Question:
Violent demonstrations broke out in northern Kosovo, carried out by the region's Serbs against the police and NATO forces. Serbia subsequently placed its forces on high alert for the possibility of entering the region to defend the Serbian minority. A report published by National Interest, cited by Al Jazeera, warned that the next European war might begin in Kosovo. The report stated that there are "remarkable similarities between the situation in Kosovo and the current conflict in Ukraine," calling on Western policymakers to pay attention to this matter. It said the recent crisis in northern Kosovo reminded the world that "the brutal war in Ukraine may be the biggest threat to European stability currently, but it is by no means the only one"... (Source: Al Jazeera + National Interest 10/06/2023)
What is behind these events? Are they as dangerous as suggested by international officials’ statements that they could explode the Balkan region and occupy European countries with a second war added to the war in Ukraine?
Answer:
To clarify the dimensions of the tensions occurring today in northern Kosovo, we review the following points:
First: Historical Background
After the Ottoman Islamic conquests of the Balkan region during the 15th century AD, Islam began to make its way into a region that the Roman state had made purely Christian. The Albanians—the people of today's Albania and the Kosovo region—embraced Islam, followed by the Bosnians, the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which declared independence from Yugoslavia in 1992. Subsequently, a war of genocide broke out in which thousands of Muslims were killed.
Kosovo remained part of the Ottoman State until it left in 1912 within the framework of separatist nationalist tendencies stirred by Britain across the Balkan region. Many kingdoms then vied for control over Kosovo, such as Serbia, Montenegro, and Italian colonialism, which annexed it into its influence within the Kingdom of Albania that it colonized. Then, in 1946, the President of Yugoslavia, Tito, annexed it to his country as part of the post-World War II settlements and granted it autonomy. It remained within Yugoslavia until the latter disintegrated in the early nineties, leaving Kosovo with Serbia—the last remnant of Yugoslavia. To prevent its independence, the notorious Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic ruled it with an iron fist and revoked its autonomous status. Numerous disturbances broke out after the referendum on its independence in 1990, and the unrest, violence, and killings continued until 1999. As a result of international circumstances, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intervened and bombed Serbia until it forced it to withdraw from the Kosovo region. Since that date, NATO forces in Kosovo have been the military force guaranteeing peace in the area.
In 2008, Kosovo officially declared its independence from Serbia. It was recognized by many countries, led by America and most European countries, while Russia and Serbia strongly opposed this independence. Opposition from Russia and China prevented Kosovo from joining many international organizations. Finally, on 19/03/2023, within the framework of incentives for joining the European Union and countering Russia after its war on Ukraine, the European Union announced an agreement between Serbia and Kosovo to normalize relations between them, though this did not mean Serbian recognition of Kosovo's independence. This agreement was intended to open the door for both Serbia and Kosovo to join the European Union.
Second: The Local and International Circumstances Preceding the Current Events
Serbia is considered Russia's last bastion of influence in Eastern Europe. Russia has supported it throughout its years of conflict with NATO. In fact, NATO's intervention in 1999 to sever Kosovo from Serbia was a severe blow to Russia's last influence in the Balkans, as it demonstrated Russia's weakness and inability to support its followers. However, Russia continued to show strong support for Serbia, providing it with weapons and political support in international organizations, strongly declaring its opposition to Kosovo's independence, and announcing economic projects to support Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It strengthened the relationship between the churches of the two countries and established a large media center for the Sputnik agency in Belgrade, which became a center for fueling tension and showcasing Russian support for the Serbs. Serbian leaders are keen to take photos with Russian President Putin to gain popularity in Serbia before elections. Overall, Russia has significant influence within Serbia and among Serbs in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
After Russia ignited the war in Ukraine and saw the Western powers mobilize against it, the West increased its courting of Serbia. This included sponsoring the agreement between Serbia and Kosovo to normalize relations (March 2023) and opening the way for Serbia’s accession to the European Union, and perhaps NATO in the future. This is similar to the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO in terms of increasing Russia's international losses due to its war in Ukraine. A significant rapprochement appeared between Serbia and the West. In June 2022, European countries prevented Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov from crossing their airspace to visit Serbia. This was provocative for Serbia; the Serbian Interior Minister stated: "Serbia is the only one in Europe that did not impose sanctions on Russia and did not join the anti-Russian hysteria" (Youm7, 22/08/2022). This statement reeks of the weight Serbia feels due to its relations with Russia, especially as Western horizons have begun to open for it. Indeed, putting Serbia on the Western track may have achieved further results; Sky News Arabia published on 04/03/2023: "Russia demanded an official explanation on Thursday from its ally Serbia regarding reports that the Balkan country delivered thousands of missiles to Ukraine. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova expressed 'deep concern' over the reports, which were first mentioned in pro-government Russian media last month." Despite Serbia's denial of involvement in the Ukraine conflict, these positions highlight that Serbia has begun to carve its path away from Russia, even if that path still has gaps and obstacles.
Faced with this new reality of relations between Russia and Serbia after the war in Ukraine, Russia—which possesses extensive influence within Serbia—has begun to use its local tools among the Serbs to stir tension and attempt to stop the process of pulling Serbia away from its international influence. The President of Kosovo "accused Russia of having a 'destructive interest' in the region, including attacking Kosovo, Bosnia, and Montenegro" (Independent Arabia, 22/12/2022). According to the same source, the Washington Post wrote that the Russian war on Ukraine triggered wider tensions in the region, quoting analysts that Russia's nationalist rhetoric found resonance with some leaders, including Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. The Wall Street Journal also mentioned at the time that NATO and the European Union rushed to calm the tension between Kosovo and Serbia after the recent escalation, amid fears that Russia would move to employ the conflict between the two countries to destabilize Europe.
Ivana Stradner from the American Enterprise Institute had warned before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine that Russia was determined to create chaos in the Balkans. In an article titled "Russia is Playing with Fire in the Balkans" published by Foreign Affairs and quoted by Independent Arabia on 20/04/2022, she said: "I do not rule out that the Balkan region will become a new theater in which Russia challenges the European Union and NATO, in order to prove that they are paper tigers..." (Independent Arabia, 20/02/2022). Accordingly, it is likely that Russia is the one stirring the conflict in Kosovo to divert attention from the weakness shown in its war in Ukraine, to occupy the hostile European countries with another war in Europe, and to halt the march of removing Serbia from its influence.
Third: The Reality of Recent Events
The Serbs inside Kosovo number no more than 120,000 out of approximately two million residents of the region. One-third of the Serbs are concentrated in four border towns with Serbia, which are the focus of the recent conflict. In these four towns (50,000 people), where Serbs make up 90% of the population, the authority of the state belonging to Pristina, the capital of Kosovo, has become increasingly weak. The police cannot deal with crime or arrest criminals for ethnic reasons, as they are accused of targeting Serbs. Serbs in these towns have begun rioting on an ethnic basis and demanding to join Serbia, which imposes consequences on the other side of the border for its people to defend the Serbs in Kosovo.
To assert its control over those towns, the Kosovo government issued laws in August 2022 to mandate the carrying of its identity cards and car license plates in northern Kosovo. This led to mass resignations of mayors and police of Serbian origin in November 2022, and protests swept the north of the country. Then the Kosovo government held local elections in April 2023, which the Serbs refused to participate in, resulting in the victory of Muslim candidates. The Serbs in these towns revolted because they did not want their mayors to be Albanian Muslims (Kosovars). Riots spread, including road closures, until the Kosovo government found itself forced to enforce security. The police provided security for the inauguration of the new mayors. The Serbs rushed to occupy the buildings but found the Kosovo police standing in their way. Shortly before that, the President of Serbia had placed his country's army on high alert, indicating the possibility of military intervention.
As for Russia, it was pouring oil on the fire and showing great support for the Serbs. The spokeswoman for its Foreign Ministry said before the outbreak of the 29/05/2023 demonstrations: "Russia decisively condemns Kosovo's provocative steps that have brought the situation to the brink of a 'hot phase,' adding that the responsibility for the provocation against Serbia lies with the United States and the European Union" (Youm7, 28/05/2023). After the demonstrations, "Sergey Lavrov said that rising tensions in Kosovo could lead to a 'huge explosion' in the heart of Europe. The Russian Foreign Minister told reporters on Monday that the situation is 'alarming' and warned of a major volcano erupting in the Balkans" (Sawt Al-Khaleej, 30/05/2023). Also, "Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed that 'the Serbs are fighting for their rights in northern Kosovo,' explaining that the army is on alert and 'the decision will be made by the Serbian President'" (Independent Arabia, 30/05/2023).
Regarding America, its position is hardly different from the European one. A joint statement was issued, signed by America, Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, calling for immediate measures to stop the escalation in the north of the region (British Government Website, 26/05/2023). Britain had been keen, within the framework of NATO, to have the leadership of the largest central sector in the capital region "Pristina" after the NATO intervention in 1999. It was the first NATO country to appoint an ambassador to Pristina after the declaration of independence (Radio Sawa, 21/02/2008). America appointed its ambassador five months later (Youm7, 19/07/2008). Blinken considered that the Pristina authorities' decision to use force to ensure the mayors in the north reached the administrative headquarters "led to a sharp and unjustified escalation of tension" (RT, 31/05/2023). Furthermore, "US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo to reduce tension, warning that they are threatening hopes of joining Europe. Blinken told reporters during NATO talks in Oslo yesterday, Thursday: 'We call on the governments of Kosovo and Serbia to take immediate measures to de-escalate tension'..." (Al Jazeera Net, 02/06/2023).
Due to these Western positions, it is likely that the situation is moving toward cooling down. After the firm positions shown by Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, he began to show flexibility. "Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti said he seeks to defend all Kosovo Serbs, stressing that it is their right to make their voices heard through peaceful means. He added that authority in Kosovo can be obtained through elections and not violence. Kurti suggested holding new elections for mayors in an attempt to stop the spread of violence that occurred recently in the north of the country" (Al Jazeera Net, 02/06/2023). At the same time, French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz pressured the President of Kosovo during a summit in Moldova to hold a meeting with the President of Serbia to ease tension.
From all this, it is clear that Russia, in addition to using its influence in Serbia, is indeed capable of stirring tension in the Kosovo region and has many tools in Serbia and among the region's Serbs. It wants to create a focal point of tension to hide its apparent weakness in the Ukraine war and wants to stop the removal of Serbia from its influence. The statements of its officials, by showing intense support for the Serbs, were pouring oil on the fire to ignite war in Kosovo. However, the European countries and America were working to extinguish the fire as soon as it broke out, and America and the EU countries were very keen on quickly suppressing the flames.
Fourth: Conclusion
The conclusion is that Russia is not far from the tensions in Kosovo created by Kosovo's Serbs and consequently the mobilization of Serbia. Russia hoped these tensions would occupy the West, given that NATO is present in Kosovo, and thus these fires would ignite between the Serbs and Kosovo with the West and NATO in the middle. Russia expected this to reduce the continued escalation by America and the Atlantic in the war between Russia and Ukraine. It seems that America and the West realized this issue and exerted effort to calm things between the Serbs and Kosovo, waving the possibility of joining the European Union and later NATO if they cooperate in suppressing these tensions. It appears America and the West have succeeded in this, as indicated by the statements of officials, especially from America and Kosovo.
This is what we weigh regarding the background of these events, their course, and their results as explained above.
Finally, as we mentioned, Kosovo was part of the Ottoman State and its people embraced Islam long ago. If the Muslims did not lack the Khilafah State that protects them from the evils of the disbelieving colonialists, the course of events would not be in the hands of those disbelieving colonialist countries that control the land after the banner of Islam used to flutter over the Balkans and Kosovo...
We ask Allah (swt) to relieve the distress of the Ummah of Islam and that it returns to the source of its glory by establishing the Khilafah once again.
وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ
"And on that day the believers will rejoice in the victory of Allah. He gives victory to whom He wills, and He is the All-Mighty, the All-Merciful." (QS. Ar-Rum [30]: 4-5)
22nd of Dhu al-Qi'dah 1444 AH 11/06/2023 CE