Question:
On April 7, 2022, a Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council was formed in Saudi Arabia to replace President Hadi, who delegated his full powers to this council. Prior to this, on April 2, 2022, the warring parties agreed to a two-month truce in Yemen...
The question is: Was that truce a preparation for this council? What is its purpose? Furthermore, why do the Houthis refrain from supporting the council even though they agreed to the truce, and Iran also agreed?
Answer:
To clarify the answer to these questions, we review the following points:
First: The reality of the truce, the formation of the council, and its powers:
(Hans Grundberg, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen, announced that a two-month extendable truce in Yemen came into effect on the evening of Saturday, April 2, 2022, the first day of the month of Ramadan. The United Nations and the United States welcomed the sudden truce and called for its extension. Grundberg thanked the Houthis and the internationally recognized government for working with him "in good faith and for making the necessary concessions to reach this agreement." He considered that "the truce is but a first step that is long overdue." Grundberg stressed that he would continue to work during the two months "with the aim of reaching a permanent ceasefire." For his part, US President Joe Biden welcomed the truce on Friday, describing it as a "long-awaited reprieve for the Yemeni people," but he considered it "insufficient." British Prime Minister Boris Johnson welcomed the announcement on Friday and urged "working toward a lasting political solution." Johnson said via Twitter: "We now have a window of opportunity to finally bring peace and end humanitarian suffering"... France 24/AFP, April 2, 2022).
At the same time that talks about the truce were taking place, a conference was held in Riyadh on March 30, 2022, which lasted for a week and included about 800 Yemeni figures under Gulf sponsorship and foreign representatives from the UN, the US, the UK, and others. At its end, the Yemeni President residing in Riyadh, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, announced on April 7, 2022, the formation of a Presidential Leadership Council, delegating to it his full powers. He also dismissed his Vice President, Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar. Yemeni television broadcast Hadi’s announcement, in which he said: ("A Presidential Leadership Council shall be established under this declaration to complete the implementation of the tasks of the transitional period. I irrevocably delegate to the Presidential Leadership Council my full powers in accordance with the Constitution, the Gulf Initiative, and its executive mechanism." He also tasked it "to negotiate with the Houthis for a permanent ceasefire throughout the Republic and to sit at the negotiating table to reach a final and comprehensive political solution that includes a transitional phase that moves Yemen from a state of war to a state of peace"). Thus, the council is tasked with negotiating with the Houthis to find a final solution...
The powers of the Presidential Council include ("managing the state politically, militarily, and security-wise throughout the transitional period and adopting a balanced foreign policy that preserves the state's sovereignty and borders"). The powers specific to the head of the Presidential Council, Rashad Al-Alimi, include ("general command of the armed forces, representing the Republic internally and externally, appointing governors, security directors, Supreme Court judges, the governor of the Central Bank, establishing diplomatic missions, and declaring a state of emergency and general mobilization"... Al-Ain News, April 11, 2022). This council includes 8 members, including its head, Rashad Al-Alimi, a former Interior Minister and advisor to the Yemeni President. The membership includes Aidarus al-Zoubaidi, head of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), who is close to the UAE; Tariq Saleh, nephew of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who led the President's Special Guard during Ali Saleh's era; the Governor of Marib, Sultan Ali al-Arada, loyal to the Islah Party (Yemeni Congregation for Reform); Abdullah al-Alimi Bawazeer, loyal to this party and director of President Hadi's office; the Commander-in-Chief of the Giants Brigades, Abdulrahman Abu Zara'a al-Mahrami; the Governor of Hadramaut, Faraj al-Bahsani; and Othman Mujali, representative of Saada Governorate and a minister in the current government with the rank of deputy. It is noted that all members of the Presidential Leadership Council are supported by the UAE or are from President Hadi's own circle, making the effective voice in the council loyal to Britain. The council brought together representatives of Southern forces so that they would be partners in negotiations and in signing any agreement reached with the Houthis, leaving no one who could object in the future. It was also announced that the parliament's mandate would continue and confidence in the government of competencies would be renewed. It appears that the intention is for all parties to sign any upcoming agreement to grant the Houthi group legitimacy and make it part of the political and security structure in the country.
Second: International and regional reactions:
Saudi Arabia welcomed the truce and this decision and announced the provision of economic aid amounting to $3 billion, including $2 billion split equally between it and the UAE to support the Central Bank. Following that, on April 7, 2022, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ("received the head of the Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad Al-Alimi, and the members of the council, and expressed his support for him and his hope that its establishment would contribute to the start of a new page in Yemen that moves it from war to peace and development"... Al-Arabiya, April 7, 2022). Khalid bin Salman, Deputy Minister of Defense, said on his Twitter account on April 9, 2022: ("The courageous and historic step taken by Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi in transferring power to the Presidential Leadership Council, which was supported by Yemeni political and social elites and components and on which the international community reached a consensus to support, establishes an important and decisive stage for achieving peace, security, and stability for Yemen and the region." He added: "We emphasize the continuation of the Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen in supporting the council at all levels, including military support until a political solution is reached that ends the crisis"). Saudi Arabia wants to rid itself of the consequences of the war, which has cost it much and has shown it to be weak and incapable of achieving its goals. This council, formed by Hadi, although composed of British loyalists, has the purpose of negotiating with the Houthis and making concessions to ensure the success of the negotiations.
As for the UAE, it (welcomed the decision of the former Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi to form the Presidential Leadership Council to complete the implementation of the tasks of the transitional period... expressing its hope that this step would contribute to reaching a comprehensive political solution among the Yemeni parties... The UAE welcomed the call of the sisterly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the Presidential Leadership Council to start negotiating with the Houthis under the supervision of the United Nations to reach a final and comprehensive political solution that includes a transitional period, emphasizing the pivotal role played by the Kingdom in achieving stability and security for Yemen... Al-Arabiya, April 8, 2022).
As for the Houthi group, its position was evasive! It agreed to the truce and was an active element in it, and it received the UN Special Envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, in Sana'a for 3 days, during which he met with the leadership of the Political Council of the Ansar Allah (Houthi) group and discussed the implementation and stabilization of the truce. However, its position regarding the new Yemeni Leadership Council was different! The Houthi group announced its rejection of Hadi's recent decisions. Its spokesperson, Mohammed Abdulsalam, said on his Telegram account following that: (These measures taken by the aggression coalition have nothing to do with Yemen or its reconciliation and have no relation to peace, but rather push for escalation by regrouping scattered, conflicting militias into one framework that serves the interests of foreign powers and the aggression countries). An invitation had been extended to the Houthi group to participate in the conference, but they refused to attend because it was held in Saudi Arabia, requesting it be held in a neutral country. This means that the Houthi group will participate in future conferences and negotiate with the council, even if it currently rejects the decision regarding the formation of the council and its members. This refusal shows that its goal is to strengthen its position in future negotiations. They are directly linked to Iran, which sails in the orbit of America. They agreed to a two-month truce at the beginning of Ramadan, extendable, and this truce was designed as a preparation for that council and a prelude to negotiations!
Iran's position: (Tehran confirmed its welcome of the truce and the importance of conducting a Yemeni dialogue away from foreign interference. For his part, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that his country welcomes the ceasefire in Yemen and emphasizes the need to lift the siege on Yemenis and launch a Yemeni-Yemeni dialogue away from foreign interventions. The Iranian Foreign Minister added in a press conference with his Iraqi counterpart, Fuad Hussein, that his country emphasizes the importance of conducting regional dialogue among the countries of the region... Al Jazeera, April 14, 2022). The Houthis followed them in this..
America's position: The United States welcomed the announcement of the formation of the Presidential Leadership Council in Yemen:
A. (A statement by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: "The United States supports the aspirations of the Yemeni people for an effective, democratic, and transparent government that includes diverse voices from politicians and civil society," adding that most importantly, Yemenis deserve a government that protects rights and freedoms, alongside promoting justice, accountability, and reconciliation... April 8, 2022 https://sabq.org/)
B. US State Department spokesperson Ned Price wrote a statement via Twitter on April 8, 2022, saying: "The United States welcomes the announcement of the formation of a Presidential Leadership Council in Yemen."
C. The US Envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking, delivered an opening speech at the Riyadh conference on Yemen, saying: ("The United States supports the Yemeni parties reaching a comprehensive peaceful solution. The Yemeni consultations represent an international commitment to making conditions more stable"... DPA, March 30, 2022). The US Envoy said at the conclusion of the conference: ("The United States looks forward to Iran playing a positive role and changing its approach in Yemen." He said, "Perhaps this decisive moment we have reached is that point where Iran can show a better face to the international community"... CNN, April 6, 2022).
Thus, America has supported Hadi's step of relinquishing his powers to the council, and it focuses on Iran playing an active role in Yemen and subsequently involving the Houthis in governance, as the Houthis cannot survive without Iranian support.
Britain's position: (British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss welcomed today, Friday, the announcement by Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Hadi of the formation of a Presidential Leadership Council comprising representatives of various social and political forces. Truss, as reported by the Yemen satellite channel, expressed her welcome of the announcement by Saudi Arabia and the UAE of aid worth $3 billion to support the Yemeni economy... April 8, 2022 https://alwafd.news/). (Richard Oppenheim—the British Ambassador to Yemen—explained in an exclusive interview with the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper published today, Thursday, that the results of the Yemeni-Yemeni consultations, which conclude today at the headquarters of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Riyadh, can be utilized in future talks under the auspices of the UN Special Envoy... pointing out at the same time that the success of the truce is in the hands of the parties, not the observers. Oppenheim stressed that his country encourages any dialogue that leads to solving the Yemen problem, noting that any agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis will be a basis for the final political solution... April 7, 2022 https://www.dw.com/)
Third: By pondering the above, the following becomes clear:
The Saudi military intervention that began in 2015 was aimed, as America planned, at consolidating the Houthis rather than eliminating them. Likewise, the Stockholm Agreement held at American instigation in 2018 prevented the UAE and the Yemeni forces it supports from seizing control of Hodeidah, and forced them to retreat from advancing toward Sana'a and liberating it from the Houthis as Britain had been planning... So Britain began thinking about a "temporary" solution with America, prompting its agent Hadi to take this step. This is evident from the words of the British Ambassador to Yemen, Richard Oppenheim, who participated in the conference activities, saying: ("The Houthis are welcome to participate in discussions and consultations under the auspices of the Cooperation Council, and it is in their hands to take this opportunity. There will be an opportunity in the future under the auspices of the Cooperation Council elsewhere in the region and also under the auspices of the UN Envoy. The Houthis must be part of the negotiations because they are an important part of the Yemeni political landscape"... Asharq Al-Awsat, April 7, 2022). The British Ambassador, who represented his country at the Riyadh conference, announced the changes that have occurred in the British position since 2016. It appears that Britain has leaned toward involving the Houthis since it could not eliminate them or remove them from Sana'a through its agents in the UAE and the Yemeni forces it funds.
The UN Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, arrived in Sana'a for the first time on April 11, 2022, since taking office 8 months ago, and met with Houthi officials. A statement from his office said: ("Grundberg’s plane landed in Sana’a with the aim of urging the Houthi leadership to implement and strengthen a 60-day ceasefire in the war-torn state"... AP, April 11, 2022). At the conclusion of his visit, he said: ("He discussed with (Houthi) political leaders in Sana’a the developments of implementing the truce in all its elements and ways to build on it as a step toward a comprehensive political solution to the conflict"... Anadolu, April 13, 2022). Thus, the UN envoy carried the decisions of the recent conference to the Houthis to prepare them for negotiations after stripping powers from President Hadi and giving them to a presidential council. (The Security Council, in a statement issued unanimously (15 countries), expressed hope that the formation of the council would represent "an important step toward stability and a comprehensive political settlement led by Yemenis under UN auspices." It called on the Houthi group to "engage and work with the UN Special Envoy (Hans Grundberg) in his efforts to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire and negotiate a comprehensive political solution"... aa.com.tr).
The members of the Presidential Council are mostly loyal to Britain. The conference to approve the council was sponsored by Saudi Arabia, which is loyal to America, and was held there in Riyadh. Although the Houthis did not attend it, Iran and the Houthis who follow in its footsteps agreed to the truce that was a prelude to the council's approval. Furthermore, America and Britain agreed to the truce and the council even though they had managed a war for each to have exclusive influence over Yemen’s affairs. But now they and their regional and local tools have agreed to the truce and the council! All this indicates that significant reasons have arisen in the situation that pushed both America and Britain to leave their contradiction regarding each seeking exclusivity in Yemen, and instead move toward a compromise solution, even if "temporarily" at this stage... As for these reasons, they can be understood from the developments that have occurred in recent weeks or months, which are as follows:
A. The war in Ukraine and its repercussions on America and European countries, especially England, as these countries have directed most of their attention toward that war.
B. The targeting of Saudi oil industry infrastructure by Sana'a forces with cruise missiles, and its repercussions on the future of global oil supplies. This comes at a time when America promised European countries, against the backdrop of the Russian war in Ukraine, to provide an alternative to Russia for energy sources in Europe. Since Saudi Arabia can pump large quantities of oil, it can fill a large part of the European need for oil as a substitute for Russian oil. From another equally important perspective, increasing Saudi oil pumping works to curb prices in the markets, which increases the Democratic Party's chances in the midterm Congressional elections in November 2022: (An official source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Riyadh "will not bear responsibility for any shortage in oil supplies to global markets in light of the attacks it is subjected to." France 24, March 25, 2022). All this was pushing America to calm the situation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia...
C. The United States' preoccupation with the conflict with China in the Far East and the East China Sea...
D. Hadi's failure to impose his authority over Yemen, which has been going through successive crises since his election in 2012, which affected its performance...
E. The continuation of this war for about seven years without any of the conflicting parties led by America and Britain being able to achieve their goals...
F. Finally, the current circumstances of America as well as Britain's circumstances pushed them toward this compromise:
America, for its part, realizes the strength of British influence in the political medium in Yemen and realizes its influence over some northern tribes that have gathered and are fighting the Houthis very fiercely in Marib, preventing them from tightening control over northern Yemen. It also sees that the militias supported by the UAE have succeeded in tightening their control almost over the south. This means that America sees that the Houthis are incapable of controlling all of Yemen, which makes America accept the division of influence in Yemen with Britain after it had nothing significant in terms of influence before 2014.
As for Britain, which lost influence in Saudi Arabia with the arrival of Salman and his son to power in 2015, and Saudi Arabia began working for the benefit of America, Britain's regional tools have consequently weakened. This new reality, in the face of these major regional changes—especially if added to America's expansion of the Iranian role in the region—makes Britain unable to bring the situation in Yemen back under its grip. Therefore, it also accepts dividing influence with the Americans in Yemen. This conviction from both sides (America and Britain) creates a suitable atmosphere for a political solution in Yemen.
Thus, the truce, this decision, and the formation of the council have all taken place through an American-British compromise, and the agents and those sailing in their orbit followed this compromise... However, there is something that must not be forgotten: colonialist countries are usually keen on having exclusive influence in colonized countries and do not resort to compromise unless forced to. They resort to compromise temporarily, and then each works with their malicious means to pull the rug out from under the other... Therefore, the continuation of this compromise is proportional to the reasons mentioned above. In all cases, this compromise is not a permanent one that America and Britain will follow; rather, the conflict between them will continue, even if by non-apparent methods, until the conditions that called for this compromise change, at which point the sound of conflict will rise again. The broad line for colonialist powers is that they play the game of time; if they cannot achieve their goals of exclusive influence immediately, they leave the matter to time to make further attempts to achieve their goals...
Yemen is a place of international conflict between America and Britain and their tools among regional and local powers. The victims are the people of Yemen, as they are the fuel and target of this conflict, which has caused famine, poverty, and the deterioration of conditions in all aspects. There is no savior for them except returning to Allah, relying on Him, rejecting all these tools and their masters, and working with the sincere people to establish the rule of Allah, embodied in a Rightly Guided Khilafah (Caliphate) upon the method of the Prophethood.
وَمَنْ يَتَّقِ اللَّهَ يَجْعَلْ لَهُ مَخْرَجاً*وَيَرْزُقْهُ مِنْ حَيْثُ لَا يَحْتَسِبُ وَمَنْ يَتَوَكَّلْ عَلَى اللَّهِ فَهُوَ حَسْبُهُ إِنَّ اللَّهَ بَالِغُ أَمْرِهِ قَدْ جَعَلَ اللَّهُ لِكُلِّ شَيْءٍ قَدْراً
"And whoever fears Allah - He will make for him a way out and will provide for him from where he does not expect. And whoever relies upon Allah - then He is sufficient for him. Indeed, Allah will accomplish His purpose. Allah has already set for everything a [decreed] extent." (Surah At-Talaq 65:2-3)
19th of the Blessed Month of Ramadan, 1443 AH April 20, 2022 CE