Question:
Why does Haftar, the US agent in Libya, disperse his forces in the vast Libyan South instead of concentrating his efforts against Western Libya, which is loyal to the Europeans, to settle the conflict in his favor? All the influence and weight are in the North—both West and East—and not in the South. Or are there other objectives for his campaign in the South?
Answer: We review the following matters to clarify the answer:
First: After the US agent Haftar seized control of the city of Benghazi, he gained control over Eastern Libya. By settling the conflict in his favor in the city of Derna in mid-2018, Haftar tightened his grip on Eastern Libya completely. With the battles moving to the Oil Crescent region, the heat of the conflict intensified between the agents of America, led by Haftar, and the agents of the Europeans, led by Sarraj in Tripoli. By successfully extending control over the Oil Crescent, his military weight began to outweigh the Sarraj government. However, his military strength, supported by America's agent Sisi, is not entirely decisive enough to enable him to take Western Libya, as the European countries themselves repel him from that region. Additionally, there is the proximity of that area to Algeria, which is loyal to the Europeans. This fear of Algeria and its intervention is evident in Haftar's statements (“Libyan Foreign Minister Mohamed Siala disowned on Monday the 'irresponsible statements' of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, in which he threatened to 'transfer the Libyan war to Algeria in moments...' Haftar had announced that Algeria 'is exploiting the security situation in Libya' and that 'Algerian soldiers crossed the Libyan border...' France 24, 10/09/2018).
Second: This reality of support from Sisi’s Egypt—and America behind it—for Haftar, which allowed him to control Eastern Libya and the Oil Crescent, is met with the opposing reality represented by the Sarraj government and Algeria’s readiness to defend it due to geographical proximity, backed by the Europeans. This situation and its counter-situation have created a kind of stalemate, even if the military scale tips toward Haftar due to significant American support, which aligns with its vision for a solution in Libya—namely, opening negotiations after Haftar's position becomes decisive or nearly decisive. However, from the perspective of the political medium, the balance still tips in favor of Sarraj; European influence ensures his control over the capital, Tripoli, and the weight of the European-aligned political medium within it. Thus, Haftar cannot advance to take the capital, nor can he open serious negotiations with the Sarraj government as equal parties. These two dilemmas for the conflicting parties in Libya have created a state of stagnation where neither side can achieve a decisive victory. Therefore, moving the battles to Southern Libya constitutes an exit for Haftar, enabling him to increase the area of his military control, whereby a solution can then be implemented with American influence stronger than that of Europe. This is what happened; ("Marshal Khalifa Haftar's forces launched a major military operation on Wednesday in the south of the country aimed at 'cleansing' it of armed groups, including elements of the extremist 'Islamic State' organization and criminal gangs, according to a spokesman for the Libyan National Army..." France 24, 17/01/2019). Under the headings of "terrorism and criminal gangs," America pushes its agent Haftar toward the Libyan South to achieve many local and regional objectives to strengthen its influence and erode the influence of European countries.
Third: By examining closely, we find that Haftar’s campaign in Southern Libya achieves for him and for American influence two goals on the level of the internal Libyan conflict, and achieves for America two other goals against Europe and its influence in Africa, as detailed below:
1- As for the two goals regarding the conflict inside Libya:
a- Controlling a large area: If Haftar manages to extend his military control over those vast areas in Southern Libya, it will provide him with a heavier hand in negotiations. Besides the internal military importance of controlling cities like Sabha and other southern towns, it will allow him to gain more "legitimacy" as the party holding the largest portion of Libyan territory. This has significant implications for political solutions, even if his proximity to the Algerian border from the south poses a risk to him; however, he may aspire to consolidate this while Algeria is preoccupied with presidential elections.
b- Controlling the Libyan economy: After a series of back-and-forth maneuvers, Haftar’s forces tightened their grip on the Oil Crescent in mid-2018 and transferred its revenues to the branch of the National Oil Corporation in Benghazi instead of Tripoli. Thus, the Sarraj government was deprived of oil from the Oil Crescent region on one hand, and Haftar prepared to export it for his own benefit on the other. The battle then moved to the oil ports to prevent Haftar from exporting it. Jadhran’s militias seized the ports of Sidra and Ras Lanuf, and the Sarraj government in Tripoli considered him (Jadhran) the legitimate commander of the Oil Facilities Guard, but this did not hold for the Sarraj government ("Then violent clashes broke out with the Libyan army forces, after which the General Command of the Libyan Armed Forces announced, on June 21, the full control over the Ras Lanuf and Sidra area..." Russian Sputnik, 07/07/2018). Thus, Haftar controlled the Oil Crescent, including the export ports. Since that date, the efforts of the Government of National Accord led by Sarraj have focused on preventing countries from importing Libyan oil from the Oil Crescent controlled by Haftar's forces. Consequently, Libya's export capacity dropped significantly, and the Sarraj government continued to export oil extracted from the Murzuq desert, specifically the "Sharara field (300,000 barrels per day) and El Feel field (125,000 barrels)." With the movement of the—not very hot—battles to the South, and Haftar's forces seizing the Sharara oil field near the city of Sabha ("A spokesman for the Eastern Libyan forces said today, Monday, on Twitter: 'The armed forces have completed their full control over the Sharara field with all its main facilities peacefully without any clash, and are now securing it in coordination with the field management'..." Youm7, 11/02/2019), this adds economic power to Haftar. This large oil field, which could produce up to 400,000 barrels per day and is owned by a Spanish company, is a major point of contention between the US agent Haftar and the European agents in Tripoli. With this development—Haftar’s control over it, which allows him to easily control the fields behind it to the far south, especially the El Feel field—the Sarraj government has lost its economic lifeline. It remains dependent on the international European umbrella to prevent Haftar from exporting oil and to force him to export through Tripoli's oil institutions. Nevertheless, he controls the sources, leaving the issue of exporting through ports and pipelines he does not control to negotiations through which he achieves his financial purposes, enabling him to pump funds into the veins of his military forces.
2- As for the two goals against Europe and its influence in Africa:
a- Keeping migration from Africa a headache for Europe: This is an American objective against Europe, aimed at preventing it from establishing military bases in Libya under the pretext of stopping African migration. The control of the US agent Haftar over military facilities deep within Libya—most of which are airports and landing strips—deprives European countries of using them, whether for their influence in Libya or for regional objectives in Africa. Under the pretext of stopping African migration to Europe, European countries are building a foothold in those facilities, which America and its agent Haftar reject ("Retired Libyan General Khalifa Haftar warned of international parties seeking to establish a military presence in some areas of the Libyan South. Haftar said that while the General Command is keen to establish warm relations and balanced strategic partnerships with all international parties, information is received about the desire of some international parties to establish a military presence in the Libyan South... Libyan sources mentioned that an Italian security and military delegation visited the city of Ghat 'in the far southwest of Libya' yesterday, Thursday, with the aim of establishing an Italian military and civilian base, with European funding, to control the movement of illegal migration..." Al Jazeera Net, 29/06/2018). By Haftar controlling important areas in the South, he deprives the Europeans of positioning and building military bases in Southern Libya ("The Air Force Operations Room of the General Command of the Libyan Army announced a ban on landing and taking off from southern region airports and landing strips except with its approval, warning any aircraft against landing in the southern region's airspace if it flies without permission from the Libyan army command..." Youm7, 08/02/2019). Thus, by pushing Haftar to the South, America has restricted European movements in the Libyan South and kept the problem of African migrants as a persistent headache for Europe.
b- Working against European influence in the Sahara region: The objectives of Haftar’s campaign in the Libyan South are not limited to the goals mentioned above. America is planning—and indeed directly implementing—a regional objective to destabilize French influence in the Sahara region. Due to the weakness of the central government in Tripoli, the vacuum in Southern Libya has created a suitable environment for the armed activity of African opposition groups. Chadian, Nigerien, and Sudanese opposition groups have grown and flourished, becoming an element in the internal power equation in Libya. These are significant forces; ("The Chadian newspaper Al-Wihda, published in French, said on Wednesday that about 11,000 members of the Chadian opposition are currently deployed in Southern Libya..." Bawabat Al-Wasat, 04/04/2018). With the pretext of "terrorism" that America uses to justify its interventions and inspires its agents to ride its wave, America is openly intervening in Libya ("A Libyan official said that American and Libyan forces carried out a joint raid on a site where Al-Qaeda supporters were stationed on the outskirts of the city of Ubari on Wednesday..." EuroNews Arabic, 14/01/2019). This American pretext of terrorism is the same one used by Haftar "to cleanse the region of terrorist and armed groups."
The groups with military weight in Southern Libya are the Chadian movements ("The Libyan National Army, led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, launched a military campaign last January in the southwest of the country against armed groups, the largest of which belong to the Chadian opposition..." RT, 12/02/2019). The "Libyan National Army" announced by Haftar said in a brief statement that ("fighters of the Libyan Arab Air Force took turns striking three gatherings of Chadian gangs and their allies in our beloved south..." Al-Arabiya Net, 08/02/2019).
c- From this, it becomes clear that Haftar’s campaign in Southern Libya is carrying out an organized expulsion of these groups from Libya—i.e., pushing them out so they have another mission in Chad: creating unrest for French influence there. This is exactly what happened immediately; ("French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said on Tuesday that French forces bombed a rebel convoy in Chad to prevent a coup against President Idriss Deby. In response to a request from Deby, French warplanes bombed a heavily armed rebel convoy that crossed last week from Libya and penetrated into Chadian territory. Le Drian told members of Parliament: 'A rebel group coming from Southern Libya launched an attack... to seize power by force in N'Djamena. President Deby asked us in writing to intervene to prevent a coup and protect his country'" Reuters, 12/02/2019). Because these dangers that the US agent Haftar is pushing toward Chad are real, France deploys a large force in the Chadian capital to defend its agent Idriss Deby ("France deploys 4,500 soldiers in the Chadian capital N'Djamena as part of an operation known as the Barkhane force to combat terrorism"). Previous source.
d- From all this, it appears that America, while penetrating Libya—and despite its agent's inability to settle the situation in Western Libya in his favor due to European support for the Sarraj government—has moved to destabilize French influence in Chad. The advancement of Idriss Deby’s opponents inside Chadian territory coming from Southern Libya could be a prelude to what is to come: namely, that battles may flare up in Chad, and perhaps later in Niger, against French influence and against the dominance of French companies, especially over uranium mines in that region.
Fourth: The conclusion is that Haftar, with the significant military support provided to him by America, especially through Egypt, has been able to split Libya into two parts. He completely controlled the eastern part and seized the Oil Crescent, the backbone of Libya's economy. He managed to make a breakthrough in the western part, and now America is directing him to the South for further military and economic control. Thus, amidst the stagnation resulting from the resistance of Western Libya due to the fear of Algeria and the great European support for the Sarraj government, America is pushing Haftar to achieve other goals for it. These goals increase the exhaustion of European countries regarding the migration issue and attack French influence in neighboring countries from another angle, starting with Chad.
These are the dimensions of Haftar’s campaign in the Libyan South. From them, it is clear that the Kafir states are spreading corruption in Libya for the sake of their interests and influence. For this purpose, parties among Muslims are fighting without observing the sanctity of God in killing their brothers and wasting their country's oil wealth. Nothing will eliminate these agents and the Kafir states behind them, nor the evil they spread in the lands of Islam, except for the Muslims to rise in a serious effort, establishing the rule of Allah and declaring their Khilafah, which will restore matters to their proper place and turn the hopes of the Kafir states in the Islamic lands into terrifying nightmares for them.
إِنَّ فِي هَذَا لَبَلَاغاً لِقَوْمٍ عَابِدِينَ
"Indeed, in this [Quran] is notification for a worshipping people." (QS. Al-Anbiya [21]: 106)
15 Jumada al-Akhirah 1440 AH Corresponding to 20/02/2019 CE