a popular revolution that Britain might exploit to return, so it removed Mengistu and brought Zenawi in 1991... At the same time, movements and protests appeared in Eritrea demanding independence. America saw fit to answer their demands to calm the situation, so Eritrea's independence was declared in 1993, and Afwerki was installed. However, the declaration of independence did not define the borders of the new state. Afwerki feared that Ethiopia might return and annex it again, so on 12/05/1998, he carried out military actions to demarcate the borders, contrary to the view of America which had installed him as ruler. He continued this, rejecting the American plan for negotiations presented by Susan Rice on 30/05/1998. He almost succeeded in demarcating the borders until America saw this as a rebellion against it. It then resorted to disciplining him and deliberately humiliating him, ordering Zenawi to launch a brutal war on 04/02/1999 against Eritrea. This escalated and became bloodier on 12/05/2000 until it erased all the borders he had drawn and entered deep into Eritrea in a humiliating manner. Afwerki then agreed to the Algiers Agreement on 18/06/2000 and to all the required conditions. Despite this, the border issue remained unresolved! We issued a political comment at the time on 20 Rabi’ al-Awwal 1421 AH - 22/06/2000 CE, in which we said:
(...On Sunday, 18/06/2000, the foreign ministers of Eritrea and Ethiopia signed the ceasefire agreement between their countries in Algiers, in the presence of its ruler as the chairman of the current session of the Organization of African Unity, and in the presence of representatives from the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations. The agreement contains fifteen articles, the most important being: defining and demarcating the shared borders between the two countries through international experts delegated by the United Nations. This is alongside postponing the redeployment of Ethiopian forces stationed in Badme and other border areas until two weeks after the arrival of international forces, and Eritrea evacuating a 25-kilometer-wide zone along its border with Ethiopia as a buffer zone under the control of international forces until the borders are demarcated and the conflict is resolved... Clinton commented on the signing, saying: "This is a great step forward and should end the tragic conflict in the Horn of Africa." He added: "Ethiopia and Eritrea are friends of America. If they are ready to take the next steps, we and our partners in the international community will walk with them." Anthony Lake—the presidential envoy—commented: "This is an important moment that ends a conflict that lasted for two years.")
Although the agreement called for the demarcation of the borders, it remained suspended! Ethiopia was never concerned with demarcating these borders; rather, it considered Eritrea a part of its territory and one of its provinces. The emperors of Abyssinia and later Mengistu Mariam sought to merge it by various means and methods, given their urgent need for naval outlets in Eritrea... For this reason, Afwerki tried to demarcate the borders militarily and almost succeeded, were it not for the Ethiopian attack on 12/05/2000 CE, pushed by America as discipline for Afwerki. Thus, Afwerki was forced to accept all that Ethiopia demanded, explicitly announcing acceptance of the agreement issued under the cover of the Organization of African Unity, which was signed in Algiers on Sunday, 18/06/2000 CE.
We also said in the aforementioned political comment: (Ethiopia and Eritrea are countries dependent on America in their policies, and their rulers are its agents. It is America that enabled Meles Zenawi, leading the Tigray People's Liberation Front, to take power in Addis Ababa when it wanted to change its agent Mengistu Mariam in 1991. It is also America that enabled Isaias Afwerki, leading the Eritrean People's Liberation Front, to gain independence from Ethiopia in 1993. The dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea is a dispute between agents—or "friends" as Clinton and political experts in the White House or the West like to call them. America tried to resolve the dispute between them through negotiations and dedicated the efforts of its most prominent expert, Anthony Lake, who spent more than a year without being able to resolve the dispute; as Afwerki did not accept the American proposals, seeing them as biased in favor of Ethiopia... When Afwerki became stubborn in this way, it resorted to disciplining and deliberately humiliating him with military force—its custom in dealing with its agents if they think of rebelling against it. It was America that pushed Zenawi to launch the latest war on Eritrea, and its ambassador to the UN, Holbrooke, gave him the green light to launch it... On Wednesday, 10/05/1998, before leaving Asmara and after meeting with the Eritrean President, he stated: "We are very close to the resumption of war and the outbreak of a new round of fighting, which, if it happens, will be the largest war on the African continent." These were the fiery statements Holbrooke made before leaving Asmara, which signaled a great evil to everyone who heard them at that time. This Holbrooke became an omen of ill-fortune for the countries he visited around the world; he followed in the footsteps of his ill-reputed predecessor, Kissinger, in igniting wars and bringing calamities, undervaluing the blood of people for the sake of maintaining American interests... Thursday, 20 Rabi’ al-Awwal 1421 AH - corresponding to 22/06/2000 CE). End quote.
It is clear from the above that Eritrea's reservations about the American proposals did not mean its lack of submission to America; rather, it meant it wanted to convince America to help it demarcate the borders between it and Ethiopia permanently so that Eritrea would not remain in a state of "quasi-independence," because Ethiopia's failure to define its borders with Eritrea keeps doubt in the minds of the Eritreans regarding Ethiopia's intentions.
Thus, it becomes clear that Afwerki and Abiy Ahmed are both American agents. It is not easy for them to conclude the Asmara agreement with the terms mentioned therein without America's knowledge, planning, and orders for them to implement it.
Third: As for why America waited 18 years between the Algiers agreement in 2000 and the Asmara agreement in 2018, it is due to its own interests:
After the Algiers agreement, which was under American sponsorship, the most difficult knot was the demarcation of the borders. Ethiopia wanted to procrastinate, while Eritrea was insistent. Despite this, America did not care to pressure for a solution, as its interests were preserved whether resolved or not. Both were its agents, and their bickering did not affect its interests as it saw them at the time. However, things changed in recent years that made America reconsider its African policy, especially in the Horn of Africa:
1- The frequent fluctuations of rule in Ethiopia naturally weakened the regime and destabilized it, making it easy to penetrate. Thus, it became a target for colonialist countries, especially for Britain in terms of political influence and China in terms of economic influence. All this necessitated a return of American interest, which was recently culminated in the Ethiopian-Eritrean reconciliation and its many dimensions that serve America.
2- Reports indicated that Ethiopia has huge oil reserves in many regions, and work has actually begun to extract it in a large number of areas... Ethiopianna Net, 01/04/2013. (It is expected that the production of oil wells in the region will reach 40 billion gallons of oil and reach the markets during 2018... Mogadishu Center, 25/12/2016). Thus, oil became a new factor moving American policy toward more interest in the Horn of Africa, especially since Chinese companies have the lead and economic precedence in exploration and extraction of Ethiopian oil. It is not hidden from America the strong and increasing scenes of the Chinese economic invasion of the African continent, especially in Ethiopia, where China is investing heavily given the size of the Ethiopian market. (China is working to strengthen its investments in Africa, especially in Ethiopia, which has turned in recent years into a Chinese industrial zone. The Ethiopian authorities, for their part, are working to facilitate foreign investments and emphasize that they are the primary beneficiary of the Chinese presence on their land... France 24, 05/06/2018). Therefore, this increasing American rush toward Ethiopia was to restrict the economic influence of China.
3- Extensive attempts by British influence to infiltrate the Horn of Africa. A rapid development of relations between the UAE and Ethiopia was observed. After relations between them were neglected to the extent that the UAE established its embassy in Addis Ababa only in 2010, cooperation between them accelerated thereafter. Agreements were signed covering several fields, such as technical cooperation for customs assistance and opening a representative office for the Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Addis Ababa in 2013, civil aviation in 2014, and higher education, youth, and sports in 2015. The joint Ethiopian-Emirati committee was established, which held its meetings at the level of foreign ministers... During the official visit of former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn in 2016 to the UAE, bilateral relations witnessed a qualitative leap in all fields. This was the result of a series of talks Desalegn held with the political leadership in the UAE during an official visit to Abu Dhabi. At the time, former Government Communication Affairs Office Minister Getachew Reda said: (Desalegn's visit discussed a number of common issues concerning cooperation between the two countries to serve common interests, especially in the economic, investment, regional, and international fields... UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation Reem Al Hashimi said during a program organized by the UAE embassy in Addis Ababa that Ethiopia is among the strategic partners of the UAE in Africa, and that the two countries share commonalities... Al-Ain News, 07/03/2018).
Britain, through the gateway of the UAE, is attempting to link Ethiopia to its axes and policies in the hope of influencing Ethiopia and Eritrea. For this reason, the visits are noteworthy. (Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan held a formal session of talks with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa on June 15 last year, which dealt with strengthening friendship, cooperation, and strategic partnership relations between the two countries. On Tuesday, July 3, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi received the President of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki, expressing his hope that this visit would contribute to supporting cooperation relations between the UAE and Eritrea during the next stage to bring good to the two countries and their friendly peoples... 22/07/2018 Al-Khaleej).
These developments and changes made America pay great attention to Africa, especially the Horn of Africa, and become active in it. Therefore, in September 2017, America appointed Donald Yukio Yamamoto as Acting Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, which is the most influential position in making American policy toward the African continent. Yamamoto's choice for this position did not come from a vacuum; he is considered one of the most experienced American diplomats in the African file, especially in the Horn of Africa region, having previously represented his country diplomatically in the countries of that region... He had effective contributions in paving the way for the Asmara agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea to remove the tension between them and for relations to be good. Thus, the Asmara agreement was concluded as a confirmation and completion of the Algiers agreement to settle matters between Ethiopia and Eritrea—rather, between its agents in the region. It is expected that the tension between Ethiopia and Egypt regarding the dam will also decrease; Abiy Ahmed visited Egypt and met Sisi on 10/07/2018, i.e., one day after signing the Asmara agreement, and signed with Sisi an agreement to adopt a common vision between the two states based on respecting the right of each to achieve development without prejudice to the interest of the other... Naturally, all this is with American approval. Likewise, with Sudan, America sent a technical and diplomatic delegation last April as a mediation initiative to bring the viewpoints of the three countries closer to fortify its agents against Chinese economic penetration and British political penetration.
Fourth: In conclusion, it is painful that the colonialist disbelieving countries, led by America, control the countries of the region... Some may not know that Muslims in Ethiopia and Eritrea make up about half of the population; indeed, some estimate their numbers to be more than that, exceeding fifty million... Some may also not know that the ship of the first Muslims who migrated from Makkah to Abyssinia landed in Massawa, the famous port in Eritrea... Despite this, the two countries are the focus of interest for America, China, and Europe, while almost no interest appears for the Muslims in them... In any case, this matter is neither strange nor surprising, for as long as Muslims are without a state to shepherd their affairs, their condition will be like orphans at the table of the villainous... Their affairs will not be rectified nor their situation set straight except by a Khilafah that unites them upon the Book of Allah (swt) and the Sunnah of His Messenger (saw).
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the Exalted in Might, the Merciful." (QS Ar-Rum [30]: 4-5)
6 Safar 1440 AH 15/10/2018 CE