Answer to a Question
Developments in Tunisia
Certain recent events in Tunisia have raised questions about whether Tunisia's current international subservience is on the verge of change. Among these events are the following:
Tunisian media circles, particularly the newspapers "Tunis News" and "Al-Wasat al-Tunisia," have reported that Zine El Abidine Ben Ali has been diagnosed with terminal prostate cancer and has secretly traveled to Europe for treatment.
In August 2005, the Tunisian diplomat Kamal Morjane, who worked for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, was appointed as the Tunisian Minister of Defense. After assuming office, Morjane launched an accelerated diplomatic campaign, which included signing significant agreements with the United States.
In February 2006, Donald Rumsfeld visited the Maghreb countries, including Tunisia, and Kamal Morjane visited America in the same year.
In 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy, the new French President—known for his proximity to America—made his first visit outside Europe to the Maghreb countries.
Last June, a US Congressional delegation visited Tunisia.
In late June, a group of leaders from the Tunisian Ennahda Movement was released from prison.
Recently, the Vice Commander of the US European Command, Admiral Edmund Giambastiani, visited Tunisia and met with senior Tunisian officials, followed by a visit from a delegation of American officers.
Does all this mean that America has begun to establish a foothold in Tunisia?
The Answer:
To clarify the answer, we mention the following:
1- Tunisia is one of the regions targeted for the struggle for influence between colonial powers due to its strategic location and special characteristics. Additionally, it is considered one of the political laboratories for Western countries. It fell under British influence after the departure of the French military occupation.
After Habib Bourguiba was ousted in 1987, as he had become elderly and incapable of governance, he was succeeded by Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Like his predecessor, Ben Ali maintained absolute subservience to the British without hesitation.
2- America exploited the tension in relations between Tunisia and Libya in 1988, attempting to exercise pressure and enticement on Ben Ali to penetrate Tunisia. It provided generous security assistance to Tunisia worth $61 million under the slogan of "deterring aggression." The intent was to entice the Tunisian president to open a front against Colonel Gaddafi and stand with America against his regime. However, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali soon revealed his true colors, turned his back on America, and improved his relations with Gaddafi. Consequently, America reduced its support for Tunisia to a mere $8 million. Thus, America failed to penetrate Ben Ali's loyalty to Britain; rather, he continued in the same manner as his predecessor, Bourguiba.
3- America made several efforts in December 1994 through the "Mediterranean Dialogue" under the umbrella of NATO, which it managed to use very effectively after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is worth noting that this "Dialogue" includes Algeria, Egypt, (Israel), Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia, even though they are not members of NATO.
4- In contrast, the European Union, during the Barcelona meeting in November 1995, gathered EU member states and Mediterranean countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, and the Palestinian Authority) through the "EUROMED" project. The EU spent nine billion euros on this project between 1995 and 2000. Later, a forum was established between five Southern European countries (France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Malta) and five North African countries, including the Maghreb states (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, and Mauritania), known as the (5+5) dialogue. This forum focused its efforts on combating terrorism and illegal migration. This prevented America from influencing the region again. For example, only 2% of American foreign trade and less than 1% of American foreign investment involve this region.
5- During this period, Zine El Abidine's regime also managed to repel former US President Bill Clinton’s attempt to penetrate Tunisian walls in 1995. At that time, Assistant Secretary of State Robert Pelletreau failed during his visit to Tunisia to integrate the Tunisian regime into the systems that agreed to follow American security projects in North Africa.
6- In 2000, when the US administration changed, the American view toward the region became more aggressive. Pressure increased to implement reforms presented to the region’s countries through the "Greater Middle East Project." Despite this, America was unable to achieve tangible results.
7- The first success for America in partially penetrating the formidable Tunisian security barrier occurred after the September 11 attacks in 2001. Talk of establishing American military bases became common. The Wall Street Journal published a report on June 10, 2003, stating that officials in the Defense Department were considering the possibility of establishing "semi-permanent" military bases in Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco. This was part of major planned shifts in the "global positioning of US forces," including plans to reduce the number of US troops in Germany and move them elsewhere.
Tunisian opposition circles abroad confirmed these reports, stating that an American base was intended for the Bizerte region, with part of it in Sidi Ahmed to be used as an airbase and another part in Bachater to be used as a naval base.
In recent years, Tunisia has participated in periodic security meetings with other North African countries and America, with the declared goal of combating terrorism and pursuing Al-Qaeda militants in North Africa.
America also exerted further pressure on Tunisia's rulers to provide support in Iraq. A report issued on December 30, 2003, by the US Council on Foreign Relations titled "Africa: Terrorist Sanctuaries" listed Tunisia alongside Egypt and Algeria as countries representing a medium-term threat for the development of terrorist threats.
The visits by members of Congress and American officials in the last two years fall within this context—using pressure and enticement for the sake of penetration.
Despite this, these American pressures have not succeeded in dragging Tunisia into alignment with America. Rather, these moves are nothing more than a tactic in the British style: avoiding open confrontation with America while practically obstructing it from behind the scenes.
The British realize America's serious interest in Tunisia, and indeed in all of North Africa. Therefore, just as the British arranged the transfer of power from Bourguiba to his confidant Zine El Abidine, they are now pre-arranging the potential transfer of power from Zine El Abidine to a successor who will continue the subservience to the British. At the same time, they present this designated successor as someone who is not provocative or hostile toward America, thereby blocking the path for increasing American pressure on Tunisia. Thus, Britain chose Kamal Morjane to soothe American pressure, considering that this man is more acceptable to America than Zine El Abidine. It should be noted that Ben Ali's illness is not "terminal" yet, and the possibility of him remaining until the end of his term in 2009 is plausible. However, the purpose of waving Kamal Morjane as a successor is to calm American pressure. This is a British tactic according to their traditional method of stabilizing their influence in a country when they notice pressure upon it. It is similar to what they did to preserve the Libyan regime; when American pressure increased, Britain instructed Libya to bow to America, abandon its weapons programs, and surrender in the Lockerbie case while paying the required compensation... all of this to strip America of excuses to continue its pressure on Gaddafi, or at least to calm it.
This promotion of Kamal Morjane as the successor to the ailing Zine El Abidine—whose time is supposedly short, especially since Britain exaggerated news of his illness as if he were in his final throes—is for the aforementioned purpose of preempting American pressure. To understand this well, we note some information about Kamal Morjane, who holds the Ministry of Defense:
Kamal Morjane is a capable diplomat.
Despite his fame resulting from his international positions, his active membership in the ruling party is not prominent.
He has ties of kinship and tribal relations with the current head of state, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Both are from the city of Hammam Sousse. Kamal Morjane's wife is the niece of Zine El Abidine. Ben Ali, known for his fox-like guile and steeped in British political malice, trusts Morjane; hence, he entrusted him with a vital position: Minister of Defense.
Due to the international assignments he held for many years, he gained fame and a prestigious status in the international community.
Due to his distance from internal Tunisian state policies, his name has not been tarnished by the regime's crimes against the country and its people, despite his defense of Tunisia in his speeches, especially those delivered at the United Nations. Therefore, from this perspective, he can be easily accepted both internationally and locally.
Thus, the notion that Kamal Morjane can be swayed by America is highly unlikely.
It has been recently observed that Kamal Morjane is doing everything in his power to use every available means to promote himself to the powers he believes might oppose him, so they accept him, his expertise, his international standing, and his internal influence. The political offensive Morjane has initiated is full of reassuring messages about his persona—that he will not work against the international community and specifically American interests—hoping thereby to neutralize America from acting against him or placing obstacles in his path.
This is regarding Kamal Morjane.
As for Sarkozy, whose first visit outside Europe was to the Maghreb, his visit showed no significant impact on changing the authority in Tunisia. He focused his visit on the "Mediterranean Union" to the extent that Morocco refused Sarkozy's visit, citing flimsy excuses. It is most likely that his visit was for the purpose of strengthening French cultural influence rather than exercising political influence over the Tunisian regime. It is an extension of Sarkozy's tours in areas of British influence, coordinated with the British themselves, much like his visit to Libya a while ago.
Regarding the release of 21 political detainees at the end of last July, following Sarkozy’s remarks during his visit to Tunisia about human rights and political detainees: these prisoners were released on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Tunisian Republic. Linking the release to that occasion distances it from being a result of Sarkozy's visit. In any case, the political utility of the release is closer to "harmonizing" with American calls for human rights, reform, and democracy than being a response to Sarkozy, with the exception of the release of human rights defender and lawyer Mohamed Abbou. Sarkozy had addressed this specific issue during his meeting with Ben Ali. As for the other twenty who were released, they are members of the Ennahda Movement. They were released under restrictions imposed by the Tunisian Ministry of Justice.
In conclusion: We can say that Kamal Morjane was brought to the Ministry of Defense "early" by British instructions to soothe American pressure on the regime and to be prepared, when necessary, to take over the presidency without facing any internal or external surprises or obstacles. This is like "cooking the feast on a very low fire."
Nonetheless, one can conclude that reforms are expected in Tunisia in "harmony" with American desires, even if they are not entirely satisfactory to them, in addition to taking progressive steps regarding human rights and the like. However, it is far too early to say that America has established influence in Tunisia or is on the verge of doing so. Tunisia’s loyalty remains guaranteed to the British and the Europeans. The Tunisian security wall remains a solid defensive line against American attempts at penetration. As long as the military and security apparatus remains cohesive under the leadership of British agents, it will be difficult for American attempts to break that resistant wall to succeed.
21 Sha'ban 1428 AH 03 September 2007