Question:
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump once again spoke about his recent visit to France... (Trump said in an interview with the New York Times that Macron is a "great person, smart and strong, and loves to hold my hand," adding that "people don't realize how much he loves to hold my hand...") (Al Arabiya.net - Washington, AFP, 2017/07/20). President Trump had visited Paris on 2017/7/13, where he was warmly received by the current President Macron, whereas the former French President Hollande had shown his resentment toward the US President. Similarly, European leaders were heavily leveling accusations against President Trump! So, what are the implications of this US-French rapprochement and the goals of Trump's visit to Paris? Furthermore, does this visit have any impact on the situation in Syria, especially since French President Macron is talking about a new French-American strategy in Syria?
Answer:
Trump's blundering in international politics has led to notably turbulent results. For instance, his shocking statements regarding the utility of NATO led to harsh reactions against American policy, the most famous of which came from Berlin. Furthermore, during his election campaign and after his inauguration on 2017/1/20, Trump did not hide his resentment toward the European Union; he praised the British Brexit referendum, and the US ambassador-nominee to Brussels predicted the imminent disintegration of the EU. America stood by, waiting for the Dutch and French elections in the hope that anti-EU candidates would win, thereby achieving the dismantling of the Union during 2017. This is what Europe stood guard against, succeeding in preventing the British "domino effect" from reaching the Netherlands and France, thus warding off the ghost of their Union's disintegration.
Adding to his international political blundering is his reversal of decisions. Trump’s shifting views on NATO—describing it as "obsolete" and then publicly retracting those stances; his withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and then offering to renegotiate it; standing on the brink of war with North Korea and then pulling back; his negative view of China followed by standing with it to wait for results on the North Korean file; and his strong statements on the Syrian arena followed by leaving matters to run their course in Astana and Geneva.
Likewise, his internal situation is unstable, especially regarding the opposition's outcry over his policy concerning Russian support for him during the elections. These problems and that opposition resulted in the contacts of the President and members of his administration with Russia becoming a highly sensitive matter in America. This situation did not help the President achieve a Russian-American agreement; the agreement was delayed, and Trump held only one meeting with the Russian President on the sidelines of the G20 summit in the German city of Hamburg on 2017/7/7. In fact, US-Russian relations became more complex at a time when Congress was imposing additional sanctions on Russia, in addition to increasing American reports about Russian interference in the elections, which increased the President's internal embarrassment—to say nothing of his embarrassment in proceeding to repair his country's relations with Moscow.
All of this created a rift in international politics between America and the EU countries. This rift fluctuated between positive and negative according to the interests of these countries and their ability to exploit the new situation in American policy. We will review the positions of the relevant countries toward Trump's policy and then address the significance of the French position that led to the invitation of Trump to visit Paris and his warm reception:
As for Britain, Prime Minister Theresa May's early visit to Washington on 2017/1/26 and her rush to sign a trade agreement with Washington was intended to be a model for the rest of the Union countries to encourage their departure from it. Thus, Britain reaffirmed its attachment to America and was very optimistic about the Trump administration. However, after the waning of American hopes for the disintegration of the EU—manifested by the victory of pro-Europeans in the Dutch and French elections—Trump's positive view of Britain receded. He wanted Britain to lead the march toward dismantling Europe, and when the London Brexit was not repeated in Paris and Amsterdam, America went back to encroaching on Britain's international interests in a way that shocked London. America is pushing its agent, Sisi, to further support Haftar without regard for British interests in Libya, and America pushed its agents in a near-shocking manner to pressure Qatar, which represents Britain's spearhead in the Arab and Islamic region. Due to this and other factors, Britain's policy became confused, and it lost its confidence in Trump's America, finding itself between the hammer of America on one side and the anvil of Europe, with which it is negotiating to leave the Union, on the other. Faced with these wide doubts, the British Prime Minister announced early elections, which was a surprise even to members of her cabinet. With the programmed result of the 2017/6/8 elections, Britain wavered between leaving the EU or returning to it, as the elections showed that supporters of leaving are increasingly weak, reinforcing the possibility of staying if its negotiations with Brussels do not produce a satisfactory agreement. This illustrates how the new American policy has confused Britain.
On a more important side, the Russian side, European orientations were aligned with American ones after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its ignition of eastern Ukraine. American and European sanctions reflected a consensus of visions regarding the European fear of Putin destroying borders in Eastern Europe. However, since his campaign, Trump had been criticizing those sanctions and promising to build close relations with Russia, which confused Europe by leaving it alone to face Russia's new rise. Despite the European leaders' realization that America, during the Obama administration, was the one that allowed Russia's rise—especially after involving it in the Syrian war—Trump threatened to go far in a bilateral agreement with Russia on global issues, which could destroy European hopes for a role in international crises.
As for Germany, its orientations were decisive in opposing the new American policy. It rejected American criticism of European NATO countries, resented that Germany and Europe should be indebted to America in defense matters, denounced America's withdrawal from the Climate Agreement and refused any new negotiations regarding it, and criticized the arms deals Trump concluded with Saudi Arabia, considering them as pouring oil on the fire in an inflamed region. It remained so despite the emergence of a change in the French position. According to a Deutsche Welle evening broadcast, "Chancellor Merkel's positions were harsh toward the American President during the G20 summit in Germany, but the French President was keen not to anger Trump" (Deutsche Welle, 2017/7/14). In general, it can be said that Germany has significantly increased its attempts to revive itself as a great power, all in response to the new American policies.
Next, we address the significance of Trump's visit to France and the apparent US-French rapprochement, as well as France's goals in inviting President Trump to visit and participate in its National Day on 2017/7/13. France highlighted what it called the centenary of America's participation in World War I—an old event rarely commemorated with such celebrations except for specific purposes. While President Trump was straining relations with all of Europe, France extended an invitation to him! The Elaph newspaper website stated: "Macron renewed his invitation to Trump during a phone call on Tuesday to visit France and participate in the National Day. Macron first extended the invitation to Trump during a NATO summit at the end of last May in Brussels" (Elaph website, 2017/6/28). At the recently held G20 summit in Germany on 2017/7/7, President Macron surrounded him with warmth to break the isolation he appeared in among the leaders, especially the Europeans, who directed harsh criticism at America, particularly due to its withdrawal from the Climate Agreement. Even Trump himself was surprised by Macron's invitation in this atmosphere: "Trump said he was 'surprised' to receive this invitation after his decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, which was signed by 195 countries in 2014" (Al Arabiya.net, 2017/07/20).
Regarding the goals of this new French orientation, it must be emphasized that France—the cornerstone of the EU—was one of the European countries most critical of Trump and most fearful of his policy's impact on US-European relations. This was not limited to the former French President Hollande; the current President Macron also voiced significant criticism of Trump from his campaign until recently. This French pivot toward America emerged only weeks ago and became clearly visible in the invitation of President Trump and his warm, respectful reception. By studying this pivot, it is likely that it has two dimensions, neither less important than the other:
The first dimension relates to the Syrian aspect of this French pivot. After Macron announced that "he sees no legitimate alternative to Bashar, and that France no longer sees Bashar's departure as a condition for a settlement" (Reuters, 2017/6/21), Macron said later and just before receiving the American President: "We have changed France's doctrine on Syria to reach a comprehensive political solution, and we will not make Bashar's departure a condition for that" (Asharq Al-Awsat, 2017/7/13). Thus, France is drawing closer to America, which holds the card of the regime and many of the factions in Syria. This rapprochement is so that it can have a role in Syria, which it has longed for... it knows it will not get a whiff of this role without a pass from America. And so it was; this warm reception for Trump and the lack of insistence on Bashar's departure is because it knows America does not want him to leave now until it arranges an alternative agent for the current agent, and America has not found one yet. Consequently, France began discarding its previous positions as obstacles hindering its participation. Likewise, its tone in "fighting terrorism" began to follow the same musical scale as Trump's. Therefore, President Emmanuel Macron said during a joint press conference with his American counterpart Donald Trump: "He agreed with President Trump to develop a roadmap for the post-war phase in Iraq and Syria. Macron added today, Thursday, in the French capital, that he also agreed with the American President to exert all efforts to combat (terrorism)..." (Russia Today, 2017/7/13).
The second dimension is France's fears of Germany's rising role. These fears have led France to provoke Germany; while Germany's criticism of Trump intensified, France courted him! In fact, immediately after the American President's visit to Paris, François Delattre, France's permanent representative to the UN, stated: "The contact group on Syria that Paris proposes to form must include the member states of the UN Security Council and regional actors. The diplomat confirmed to reporters before holding a closed-door session of the Security Council on Friday evening that the mentioned group must 'spread peace and prepare the roadmap.' The French representative added that the most important thing now is to unify the word of the international community and put forward new initiatives in support of the efforts of the International Special Envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura" (Russia Today, 2017/7/14). Thus, France is calling for the formation of a "contact group on Syria" to "include the member states of the Security Council and regional actors" and to "present a concrete initiative for the five countries to deal with." This excludes Germany from this role on the grounds that it is not on the Security Council, revealing French concerns about Germany's rise—it does not want a global role for it.
Thus, the turbulence of Trump's policy, and especially his visit to France, has created a change in international politics between America and the EU to the extent that some media outlets considered that visit as the beginning of a new world order: "The British Times newspaper considered the visit of US President Donald Trump to the French capital, Paris, as the beginning of a new world order, where French President Emmanuel Macron leads his country toward a new relationship with America and Germany. The newspaper saw that Macron presents himself as the de facto leader of the EU after Britain's exit. The European playing cards will be redistributed after Britain's exit, as the newspaper put it. The newspaper's editorial concluded that the EU was built in a way that allows neither Germany nor France to stand alone as the sole dominant power in it, noting that the two countries managed to overcome centuries of hostility and worked together to lead the European continent with or without Britain. But now they are swimming in opposite directions; France, under Macron's leadership, aspires to lead Europe, and Germany, under Merkel's leadership, wants to focus on keeping Europe intact and complete..." (Al-Wafd newspaper website, 2017/7/14).
But we conclude this answer by saying that France's dreams of entering the Syrian stage will not last long. They will clash with the reality of the American position, which accepts nothing but exclusivity over the Syrian crisis. The slight flexibility America shows toward French orientations for Syria is only to feed the French-German conflict, increasing the divergence within the EU to dismantle it.
As for France's fear of Germany's rise, it is a real fear. The components of the state in Germany exceed those in France; this is historically and geographically known. At the time when Germany rids itself of its current (moral) commitment to the Second World War agreements—which prevent it from an influential global military role and oblige it to focus only on industrial and economic influence without a warring military role—at the time it rids itself of that, it is likely that it will emerge in Europe again, surpassing France no matter how much the latter draws closer to America.
We ask Allah (swt) to make their strength against each other severe so that their structure collapses:
فَأَتَى اللَّهُ بُنْيَانَهُم مِّنَ الْقَوَاعِدِ فَخَرَّ عَلَيْهِمُ السَّقْفُ مِن فَوْقِهِمْ وَأَتَاهُمُ الْعَذَابُ مِنْ حَيْثُ لَا يَشْعُرُونَ
"But Allah struck at the foundations of their building, and then the roof fell down upon them from above them, and the punishment came to them from where they did not perceive." (Surah An-Nahl [16]: 26)
And may the Islamic State soon settle near their lands, spreading goodness throughout the world, and fulfilling the words of the Prophet (saw) in the Hadith narrated by Ahmad in his Musnad from Tamim ad-Dari, who said: I heard the Messenger of Allah (saw) say:
لَيَبْلُغَنَّ هَذَا الْأَمْرُ مَا بَلَغَ اللَّيْلُ وَالنَّهَارُ وَلَا يَتْرُكُ اللَّهُ بَيْتَ مَدَرٍ وَلَا وَبَرٍ إِلَّا أَدْخَلَهُ اللَّهُ هَذَا الدِّينَ بِعِزِّ عَزِيزٍ أَوْ بِذُلِّ ذَلِيلٍ عِزًّا يُعِزُّ اللَّهُ بِهِ الْإِسْلَامَ وَذُلًّا يُذِلُّ اللَّهُ بِهِ الْكُفْرَ
"This matter will certainly reach every place touched by the night and day, and Allah will not leave a house of mud or fur except that He will cause this Deen to enter it, by the honor of the honorable or the humiliation of the humiliated; an honor by which Allah honors Islam and a humiliation by which Allah humiliates Kufr (disbelief)."
Al-Bayhaqi in Al-Sunan al-Kubra and Al-Hakim in his Mustadrak narrated similar versions. This will be achieved with Allah's help and success, and that is not difficult for Allah.
29 Shawwal 1438 AH 2017/07/23 CE