Answer to a Question
Question: Al Jazeera published on its website on 2022/12/09: (The proceedings of the 43rd summit of the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, the Gulf-Chinese Summit, and the Arab-Chinese Summit were held in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on Friday, in the presence of several Arab leaders and Chinese President Xi Jinping). What are the objectives of holding these Chinese summits with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and the Arab countries in Riyadh? Is this China’s way of calling for international multipolarity to expand its political influence and establish itself as a major international pole, in contrast to the violent way in which Russia demands influence and multipolarity? Does this find resonance in the Arab region among the rulers? And what is America's reaction?
Answer: To clarify the answer to these questions, we review the following matters:
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia and met with its King and Crown Prince Ibn Salman on 2022/12/08. He was received warmly, and the two sides signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, including deals worth $30 billion in the fields of energy and infrastructure. This was an attempt to align China's projects within the framework of the Belt and Road strategy with Ibn Salman's projects in the so-called Vision 2030, which carries "entertainment" as its broad title, as well as talk of a large center for Chinese industries in Saudi Arabia for marketing in the region. Then, on the second day, a Chinese summit with the Gulf states was held in Riyadh, followed by a summit with Arab countries on the same day, attended by many Arab "leaders" in a scene described by the Chinese Foreign Ministry as (the largest-scale diplomatic activity between China and the Arab world since the founding of the People's Republic of China. BBC, 2022/12/08). The two summits emphasized strengthening the partnership and economic cooperation between Arab countries and China. The final statement emphasized general matters such as respect for the existing international order, respect for the sovereignty of states, the non-use of force, the principle of good neighborliness, as well as the centrality of the Palestinian cause and efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. China criticized Iran in the final statement of the Chinese-Gulf Summit and demanded that it respect its neighbors (The Gulf states and China issued yesterday a joint statement at the conclusion of the Gulf-Chinese Summit held in Riyadh, "which included support for the initiative and efforts of the UAE to reach a negotiated and peaceful solution to the issue of the three islands," which Iran considers part of its territory, as well as calling on Iran to "engage seriously in negotiations to return to the Iranian nuclear deal." Al-Mayadeen, 2022/12/10). The Chinese ambassador in Tehran was summoned to protest this Chinese position.
The new American strategy classifies China as the greatest threat to American hegemony over the world, and that it possesses the capabilities to build actual influence around the world. China is a country with an economy that is the second in the world after America, and it is also the second country in military spending. Therefore, America monitors China's actions and builds plans to stop its rise; it is even preparing for war with it, as shown by US President Biden's statements regarding the recent Taiwan crisis. America commented on the Chinese President's visit by saying: (The White House said on Wednesday that it was "not surprised" by Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia because Beijing is "working to increase its influence in the Middle East." John Kirby, Strategic Communications Coordinator at the US National Security Council, stated: "We recognize the influence that China is trying to deepen throughout the world," and said "The Chinese President's tour is not surprising, and it is certainly not a surprise that he chose to go to the Middle East." CNN Arabic, 2022/12/08).
In contrast, China tries to show that it does not oppose the American international order; it calls for what America calls for. This appeared in the Chinese President's visit when the final statement of the summit emphasized the maintenance of the international order based on international law, nuclear non-proliferation, and combating terrorism. In fact, the final statement of the Chinese-Arab Summit in Riyadh included implicit criticism of Russia when it emphasized respect for the sovereignty of states, refraining from the use of force or the threat of its use, and respecting the principle of good neighborliness, in reference to the Russian war on Ukraine. Furthermore, China's criticism in the final statement of Iran and its call for good neighborliness and non-interference in the affairs of the Gulf states is considered, from another angle, an alignment with the Western countries and America, which have long directed such criticisms at Iran. With Iran summoning the Chinese ambassador to protest, it appears that the claim of forming a "new international camp" represented by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea is proven once again to be a fictional claim with no reality.
As for Arab relations with China, these summits in Saudi Arabia do not involve any change from an international perspective. It is true that Saudi Arabia received the Chinese President with a warmth that US President Biden did not enjoy during his visit in July 2022, but that indicates a relationship involving Saudi Arabia's participation with the Republicans in their bickering with the Democrats and President Biden, in addition to the lack of respect shown by President Biden for the Saudi Crown Prince Ibn Salman. Furthermore, Arab countries have signed strategic partnership agreements with both India and Germany without this meaning any loyalty or change in political dependency.
If China suffers from major political problems in its immediate surroundings—with Taiwan, which it considers part of its territory and has not yet been able to annex; with nearby Vietnam; then the problems of the islands with several countries; and that its relations close to loyalty are almost limited to North Korea—then China certainly does not aspire or plan to establish political loyalty for itself in the Arab region, especially since it knows the intensity of the rulers' connection to America and Britain. For all of this, the Chinese President's visit, the holding of these summits, and the signing of economic agreements, no matter their value, have nothing to do, near or far, with political dependency. It is a matter of open economic relations between countries and should only be viewed from its economic angle. Any political implications it may contain have nothing to do with the region or the political dependency of its rulers. For example, China's criticism of Iran is considered an alignment with the Western position and proof that China does not sing outside the global flock that criticizes Iran, and it is not followed by any Chinese political intervention with the Gulf states against Iran. Likewise, the inclusion of implicit criticism of Russia in the final statement, such as respect for state sovereignty, non-use of force, and respect for good neighborliness, is considered one of the increasing signs that China is not allied with Russia in its war on Ukraine and that it is pursuing a peaceful diplomatic approach in its relations with the world.
China is approaching the Gulf region economically because it fears—and strongly so—that America and Europe will cut Chinese industrial chains, especially the export chains to Western markets. What is being circulated today regarding the strategic error of heavy reliance on Russian energy resources in Europe is exactly what is coming regarding the West's heavy reliance on Chinese manufacturing chains. Strong indications of this have appeared; German Foreign Minister Baerbock said: (Germany's experience with Russia has shown "that we can no longer allow ourselves to become existentially dependent on any country that does not share our values. Complete economic dependence based on the principle of hope leaves us open to political blackmail." Al-Mayadeen, 2022/11/02). German Chancellor Scholz wrote an article in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on the eve of his departure from Beijing, in which he said (that Germany must change its "approach" to China, which "is heading towards a Marxist-Leninist political approach." He went on to say that German companies must take steps to "reduce their dangerous dependence" on the Chinese supply chain, Asharq Al-Awsat, 2022/11/04). In this context, and in an attempt to prevent this, China is taking preventive measures to prevent its supply chains to the West from being subjected to what happened to Russia's chains, especially regarding energy. The following preventive actions by China have appeared so far:
a- Separating itself from Russia: If China had hoped that Russian President Putin would succeed in imposing a fait accompli in Ukraine and the larger global role for Russia that would follow, China's position was ambiguous at the beginning of the Russian war on Ukraine. However, the very large American and European support for Ukraine gave it the strength to persevere. At that point, China began to distance itself from Russia and increased its implicit criticism of it. This was noted after the last conference of the Chinese Communist Party (October 2022) and President Xi Jinping's total control over the reins of power and the removal of his opponents from the party's Political Bureau. Since then, China has increased its distance from a reckless Russia. China cannot afford for America and European countries to cut Chinese industrial chains as they cut Russian energy chains, and China has taken this into account.
b- Alignment with Western positions: China has begun to declare its commitment and adherence to the (American) international order and criticizes what the West criticizes, such as Iran's interference in the affairs of the Gulf states. By this, China wants to tell the West that it is one of the "civilized" countries of the world that rejects the barbaric policies of some countries. We may witness an increase in these Chinese positions in the coming days, including distancing itself from any military escalation with Taiwan and demanding that America ease its escalation, as well as helping to resolve the nuclear crisis surrounding North Korea. All of this aims to stop the American and European policy of cutting industrial supply chains from China.
c- Increasing interest in economic alternatives: China views the markets of Arab countries as an alternative, albeit still insignificant, to Western markets. This means that in the event of cutting (or reducing) Chinese supply chains with America and Europe, the Arab markets could constitute a kind of alternative, even if it remains marginal compared to the American and Western markets. If this is coupled with the markets of Africa and Latin America, the Chinese economy will have found a vent in case of suffocation due to the new trends in America and Europe to reduce their dependence on China.
As for the economic aspect for the Arab countries, these summits, whether Gulf or Arab, can be viewed as follows:
a- After decades of the failure of comprehensive rule in Arab countries, these countries have become like dry forests waiting for someone to light a match. Some of these countries pay more than half of the taxes collected as interest on their usurious loans; their currencies have begun to collapse significantly, and prices have risen sharply as a result of their failed economic policies and the depth of their dependency on the West, which threatens to ignite protests. Almost all Arab countries, with the exception of the Gulf states, suffer from acute economic problems. This reality makes these rulers look to China as a potential economic savior. From China, they can take more loans and avoid some of the harsh conditions of the International Monetary Fund. China, through its large external projects, can establish huge investments in these countries, providing benefits and gains for the rulers and their cronies due to the rampant government corruption in the corridors of the rulers.
b- As for America, its economic problems have made it rely on its agents/clients more heavily, such as the legendary arms contracts signed by the Trump administration with Saudi Arabia. It even pressures the clients of others for its own economic benefit, as was the case with the pressure from America's clients on Qatar—a client of the British—until the Qatari funds invested in America became a lifebuoy for its rulers to stay in power. Indeed, US President Trump demanded that the rulers in the region pay for American protection. Because these rulers suffer from major problems, America either pushes them or does not object to their economic orientation toward China. Perhaps America is planning today to exhaust the Chinese economy with economic aid provided to America's clients in the region as part of its policy to stop China's rise. This means that Chinese-Arab economic cooperation and partnerships do not in any way constitute a threat to the loyalty of these rulers.
Through all of this, China's goals from these summits become clear; they are primarily economic goals. China is not competing with America and Europe for political influence in the Arab region; its capabilities and will are weaker than that. In fact, it cannot even settle political influence in its favor in its immediate surroundings in East Asia. China wants, through these summits and the economic partnership agreements it signs, for the artery of the Arab region to continue supporting its economy, whether energy resources from the Gulf or the markets of Arab countries for its industries. It exploits these and other occasions to say that it is part of the civilized world, and also to say that it is not part of the camp of countries that the West calls "rogue states" like North Korea and Iran, and it does not want to be hit by the international isolation that is today tightening around Russia's neck, threatening to choke it. China also wants to have established economic relations with the Arab region, Africa, and Latin America to collectively be an alternative to Western markets if Western pressure on China intensifies and Western countries cut industrial supply chains with it. China is trying to avoid this or mitigate it through a policy of softening towards the West and through a policy that is taking shape: distancing itself from Russia.
It should be noted that the "Arab leaders" did not think, during these summits, to raise China's brutal actions against Muslims in the Xinjiang region (East Turkestan) in their "friendly" talks with the Chinese President. It was not discussed as if it did not exist! If this indicates anything, it indicates the extreme betrayal of these Arab rulers and their extreme weakness, and that the affairs of the Muslims do not concern them. The central issue for all these rulers is to preserve the throne in light of the raging state of hostility from their peoples against them, and in light of the total failure of all their policies and their inability to deal with any issue that touches people's lives. The talk was instead focused on economic relations and international trade, as if China's crimes against the Uyghur Muslims were in another world!
The rulers of the Arabs today, and indeed the rulers of the Muslims, are in their worst state since the destruction of the Khilafah. It is a state that foretells their near annihilation. The volume of destruction wrought by their hands in coordination with America and Europe, and even with China, is so immense that they are floundering in dealing with it, far from achieving any success that justifies their continued rule. The degree of failure is what distinguishes one ruler from another... this is on top of the wrath of Allah the Almighty upon them, for they have left their Islam behind their backs, fought those working to resume the Islamic way of life on earth, and followed the command of every colonialist kaffir tyrant, as if they were struck by a covering:
أَمْوَاتٌ غَيْرُ أَحْيَاءٍ وَمَا يَشْعُرُونَ أَيَّانَ يُبْعَثُونَ
"They are dead, not alive, and they do not perceive when they will be resurrected." (QS. An-Nahl [16]: 21)
22nd Jumada al-Ula 1444 AH 2022/12/16 CE