Question: What are the dimensions and significance of the American military alliance with both Britain and Australia? Is it directed against China? Or is it a British and American slap to France after it destroyed British influence in Tunisia, following the coup of its followers against American agents in Guinea, and after France's efforts to build a European force independent of America?
Answer: To clarify the answer to these questions, we review the following matters:
1- In a video summit, US President Biden, British Prime Minister Johnson, and Australian Prime Minister Morrison spoke in an announcement from the three parties about a defense partnership. According to Sky News Arabia, 16/09/2021, Biden said: ("We all recognize the imperative of ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific over the long term." Morrison said: "We will continue to meet all our obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty." As for Johnson, he described the decision as of great importance and said: "It will be one of the most complex projects in the world.") These countries kept the preparation of their alliance secret and then surprised China and France with it...
2- While France showed great anger and accused America and Australia of lying and accused Britain of constant opportunism, stating that this alliance constitutes a stab in the back due to Australia's cancellation of the massive submarine deal concluded with France since 2016 worth 56 billion euros (66 billion US dollars - BBC, 18/09/2021), China, for its part, spoke of the first actual inauguration of a Cold War on the Asian continent. It called on America and Britain to review the compatibility of this alliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, considering that the transfer of nuclear submarine technology to Australia as a non-nuclear state may constitute a violation of that treaty. There is no doubt that China will consider this alliance dangerous to it, especially in terms of Australia's nuclear submarines, which oppose Chinese hegemony in the Asian seas.
3- Although Europe, America's traditional ally, was revived by the end of the Trump era in America—and this revival increased with the American president shouting that "America is back" and adopting it as his slogan in contrast to Trump's slogan "America First"—the Biden administration's implementation of the withdrawal from Afghanistan without consideration for Europe's opinions and interests showed the dependence of those countries on America in an embarrassing way. The American withdrawal from Afghanistan was the largest international act carried out by the Biden administration in the nine months after he took over the presidency succeeding Trump. As a result, widespread criticism of America arose in Europe, the most famous of which was France's call to create and strengthen a European force separate from America. Then came this new American alliance with Australia and Britain, which had left the European Union, making matters worse! This is what prompted the French Foreign Minister to say, "a sudden decision in the style of Trump," a "stab in the back," and a "painful blow," and then France withdrew its ambassador from Washington for consultations!
4- By scrutinizing the dimensions of this new military alliance, we find that it is a major event on the international stage and will have wide-ranging repercussions that can be viewed within the framework of the American strategy to contain the rise of China and within the framework of America and Britain "punishing" France for its conflicting international behavior and the effect of that on the rest of the European Union countries. This can be clarified as follows:
On the Chinese side:
It is no longer hidden from countries, especially China, that America's priority strategic goals today are to combat the rise of China and contain its international economic and regional military risks. Therefore, China understood the goals of this military alliance from the moment of its announcement, declared its rejection of it, and spoke of a "Cold War mentality" and "ideological bias" and that the agreement violates "the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons" (The spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, stressed that these countries should not form exclusionary blocs targeting the interests of other parties or harming them, and the most important thing they should do is to get rid of the Cold War mentality and ideological bias... Al Jazeera Net, 16/09/2021). China:
a- Undoubtedly realizes that this step is a nucleus for a new alliance against it in the process of formation, similar to NATO which was formed against the Soviet Union. As Al Jazeera quoted from the Washington Post: ("This agreement will allow Australia to own and operate advanced nuclear-powered submarines to replace the old diesel-powered boats, giving Australia an offensive capability that China needs to account for in the event of any conflict." Al Jazeera, 17/09/2021). That is, this agreement will enhance Australia's military capabilities as one of the Asian links opposed to China by providing it with nuclear submarines and American Tomahawk cruise missiles...
b- China also realizes that the American strategy to resist the Chinese rise is the same and has not changed with the change of administrations in Washington. Its essence is strengthening countries opposed to China in its surroundings and planting more risks around it. Under the title of open maritime areas and freedom of navigation, America is militarizing the seas surrounding China, whether through the direct transfer of American military sectors or by providing direct and significant military support to America's Asian links opposed to China, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, and others. While America realizes that its policies to stop China's rise have been delayed due to its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, China also sees that this delay by America pushes Washington to try to stop China's rise without restrictions. This is extremely dangerous; the mere suggestion by the Trump administration of providing Japan and South Korea with nuclear weapons and the Biden administration's pledge today to provide Australia with nuclear submarines increases the danger of American policy against China and that it is no longer disciplined by international treaties.
As for the three allied countries in "AUKUS," their positions on 16/09/2021, as reported by Al Jazeera, were:
a- (Senior US administration officials said, "This defense partnership comes in light of the growing Chinese influence in the region." President Joe Biden said that the AUKUS defense initiative with Britain and Australia will enable these countries to obtain the latest capabilities to maneuver and repel rapidly evolving threats...).
b- (British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that launching a tripartite defense partnership with the United States and Australia aims to work side by side to maintain security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. He added that the first mission of this partnership will be to help Australia obtain nuclear-powered submarines...).
c- Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said (that his country cancelled a huge contract signed with France in 2016 to buy conventional submarines because it prefers to build, with the help of the United States and Britain, nuclear-powered submarines. Morrison added that his country does not seek to possess nuclear weapons and will continue its commitments to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons...).
As for the French side, there were highly emotional angry reactions as they were surprised by what happened:
a- (French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian described Australia's cancellation of the submarine purchase contract with his country as a stab in the back, adding in statements to France Info radio that France feels betrayed, angry, and bitter because of Australia's cancellation of the deal and the conclusion of a partnership with the United States and Britain, under which it will obtain nuclear-powered submarines... Al Jazeera, 16/09/2021). He also said in a statement: ("At the request of the President of the Republic, I decided to immediately recall our ambassadors to the United States and Australia to Paris for consultation. This exceptional decision is justified by the exceptional gravity of what was announced by Australia and the United States on September 15." Euronews Arabic, 17/09/2021). Le Drian told France Info radio: "I am angry... it is something that cannot be done between allies... it is a slap in the face." (Deutsche Welle, 17/09/2021). Before the decision to recall the two ambassadors: (The French authorities cancelled a ceremony that was scheduled to be held yesterday, Friday, in Washington to commemorate the anniversary of a decisive naval battle during the American Revolution, in which France played a major role. Al Jazeera Net, 18/09/2021).
b- French Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly considered (that Australia's cancellation of a huge contract to buy conventional submarines from her country is a serious matter and will constitute very bad news... Al Jazeera, 16/09/2021).
5- As for why the three countries, led by America, took these measures away from France, and even in what resembles a punishment for France, the following is noted:
a- France was openly criticizing and rejecting the policies of the Trump administration, and this appeared in the Eastern Mediterranean crisis between Turkey and Greece. When the Biden administration came and withdrew from Afghanistan in that way which showed the extent of the European countries' dependence on America—those countries that want to appear as an ally, not a follower—France returned within the European Union to push towards creating a European military force separate from the American umbrella "NATO." That is, it returned to oppose the American military leadership of the European countries. Its boldness against American influence in Africa increased, which later appeared in the Guinea coup and before it in the French military activity in the African Sahel countries. All of this created American resentment against France.
b- After the British Brexit negotiations with the EU countries, it surfaced that British-French relations had deteriorated significantly, and neither country showed signs of a breakthrough. This appeared in French and European intransigence in the conditions and agreement of Britain's exit from the Union. Perhaps France and the EU countries wanted to prevent other countries in the Union from following Britain's lead and leaving it, causing the Union to disintegrate, but that left an unprecedented deterioration in French-British relations. Their international policies separated to a great extent. When France was able to take power in Tunisia through Kais Saied's recent measures, it not only disregarded any British interests but also began to seek help from America against Britain in Tunisia, which was not customary in the policy of either of them.
c- Before that, at the beginning of May 2021, there was the "Jersey" island crisis, an island belonging to the British Crown about 20 km from the French coast. Britain sent warships to prevent French fishermen from entering British fishing grounds after its exit from the Union. France threatened to cut off electricity to the island and sent police and guard boats to protect French fishermen in response to the British measures. All of this was an indication of the acceleration in the deterioration of relations between the two countries, which certainly pushes Britain to direct slaps at France and incite America against it. But according to Britain's habit and its craftiness, all of this is in secret... According to the American New York Times, the British government (played an early role in order to establish the tripartite alliance with the United States and Australia to deploy nuclear-powered submarines in the Pacific Ocean, according to officials in London and Washington. Al Arabiya Net, 19/09/2021).
d- But more dangerous than this and that, especially for America, is France's conciliatory position towards China, which is opposite to America's position. (Paris has serious concerns about its traditional allies pursuing a confrontational strategy with China that will inevitably endanger French interests in the region; any military slip of the tripartite alliance strategy in the Indo-Pacific may result in a threat to the security of one million French citizens in "Nouvelle-Calédonie" and "Polynésie française," the two important French territories in what is known as overseas territories...). Accordingly, it is expected that France will work on (crystallizing an independent European strategic compass when it takes over the presidency of the European Union at the beginning of next year, and continuing its efforts to take Europe out of the American defense umbrella and consolidate the European Union's feet on the international stage to be a global power... Al Jazeera, 22/09/2021).
6- These are the dimensions and significance of this new alliance that America, with the participation of Britain, worked to build with Australia to be one of the links in the siege of China on the one hand, and on the other hand to direct a severe slap to France by cancelling its submarine deal with Australia and not including it in this alliance. This alliance pushes matters in the seas surrounding China towards more militarization and tension and proves the high danger with which Washington views the necessity of stopping the rise of China. As for France, with its reckless policy, it is weaker than parrying the American-British punches from its face; rather, all the European Union countries are suffering from great weakness. The amount of European power that France clamored to establish as a European force separate from NATO was a very small amount (five thousand soldiers) to indicate the small international capabilities of Europe, especially after Britain's exit from the European Union.
7- Thus... there are no fixed values for these countries called major today:
بَأْسُهُمْ بَيْنَهُمْ شَدِيدٌ تَحْسَبُهُمْ جَمِيعاً وَقُلُوبُهُمْ شَتَّى ذَلِكَ بِأَنَّهُمْ قَوْمٌ لَا يَعْقِلُونَ
"Their violence among themselves is severe. You think they are together, but their hearts are diverse. That is because they are a people who do not reason." (Surah Al-Hashr 59:14)
They are countries riddled with rot from within and in their relations with each other. Perhaps it is a glad tiding of good and a Sunnah of Allah the Almighty to facilitate the manifestation of His Deen. This is how the states of Persia and Rome were when the first Islamic State was established, and this is how the relations between them were: conflicting relations and apparent feuds:
وَإِذَا أَرَادَ اللَّهُ بِقَوْمٍ سُوءاً فَلَا مَدَّ لَهُ وَمَا لَهُمْ مِنْ دُونِهِ مِنْ وَالٍ
"And when Allah intends for a people ill, there is no repelling it. And there is not for them besides Him any patron." (Surah Ar-Ra'd 13:11)
18th of Safar al-Khayr 1443 AH 25/09/2021 CE