The Question:
On June 24, 2023, the leader of the Russian Wagner forces announced a rebellion against the Russian forces, demanding to meet with the Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff, launching a harsh attack against them. His forces began marching toward Moscow. Russian President Putin delivered a short speech on the matter, describing it as treason and a "stab in the back." On the same day, the rebellion ceased through the mediation of the President of Belarus, with an agreement for the Wagner leader to go there. The West was surprised by both the outbreak and the rapid conclusion of the rebellion. Why did this rebellion happen? What are its consequences for Russia? Is there a Western or American role behind it? Please excuse the length of the question, and may Allah reward you with goodness...
The Answer:
To clarify the answer, we review the following points:
The Wagner Group is a Russian quasi-state security company founded in 2014, led by the billionaire Yevgeny Prigozhin, known as "Putin's Chef" and a close associate because he owned a restaurant that prepared food for the President. The company contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, trains its elements in its camps, and is supplied with weapons by them as well. It carries out "dirty" military and security missions and economic activities for the Russian state. It resembles the infamous American Blackwater company, which played a dirty role alongside American forces in the early years of the occupation of Iraq. It operates outside of accountability and legal prosecution, organizing killings, assassinations, arrests, and torture without legal oversight, because its missions and operations were originally outside of Russia, not inside. However, the Russian state utilized it in its war against Ukraine. During a televised meeting with law enforcement authorities on June 27, 2023, Putin stated, "The state paid the Wagner Group 86.262 billion rubles (about one billion dollars) as salaries for fighters and incentive bonuses between May 2022 and May 2023 alone." Consequently, the leader of the group felt powerful, believing he could do as he pleased since he possessed money, weapons, and led tens of thousands of elements while enjoying popularity among Russians. He became a force capable of blackmailing or threatening the regime. It appears he was struck by arrogance, believing he could reach high positions, especially since Wagner forces are deployed in several countries, including Syria, Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic.
The Wagner Group's fame grew during its involvement in Russia's war in Ukraine, particularly in the battle for Bakhmut, which lasted for months and was reportedly only settled by Wagner forces. The name of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, began appearing frequently in the news, especially as he criticized the Russian Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff for failing to provide his forces with equipment during the battles in Ukraine, particularly in Bakhmut. He went so far as to accuse them of treason and demanded their dismissal, holding the army responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of Russians in Ukraine and for surrendering territory to the enemy. He used the Telegram site to launch his statements and accusations. At the same time, he criticized the war Russia is waging against Ukraine. A day before his rebellion, on June 23, 2023, he made statements on Telegram saying, "The Russian Defense Minister wanted to obtain the rank of Marshal and the Hero of Russia medal, so he pushed for the invasion of Ukraine." He added, "It is not true that Ukraine was planning with NATO before the war to attack Russia. The Ministry of Defense deceived President Putin and the Russians by promoting the idea that Ukraine had allied with NATO to attack Russia." He also claimed, "Russian forces are retreating in eastern and southern Ukraine following the counter-offensive launched by Ukraine against them."
The Wagner leader announced on the morning of Saturday, June 24, 2023, that he had entered the military headquarters in the Russian city of Rostov, which serves as a primary center for the Russian offensive on Ukraine, and had seized control of military sites, including the airport. He then stated on Telegram: "We are at the headquarters; it is 7:30 (4:30 GMT)." He added, "Military sites in Rostov are under control, including the airport," and said, "Large areas of territory occupied in Ukraine have been lost, and many soldiers have been killed." He renewed his accusation against the Russian army for not telling the truth about the situation on the front, stating, "The army is losing up to a thousand men a day" including the killed, wounded, missing, and those who refuse to fight. He said: "The Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, fled from here when he discovered we were approaching the building..." and claimed, "They wanted to dismantle the Wagner forces." He announced that his forces had entered the border city of Rostov and then headed toward Voronezh, then toward Lipetsk, which is about 510 km from the Russian capital, Moscow, reaching a point about 200 km from it. Despite this, he tried to avoid explicitly accusing Putin to keep a path for retreat, stating on June 26, 2023, on Telegram: "He did not target President Putin and had no desire to overthrow the regime when he announced his forces would march toward Moscow. The group was marching to prevent the dissolution of Wagner and its integration into the Ministry of Defense, and he ordered his forces to return to avoid bloodshed."
However, his attempt to avoid accusing Putin failed. The Russian President threatened to crush the rebellion hours after it began. On June 24, 2023, he said on Russian television: "The armed rebellion by the Wagner private military group is treason, and anyone who takes up arms against the Russian army will be punished... The security services have received orders to declare a counter-terrorism regime... The battle Russia is fighting requires unity from us to confront external plots... Last night, I communicated with all military commanders on all axes, and our responses to this threat will be firm and harsh. What happened is treachery and a stab in the back. There are those who were dragged into a criminal adventure through rebellion at a time when Russia is fighting a war against Nazism... Any internal disturbances pose a fatal threat to the state and are a slap in the face to the Russian people." He accused the Wagner leader of having "personal ambitions." The Wagner chief's response was: "Putin was deeply mistaken when he described them as traitors," and he was quoted as saying, "Putin chose the wrong path, and soon Russia will have a new president..." (Telegram, June 24, 2023).
Matters escalated here, especially since the conditions of the war in Ukraine are extremely difficult for Russia. It is exhausting Russia and draining its material and human resources, and it has made no significant progress; rather, it cannot advance and is in a defensive posture, even retreating from some positions. This rebellion was potentially fatal for Russia, and especially for President Putin, who is caught in the trap of a war that will decide his fate and the fate of his country. At this critical stage, the Russian President prompted his Belarusian counterpart to mediate to stop the rebellion and resolve the problem peacefully. The Belarusian presidency issued a statement saying, "President Lukashenko informed the President of Russia in detail about the results of the negotiations with the leadership of the Wagner group, and Putin thanked him for the work he had done." A proposal to resolve the crisis was presented, including providing security guarantees for the Wagner chief, as the talks were conducted in coordination with President Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed the key points of the agreement between Presidents Putin and Lukashenko: "Some Wagner fighters who refused from the start to join Prigozhin's campaign will be given the opportunity to join the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces and contract with the Ministry of Defense... They will not be subject to any legal prosecution... Wagner forces will return to their camps... Those who do not wish to return to headquarters and camps will sign agreements with the Russian Ministry of Defense... The criminal case against Prigozhin will be closed, and he will leave for Belarus..." (Russia Today, June 25, 2023). Thus, Putin was able to handle the rebellion, saving Russia and himself from significant losses and clashes.
It appears that the Wagner leader was moving in improvised steps he designed for himself. Had he succeeded in reaching Moscow and found support while the state was unable to strike and eliminate him, he would have looked toward ousting Putin and taking his place. It seems he lacked the courage to continue his march and feared failure, and Putin's threats reached him through Belarus alongside incentives of pardon and being allowed to go to Belarus. It was as if he preferred safety over risk. After the aforementioned agreement announced on June 25, 2023, the Wagner leader said on Telegram: "His forces will return to their camps to prevent bloodshed... We are very happy that we have so far been able to avoid bloodshed. We set out on June 23 on a march for justice. In one day, we reached within 200 km of Moscow."
Thus, Putin avoided the crisis, even if only temporarily. He said on his country's television on June 26, 2023: "We managed to avoid a catastrophe in Russia by thwarting the Wagner rebellion. We appreciate the role of Belarus in reaching a peaceful settlement for the Wagner rebellion crisis... The organizers of the armed rebellion in Russia betrayed their homeland, and recent events showed that any blackmail is destined to fail..." He renewed his "offer to Wagner fighters to join the army, and whoever wants to go to Belarus may do so." He added, "The West and Kyiv wanted a civil war to break out in Russia, and the security services kept their oath to preserve Russia." This means the rebellion threatened the Russian state, shook the regime, and damaged President Putin's reputation and authority. It affected Russia's international standing, as the rebellion showed that its internal situation is precarious and unstable.
As for the Western positions, it appears they were surprised by the rebellion and its rapid conclusion. They wanted it to continue, which is why they focused all their attention on what was happening in Russia, and communications began between officials in these countries. Such a rebellion would have affected the course of the war in Ukraine and turned things upside down for Russia, potentially fulfilling the West's desires. America revealed its stance; President Biden said, "The West had nothing to do with the Wagner group's rebellion in Russia, and the events in Russia are part of a struggle for power." He added, "He directed the national security team to follow developments in Russia closely." Secretary of State Blinken said, "We have not yet seen the final chapter of this rebellion, but someone inside challenging Putin's authority and directly questioning the reasons for launching this attack on Ukraine is very powerful. Although the conflict was resolved as quickly as it began, it is a blow to Putin's leadership. The current crisis in Russia raises major questions and shows real cracks..." (CBS and Reuters, June 26, 2023). State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said: "The rebellion of the Wagner armed forces is an internal Russian matter, and we were not involved... We had channels of communication with the Russians 'through the US ambassador in Moscow' on Saturday during the Wagner forces' rebellion. It is something new to see Yevgeny Prigozhin directly questioning the logical justification for this war and declaring that the war was based essentially on a lie..." (Al-Weeam Saudi and Reuters, June 26, 2023). EU Foreign Ministers stated: "The thwarted rebellion in Russia over the weekend showed that Moscow's war in Ukraine is causing internal instability and undermining its military power," and EU Foreign Policy Coordinator Josep Borrell said, "Weaknesses are appearing in the political system 'in Russia' and the military power is cracking..." (Al-Weeam Saudi, June 26, 2023). NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said: "The events witnessed in Russia are an internal matter," adding, "We see no indication that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons" (Sky News, June 26, 2023).
Thus, the Americans and Westerners emphasized that they had no connection to the rebellion. Despite these assurances, it is not excluded that they, especially the Americans, encouraged the leader of Wagner to do such a thing by one means or another. Otherwise, it is difficult to imagine him performing such an act while leading militias composed of people with criminal records! He is similar to Yeltsin, the first Russian president after the collapse of the Soviet Union, who received encouragement and guidance from the Americans to reach power and bring down the Soviet Union, which was revealed later. In this case as well, The Washington Post published on May 15, 2023, that the Wagner leader met with Ukrainian officials in an African country and was prepared to give Kyiv information about the Russian armed forces in exchange for Ukrainian forces withdrawing from his path in Bakhmut. It stated its report was based on leaked US intelligence documents and unnamed American and Ukrainian officials. However, on his Telegram account, he categorically denied this and considered it "laughable." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, "The information published by the Washington Post is misinformation" (AFP, May 16, 2023). But despite his denial and the Kremlin's denial, his criticism of the Russian military operation, his attack on the Defense Minister, and his accusation of deceiving President Putin—knowing that the decision to launch the war on Ukraine was not the Defense Ministry's decision but Putin's own—proves otherwise. This was evident in the meeting where Putin gathered all the pillars of his rule two days before the war on February 22, 2022, which was broadcast live on Russia Today. The war decision was Putin's, not the Defense Minister's. The Wagner leader's criticism of the war decision, while attributing it to the Ministry of Defense despite knowing it was the President's, was intended to avoid criticizing the President directly for fear of retaliation, especially while declaring he does not believe in the war and that it is incorrect. This is something that pleases the West, especially the Americans. It is not excluded that they contacted him through the Ukrainians or in their presence and encouraged him to do this, but when he saw Putin's threats, he seemingly retreated, lacked self-confidence, and preferred to save his own neck and live in exile in Belarus.
This rebellion is considered the greatest challenge to Putin since he took power in 1999. It is not excluded that it will encourage others to rebel. The leader of a militia whose forces are mostly criminals, with him at their head, was able to shake Putin's prestige and authority! This shows that Putin is a weaker person than imagined and that he is in a dilemma, having preferred settlement with a rebel! This incident dealt a slap to his face and shook confidence in his leadership and his state. This is the nature of the colonial kaafir states, East and West; they only appear standing because there is no one to shake them. Perhaps history will repeat itself, and the earth will shine with the Khilafah once again, eliminating the new Persians and Romans. Russia and the West conspired against the Muslims in the past and present, and each is an evil no less than the other in their war against Islam and its people. Allah will frustrate their work, test some of them by means of others, and grant victory to His Deen to save humanity from their evil.
إِنَّا لَنَنْصُرُ رُسُلَنَا وَالَّذِينَ آمَنُوا فِي الْحَيَاةِ الدُّنْيَا وَيَوْمَ يَقُومُ الْأَشْهَادُ
"Indeed, We will support Our messengers and those who believe during the life of this world and on the Day when the witnesses will stand." (QS Ghafir [40]: 51)
13th of Dhu al-Hijjah 1444 AH July 1, 2023 CE